Current Oil Market Developments And Their Impacts On The Gulf Cooperation Council
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Current Oil Market Developments And Their Impacts On The Gulf Cooperation Council
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Author : The Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research
language : en
Publisher: Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research
Release Date : 2019-07-16
Current Oil Market Developments And Their Impacts On The Gulf Cooperation Council written by The Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research and has been published by Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-16 with Antiques & Collectibles categories.
Current Oil Market Developments and Their Impacts on the GCC comes at a time when global oil markets are witnessing substantial change. Oil prices have fluctuated from unprecedented highs to free falling by the end of 2008, and experiencing another steep drop by 2014. Other dramatic changes include a surge in global oil supply, weakness in demand (partly caused by slow growth in emerging countries), exploitation of oil shale, advancements in oil-extraction technology, and the emergence of renewable and clean energy sources. These developments have all impacted oil markets in particular and the global economy in general. In addressing the topic, this book consists of four chapters that examine these developments in depth to determine their implications and potential effects, suggesting recommendations that will serve the goals and development objectives of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and beyond. It focuses on global oil supply and demand, geopolitical factors related to the Russian–Ukrainian crisis, potential Iranian–Western convergence, and the implications of all these factors on both GCC and global energy markets. Its chapters examine issues such as the latest energy market developments and challenges to conventional oil supply. The developments detailed require constant monitoring to safeguard global energy security and serve development goals around the world. While the GCC has great interest in oil-related issues, the countries are also planning for the future by simultaneously working on establishing diversified, knowledge-based economies that are less dependent on conventional resources.
Oil Prices And Gcc Stock Markets New Evidence From Smooth Transition Models
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Author : Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-05-09
Oil Prices And Gcc Stock Markets New Evidence From Smooth Transition Models written by Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results reveal that GCC stock markets do not have similar sensitivities to oil price changes. We document the presence of stock market returns’ asymmetric reactions in some GCC countries, but not for others. In Kuwait’s case, negative oil price changes exert larger impacts on stock returns than positive oil price changes. When considering the asymmetry with respect to the magnitude of oil price variation, we find that Oman’s and Qatar’s stock markets are more sensitive to large oil price changes than to small ones. Our results highlight the importance of economic stabilization and reform policies that can potentially reduce the sensitivity of stock returns to oil price changes, especially with regard to the existence of asymmetric behavior.
Gulf Cooperation Council
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-12-14
Gulf Cooperation Council written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-12-14 with Business & Economics categories.
Global economic activity is gaining momentum. Global growth is forecast at 3.6 percent this year, and 3.7 percent in 2018, compared to 3.2 percent in 2016. Risks around this forecast are broadly balanced in the near term, but are skewed to the downside over the medium term. The more positive global growth environment should support somewhat stronger oil demand. With inflation in advanced countries remaining subdued, monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative. GCC countries are continuing to adjust to lower oil prices. Substantial fiscal consolidation has taken place in most countries, mainly focused on expenditure reduction. This is necessary, but it has weakened non-oil growth. With the pace of fiscal consolidation set to slow, non-oil growth is expected to increase to 2.6 percent this year, from 1.8 percent last year. However, because of lower oil output, overall real GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.5 percent in 2017 from 2.2 percent in 2016. Growth prospects in the medium-term remain subdued amid relatively low oil prices and geopolitical risks. Policymakers have made a strong start in adjusting fiscal policy. While the needed pace of fiscal adjustment varies across countries depending on the fiscal space available, in general countries should continue to focus on recurrent expenditure rationalization, further energy price reforms, increased non-oil revenues, and improved efficiency of capital spending. Fiscal consolidation should be accompanied by a further improvement in fiscal frameworks and institutions. The direction of fiscal policy in the GCC is broadly consistent with these recommendations. Policies should continue to be geared toward managing evolving liquidity situations in the banking system and supporting the private sector’s access to funding. While countries have made progress in enhancing their financial policy frameworks, strengthening liquidity forecasting and developing liquidity management instruments will help banks adjust to a tighter liquidity environment. Banks generally remain profitable, well capitalized, and liquid, but with growth expected to remain relatively weak, the monitoring of financial sector vulnerabilities should continue to be enhanced. Diversification and private sector development will be needed to offset lower government spending and ensure stronger, sustainable, and inclusive growth. This will require stepped-up reforms to improve the business climate and reduce the role of the public sector in the economy through privatization and PPPs. Reforms are needed to increase the incentives for nationals to work in the private sector and for private sector firms to hire them. Increasing female participation in the labor market and employment would benefit productivity and growth across the region. Where fiscal space is available, fiscal policy can be used to support the structural reforms needed to boost private sector growth and employment.
