Decision Theory With Imperfect Information

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Decision Theory With Imperfect Information

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Author : Aliev Rafig Aziz
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2014-08-08

Decision Theory With Imperfect Information written by Aliev Rafig Aziz and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-08-08 with Mathematics categories.

Every day decision making in complex human-centric systems are characterized by imperfect decision-relevant information. The principal problems with the existing decision theories are that they do not have capability to deal with situations in which probabilities and events are imprecise. In this book, we describe a new theory of decision making with imperfect information. The aim is to shift the foundation of decision analysis and economic behavior from the realm bivalent logic to the realm fuzzy logic and Z-restriction, from external modeling of behavioral decisions to the framework of combined states.This book will be helpful for professionals, academics, managers and graduate students in fuzzy logic, decision sciences, artificial intelligence, mathematical economics, and computational economics.

Decision Making With Imperfect Decision Makers

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Author : Tatiana Valentine Guy
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2011-11-13

Decision Making With Imperfect Decision Makers written by Tatiana Valentine Guy and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-11-13 with Technology & Engineering categories.

Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, little research has been done from the perspective of computer science and associated disciplines like machine learning, information theory and neuroscience. This book is a major contribution to such research. Some of the particular topics addressed include: How should we formalise rational decision making of a single imperfect decision maker? Does the answer change for a system of imperfect decision makers? Can we extend existing prescriptive theories for perfect decision makers to make them useful for imperfect ones? How can we exploit the relation of these problems to the control under varying and uncertain resources constraints as well as to the problem of the computational decision making? What can we learn from natural, engineered, and social systems to help us address these issues?

Fundamentals Of The Fuzzy Logic Based Generalized Theory Of Decisions

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Author : Rafik Aziz Aliev
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2013-01-12

Fundamentals Of The Fuzzy Logic Based Generalized Theory Of Decisions written by Rafik Aziz Aliev and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-12 with Computers categories.

Every day decision making and decision making in complex human-centric systems are characterized by imperfect decision-relevant information. Main drawback of the existing decision theories is namely incapability to deal with imperfect information and modeling vague preferences. Actually, a paradigm of non-numerical probabilities in decision making has a long history and arose also in Keynes’s analysis of uncertainty. There is a need for further generalization – a move to decision theories with perception-based imperfect information described in NL. The languages of new decision models for human-centric systems should be not languages based on binary logic but human-centric computational schemes able to operate on NL-described information. Development of new theories is now possible due to an increased computational power of information processing systems which allows for computations with imperfect information, particularly, imprecise and partially true information, which are much more complex than computations over numbers and probabilities. The monograph exposes the foundations of a new decision theory with imperfect decision-relevant information on environment and a decision maker’s behavior. This theory is based on the synthesis of the fuzzy sets theory with perception-based information and the probability theory. The book is self containing and represents in a systematic way the decision theory with imperfect information into the educational systems. The book will be helpful for teachers and students of universities and colleges, for managers and specialists from various fields of business and economics, production and social sphere.

Uncertain Computation Based Decision Theory

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Author : Rafik Aziz Aliev
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2017-12-06

Uncertain Computation Based Decision Theory written by Rafik Aziz Aliev and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-12-06 with Computers categories.

Uncertain computation is a system of computation and reasoning in which the objects of computation are not values of variables but restrictions on values of variables.This compendium includes uncertain computation examples based on interval arithmetic, probabilistic arithmetic, fuzzy arithmetic, Z-number arithmetic, and arithmetic with geometric primitives.The principal problem with the existing decision theories is that they do not have capabilities to deal with such environment. Up to now, no books where decision theories based on all generalizations level of information are considered. Thus, this self-containing volume intends to overcome this gap between real-world settings' decisions and their formal analysis.

Fundamentals Of The Fuzzy Logic Based Generalized Theory Of Decisions

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Author : Rafik Aziz Aliev
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2013-01-12

Fundamentals Of The Fuzzy Logic Based Generalized Theory Of Decisions written by Rafik Aziz Aliev and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-12 with Technology & Engineering categories.

Every day decision making and decision making in complex human-centric systems are characterized by imperfect decision-relevant information. Main drawback of the existing decision theories is namely incapability to deal with imperfect information and modeling vague preferences. Actually, a paradigm of non-numerical probabilities in decision making has a long history and arose also in Keynes’s analysis of uncertainty. There is a need for further generalization – a move to decision theories with perception-based imperfect information described in NL. The languages of new decision models for human-centric systems should be not languages based on binary logic but human-centric computational schemes able to operate on NL-described information. Development of new theories is now possible due to an increased computational power of information processing systems which allows for computations with imperfect information, particularly, imprecise and partially true information, which are much more complex than computations over numbers and probabilities. The monograph exposes the foundations of a new decision theory with imperfect decision-relevant information on environment and a decision maker’s behavior. This theory is based on the synthesis of the fuzzy sets theory with perception-based information and the probability theory. The book is self containing and represents in a systematic way the decision theory with imperfect information into the educational systems. The book will be helpful for teachers and students of universities and colleges, for managers and specialists from various fields of business and economics, production and social sphere.

Value Of Information In The Earth Sciences

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Author : Jo Eidsvik
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2015-11-19

Value Of Information In The Earth Sciences written by Jo Eidsvik and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-19 with Business & Economics categories.

This book presents a unified framework for assessing the value of potential data-gathering schemes, with a focus on the Earth sciences.

Decision Analysis Game Theory And Information

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Author : Louis Kaplow
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004

Decision Analysis Game Theory And Information written by Louis Kaplow and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Analysis (Philosophy) categories.

Decision Analysis, Game Theory, and Information teaches the basics of decision analysis and game theory, the fundamental tools used over the past half-century by clients, whether businesses, government institutions, or other entities or individuals. Additionally, a brief introduction to basic concepts involving imperfect information concerning other parties are introduced. This handbook is designed for use as a supplementary test for a first-year course, and could also be used in connection with a course on legal methods or law and economics.This handbook comprises Chapters 1 and 2 of Analytical Methods for Lawyers, with appendix and revisions.

The Economics Of Imperfect Information

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Author : Louis Phlips
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1988

The Economics Of Imperfect Information written by Louis Phlips and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988 with Business & Economics categories.

This book provides a systematic presentation of new microeconomic theories of imperfect information.

Uncertainty In Strategic Decision Making

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Author : Richard J. Arend
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2024-01-03

Uncertainty In Strategic Decision Making written by Richard J. Arend and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-01-03 with Business & Economics categories.

Knight (1921) defines uncertainty as an informational market failure that, while being detrimental to most existing businesses, presents possible profitable opportunities for others. This book builds upon that classic work by providing an analysis of the alternative approaches to strategic decision-making under such uncertainty. It covers what uncertainty is, why it is important, and what connections it has to business and related fields, culminating in a new and comprehensive typology and a valuable guide for how to appropriately address various types of uncertainties, even under AI. It clarifies the current terminological and categorical confusion about ‘unknowns’ while complementing the mathematical, probability-based approaches that treat uncertainty as ‘knowable’ (i.e., as risk). It corrects the mistaken approaches that treat ‘unknowables’ as ‘shapeable’ or ‘discoverable’. This book widens the perspective for viewing uncertainty, in terms of its impacts across humanity, byoffering a shrewder understanding of what roles uncertainties play in human activity. It will appeal to academics across business, economics, philosophy, and other disciplines looking for approaches to apply, test, and hone for dealing with decision-making under uncertainty.