Dangerous Thresholds Managing Escalation In The 21st Century
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Dangerous Thresholds
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Author : Forrest E. Morgan
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2008-07-29
Dangerous Thresholds written by Forrest E. Morgan and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-07-29 with Political Science categories.
Escalation is a natural tendency in any form of human competition, and today's security environment demands that the United States be prepared for a host of escalatory threats. This analysis of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on a range of historical examples from World War I to the struggle against global Jihad to inform escalation-related decisionmaking.
Dangerous Thresholds Managing Escalation In The 21st Century
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Dangerous Thresholds Managing Escalation In The 21st Century written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with categories.
The subject of escalation has received little attention in U.S. strategic thought since the end of the Cold War. With prospects of conflict between nuclear-armed superpowers receding in memory, few policymakers, security analysts, or military leaders have worried about the danger of wars spinning out of control or considered how to manage these risks. Yet there are important reasons to examine the dynamics of escalation in the current security environment. Although the United States retains its nuclear superiority and has demonstrated the ability to pro- project overwhelming force in most conventional conflicts, strategic conditions have changed considerably in the past 15 years, and new adversaries have emerged. These developments could find the United States in escalatory situations that its leaders, schooled in ideas developed during the Cold War, are ill equipped to anticipate or manage. Understanding escalation is particularly important to the U.S. Air Force because of its unique ability to strike deep within enemy territory and the emphasis in Air Force doctrine on rapid strategic attack to achieve shock, paralysis, and escalation dominance. The Air Force recognizes the importance of understanding and managing the risks of escalation. In 2004, Director of Air Force Strategic Planning Major General Ronald J. Bath sponsored a war game in which uncontrolled escalation occurred, surprising players and controllers alike. Because this experience was just one in a series of escalatory events occurring in major war games over the past several years, General Bath recommended to Air Force Chief of Staff General John P. Jumper that the RAND Corporation be tasked to examine the risks of escalation in the current security environment and offer recommendations on how the Air Force can best anticipate and manage those risks.
2012 Report To Congress Of The U S China Economic And Security Review Commission
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Author : U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
2012 Report To Congress Of The U S China Economic And Security Review Commission written by U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with China categories.
Report To Congress Of The U S China Economic And Security Review Commission
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Author : U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Report To Congress Of The U S China Economic And Security Review Commission written by U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with China categories.
On Limited Nuclear War In The 21st Century
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Author : Jeffrey A Larsen
language : en
Publisher: Stanford University Press
Release Date : 2014-04-02
On Limited Nuclear War In The 21st Century written by Jeffrey A Larsen and has been published by Stanford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-02 with Political Science categories.
These essays by nuclear policy experts provide “a speculative but serious and well-informed journey through a variety of scenarios and contingencies” (Foreign Affairs). Recent decades have seen a slow but steady increase in nuclear armed states, and in the seemingly less constrained policy goals of some of the newer “rogue” states in the international system. The authors of On Limited Nuclear War in the 21st Century argue that a time may come when one of these states makes the conscious decision that using a nuclear weapon against the United States, its allies, or forward deployed forces in the context of a crisis or a regional conventional conflict may be in its interests. They assert that we are unprepared for these types of limited nuclear wars and that it is urgent we rethink the theory, policy, and implementation of force related to our approaches to this type of engagement. Together they critique Cold War doctrine on limited nuclear war and consider a number of the key concepts that should govern our approach to limited nuclear conflict in the future. These include identifying the factors likely to lead to limited nuclear war; examining the geopolitics of future conflict scenarios that might lead to small-scale nuclear use; and assessing strategies for crisis management and escalation control. Finally, they consider a range of strategies and operational concepts for countering, controlling, or containing limited nuclear war. “A series of trenchant essays that deconstruct a critical national security challenge that most of us wish did not exist. Assembling a star-studded cast of scholars, analysts, and policy practitioners, Larsen and Kartchner have produced some of the most important new thinking on an old topic.” —H-Diplo
Emerging Technologies And International Stability
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Author : Todd S. Sechser
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2021-11-28
Emerging Technologies And International Stability written by Todd S. Sechser and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-11-28 with History categories.