The Future Of Oil And Fiscal Sustainability In The Gcc Region
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Author : Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-02-06
The Future Of Oil And Fiscal Sustainability In The Gcc Region written by Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-02-06 with Business & Economics categories.
The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.
Gulf Cooperation Council Economic Prospects And Policy Challenges For The Gcc Countries
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-12-14
Gulf Cooperation Council Economic Prospects And Policy Challenges For The Gcc Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-12-14 with Business & Economics categories.
The GCC region’s non-hydrocarbon growth momentum remains strong, driven by higher domestic demand, increased gross capital inflows, and reform implementation. Oil production – which depends on OPEC+ decisions – will be subdued in the near term. Inflation is contained and current account surpluses are high. Fiscal balances remain healthy, supported by fiscal reforms and high oil prices. The primary non-oil deficits are expected to decrease to 24 percent of GDP by 2028, with higher non-oil revenue reflecting sustained fiscal and structural reforms and contained expenditures. High global uncertainty is weighing on the outlook.
Gulf Cooperation Council Gcc Economic Prospects And Policy Challenges For The Gcc Countries
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-11-13
Gulf Cooperation Council Gcc Economic Prospects And Policy Challenges For The Gcc Countries written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-13 with Business & Economics categories.
The global and regional economic environment remains challenging. Global growth remains tepid, and although some pick-up is expected, risks are tilted to the downside. Recent volatility in financial markets is having a significant impact on some large emerging markets, highlighting the challenges that will be faced in unwinding the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy. Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East are also high.
Gulf Cooperation Council
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-11-29
Gulf Cooperation Council written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-11-29 with Business & Economics categories.
GCC policymakers have managed to quickly mitigate the economic impact of the twin COVID-19 and oil price shock. Commodity prices have surged, and the outlook is more positive for GCC countries, with new challenges linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tighter global financial conditions expected to have a limited impact on GCC economies. While GCC countries have overall benefited from higher, albeit volatile hydrocarbon prices, numerous risks still cloud the outlook—notably a slowdown in the global economy. In this context, the reform momentum established during the low oil price years should be maintained—irrespective of the level of hydrocarbon prices.
Economic Diversification In The Gcc
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Author : Mr.Tim Callen
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-12-23
Economic Diversification In The Gcc written by Mr.Tim Callen and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-12-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, success to date has been limited. This paper argues that increased diversification will require realigning incentives for firms and workers in the economies—fixing these incentives is the “missing link” in the GCC countries’ diversification strategies. At present, producing non-tradables is less risky and more profitable for firms as they can benefit from the easy availability of low-wage foreign labor and the rapid growth in government spending, while the continued availability of high-paying and secure public sector jobs discourages nationals from pursuing entrepreneurship and private sector employment. Measures to begin to address these incentive issues could include limiting and reorienting government spending, strengthening private sector competition, providing guarantees and financial support for those firms engaged in export activity, and implementing labor market reforms to make nationals more competitive for private sector employment.
Gulf Cooperation Council Gcc Labor Market Reforms To Boost Employment And Productivity In The Gcc
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-11-13
Gulf Cooperation Council Gcc Labor Market Reforms To Boost Employment And Productivity In The Gcc written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-13 with Business & Economics categories.
The GCC growth model has delivered substantial improvements in living standards over several decades. Access to foreign labor has supported rapid growth in the non-oil sector and price stability in the region. It has also resulted in positive spillovers to the migrant-sending countries through large remittance flows. At the same time, governments have increased public-sector employment and have helped raise standards of living. However, the growth model has involved costs: the public-sector wage bill is relatively high, there is limited employment of nationals in the private sector, labor productivity has declined or stagnated, and there is limited progress on economic diversification
Gulf Cooperation Council Countries Gcc
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Author : Samya Beidas-Strom
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011-10-02
Gulf Cooperation Council Countries Gcc written by Samya Beidas-Strom and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-10-02 with categories.
Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.