Debt Surges Drivers Consequences And Policy Implications
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Debt Surges Drivers Consequences And Policy Implications
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Author : Florian Schuster
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-08
Debt Surges Drivers Consequences And Policy Implications written by Florian Schuster and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Many countries find themselves with elevated debt levels, increased debt vulnerabilities, and tight financing conditions, while also facing increased spending needs for development and transition to a greener economy. This paper aims to place the current debt landscape in a historical context and investigate the drivers of debt surges, to what degree they result in a crisis as well as examine post-surge debt trajectories and under what conditions debt follows a non-declining path. We find that fiscal policy and stock-flow adjustments play important roles in debt dynamics with the valuation effects arising from currency depreciation explaining more than half of stock flow adjustments in LICs. Debt surges are estimated to result in a financial crisis with a probability of 11–20 percent and spending-driven fiscal expansions during debt surges tend to result in a high probability of non-declining debt path.
Global Waves Of Debt
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Author : M. Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-03-04
Global Waves Of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-04 with Business & Economics categories.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
The Liquidation Of Government Debt
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Author : Ms.Carmen Reinhart
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-01-21
The Liquidation Of Government Debt written by Ms.Carmen Reinhart and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-21 with Business & Economics categories.
High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.
Fiscal Monitor October 2024
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-10-23
Fiscal Monitor October 2024 written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-10-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Global public debt is elevated. It is projected to exceed US$100 trillion in 2024 and will rise over the medium term. This chapter shows that risks to the debt outlook are heavily tilted to the upside. In a severely adverse scenario, global debt is estimated to be nearly 20 percentage points of GDP higher three years ahead than the baseline projection, reaching 115 percent of GDP. Much larger fiscal adjustments than currently planned are required to stabilize (or reduce) debt with high probability. Now is an opportune time for rebuilding fiscal buffers and delaying is costly. Rebuilding fiscal buffers in a growth-friendly manner and strengthening fiscal governance is essential to ensure sustainable public finances and financial stability.
The Volatility Machine
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Author : Michael Pettis
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2001
The Volatility Machine written by Michael Pettis and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with Business & Economics categories.
This book presents a radically different argument for what has caused, and likely will continue to cause, the collapse of emerging market economies. Pettis combines the insights of economic history, economic theory, and finance theory into a comprehensive model for understanding sovereign liability management and the causes of financial crises. He examines recent financial crises in emerging market countries along with the history of international lending since the 1820s to argue that the process of international lending is driven primarily by external events and not by local politics and/or economic policies. He draws out the corporate finance implications of this approach to argue that most of the current analyses of the recent financial crises suffered by Latin America, Asia, and Russia have largely missed the point. He then develops a sovereign finance model, analogous to corporate finance, to understand the capital structure needs of emerging market countries. Using this model, he finally puts into perspective the recent crises, a new sovereign liability management theory, the implications of the model for sovereign debt restructurings, and the new financial architecture. Bridging the gap between finance specialists and traders, on the one hand, and economists and policy-makers on the other, The Volatility Machine is critical reading for anyone interested in where the international economy is going over the next several years.
Fiscal Policy In A Turbulent Era
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Author : Enrique Alberola
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2024-02-12
Fiscal Policy In A Turbulent Era written by Enrique Alberola and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-02-12 with Business & Economics categories.
Recognising the regained importance of fiscal policy over the last two decades, this timely book provides much-needed insight into the changing practice of fiscal policy and how it is adapting to the unpredictable nature of the 21st century. Expert academic and practitioner contributors consider the resources which underpin current fiscal policy, assessing its overall effectiveness before outlining the changing priorities –ageing, inequality, climate change- and the financial tools available, and considering the future of fiscal policy in uncertain times.
External Debt Statistics
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-06-25
External Debt Statistics written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-06-25 with Business & Economics categories.
This Guide provides clear, up-to-date guidance on the concepts, definitions, and classifications of the gross external debt of the public and private sectors, and on the sources, compilation techniques, and analytical uses of these data. The Guide supersedes the previous international guidance on external debt statistics available in External Debt: Definition, Statistical Coverage, and Methodology (known as the Gray Book), 1988. The Guides conceptual framework derives from the System of National Accounts 1993 and the fifth edition of the IMFs Balance of Payments Manual(1993). Preparation of the Guide was undertaken by an Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics, chaired by the IMF and involving representatives from the BIS, the Commonwealth Secretariat, the European Central Bank, Eurostat, the OECD, the Paris Club Secretariat, UNCTAD, and the World Bank.
Global Debt Database Methodology And Sources
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Author : Samba Mbaye
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-05-14
Global Debt Database Methodology And Sources written by Samba Mbaye and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-14 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper describes the compilation of the Global Debt Database (GDD), a cutting-edge dataset covering private and public debt for virtually the entire world (190 countries) dating back to the 1950s. The GDD is the result of a multiyear investigative process that started with the October 2016 Fiscal Monitor, which pioneered the expansion of private debt series to a global sample. It differs from existing datasets in three major ways. First, it takes a fundamentally new approach to compiling historical data. Where most debt datasets either provide long series with a narrow and changing definition of debt or comprehensive debt concepts over a short period, the GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by offering multiple debt series with different coverages, thus ensuring consistency across time. Second, it more than doubles the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt datasets. Finally, the integrity of the data has been checked through bilateral consultations with officials and IMF country desks of all countries in the sample, setting a higher data quality standard.
Surges
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Author : Mr.Atish R. Ghosh
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-01-01
Surges written by Mr.Atish R. Ghosh and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper examines why surges in capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) occur, and what determines the allocation of capital across countries during such surge episodes. We use two different methodologies to identify surges in EMEs over 1980-2009, differentiating between those mainly caused by changes in the country's external liabilities (reflecting the investment decisions of foreigners), and those caused by changes in its assets (reflecting the decisions of residents). Global factors-including US interest rates and risk aversion¡-are key to determining whether a surge will occur, but domestic factors such as the country's external financing needs (as implied by an intertemporal optimizing model of the current account) and structural characteristics also matter, which explains why not all EMEs experience surges. Conditional on a surge occurring, moreover, the magnitude of the capital inflow depends largely on domestic factors including the country's external financing needs, and the exchange rate regime. Finally, while similar factors explain asset- and liability-driven surges, the latter are more sensitive to global factors and contagion.
World Bank East Asia And Pacific Economic Update October 2022
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Author : World Bank
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2022-09-30
World Bank East Asia And Pacific Economic Update October 2022 written by World Bank and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-09-30 with Business & Economics categories.
East Asia and the Pacific does not so far conform to the current narrative of stagflation. The region, with some exceptions, is growing faster and has lower inflation than other regions. And prospects for several countries have improved, as they bounced back from the distress of the Delta wave in a still buoyant global economy. But this rosy picture must not obscure four impediments to inclusive and sustainable growth: disease, deceleration, debt, and distortions. In particular, current policies to contain inflation and debt are distorting the markets for food, fuel and finance in ways that could compromise development goals. In each case, more efficient measures could address current difficulties without undermining longer term objectives.