Technology has always played a central role in international politics; it shapes the ways states fight during wartime and compete during peacetime. Today, rapid advancements have contributed to a widespread sense that the world is again on the precipice of a new technological era. Emerging technologies have inspired much speculative commentary, but academic scholarship can improve the discussion with disciplined theory-building and rigorous empirics. This book aims to contribute to the debate by exploring the role of technology – both military and non-military – in shaping international security. Specifically, the contributors to this edited volume aim to generate new theoretical insights into the relationship between technology and strategic stability, test them with sound empirical methods, and derive their implications for the coming technological age. This book is very novel in its approach. It covers a wide range of technologies, both old and new, rather than emphasizing a single technology. Furthermore, this volume looks at how new technologies might affect the broader dynamics of the international system rather than limiting the focus to a stability. The contributions to this volume walk readers through the likely effects of emerging technologies at each phase of the conflict process. The chapters begin with competition in peacetime, move to deterrence and coercion, and then explore the dynamics of crises, the outbreak of conflict, and war escalation in an environment of emerging technologies. The chapters in this book, except for the Introduction and the Conclusion, were originally published in the Journal of Strategic Studies.
Back To The Brink
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Author : Tim Sweijs
language : en
Publisher: The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Release Date : 2016-03-10
Back To The Brink written by Tim Sweijs and has been published by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-10 with categories.
The Case For U S Nuclear Weapons In The 21st Century
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Author : Brad Roberts
language : en
Publisher: Stanford University Press
Release Date : 2015-12-09
The Case For U S Nuclear Weapons In The 21st Century written by Brad Roberts and has been published by Stanford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-09 with Political Science categories.
“An excellent contribution to the debate on the future role of nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence in American foreign policy.” ―Contemporary Security Policy This book is a counter to the conventional wisdom that the United States can and should do more to reduce both the role of nuclear weapons in its security strategies and the number of weapons in its arsenal. The case against nuclear weapons has been made on many grounds—including historical, political, and moral. But, Brad Roberts argues, it has not so far been informed by the experience of the United States since the Cold War in trying to adapt deterrence to a changed world, and to create the conditions that would allow further significant changes to U.S. nuclear policy and posture. Drawing on the author’s experience in the making and implementation of U.S. policy in the Obama administration, this book examines that real-world experience and finds important lessons for the disarmament enterprise. Central conclusions of the work are that other nuclear-armed states are not prepared to join the United States in making reductions, and that unilateral steps by the United States to disarm further would be harmful to its interests and those of its allies. The book ultimately argues in favor of patience and persistence in the implementation of a balanced approach to nuclear strategy that encompasses political efforts to reduce nuclear dangers along with military efforts to deter them. “Well-researched and carefully argued.” ―Foreign Affairs
Restraining Air Power
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Author : Robert C. Owen
language : en
Publisher: University Press of Kentucky
Release Date : 2022-11-29
Restraining Air Power written by Robert C. Owen and has been published by University Press of Kentucky this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-11-29 with History categories.
Is it possible for two combatants who possess equally strong air forces to conduct limited warfare by restraining air operations? In Restraining Air Power, Robert C. Owen and contributing authors aim to answer this question by providing theoretical and empirical assessments of restrained air warfare through five historical case studies since 1945. Through an objective analysis of the past, this collection evaluates the principles of escalation and escalation management in conventional warfare scenarios to better understand when, why, and how peer opponents in past conflicts have expanded or restrained air operations. The surge in cyber warfare, the development of artificially intelligent weaponry, and the founding of the United States Space Force in 2019 mean that analysts and military planners must be prepared to think about escalation management and peer conflict in increasingly complicated and arduous ways. This comprehensive study provides readers with refined theoretical visions of the possibilities and challenges of managing escalation as a powerful mode of warfare between opponents who believe they must choose between sacrificing their own national interests or risking escalated destruction of their economies, military forces, and governing authority. The analysis within the pages of this volume updates our understanding of air warfare within a world of unprecedented military complexity and, as such, will hold immense value for specialists in advanced military studies as well as those studying international relations and history.
Countering Coercion In Maritime Asia
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Author : Michael Green
language : en
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Release Date : 2017-05-24
Countering Coercion In Maritime Asia written by Michael Green and has been published by Rowman & Littlefield this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-05-24 with Political Science categories.
In the past decade, tensions in Asia have risen as Beijing has become more assertive in maritime disputes with its neighbors and the United States. Although taking place below the threshold of direct military confrontation, China’s assertiveness frequently involves coercive elements that put at risk existing rules and norms; physical control of disputed waters and territory; and the credibility of U.S. security commitments. Regional leaders have expressed increasing alarm that such “gray zone” coercion threatens to destabilize the region by increasing the risk of conflict and undermining the rules-based order. Yet, the United States and its allies and partners have struggled to develop effective counters to China’s maritime coercion. This study reviews deterrence literature and nine case studies of coercion to develop recommendations for how the United States and its allies and partners could counter gray zone activity.