Decisions In The Face Of Uncertainty

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Smart Surgeons Sharp Decisions

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Author : Uttam Shiralkar,
language : en
Publisher: tfm Publishing Limited
Release Date : 2011-01-01

Smart Surgeons Sharp Decisions written by Uttam Shiralkar, and has been published by tfm Publishing Limited this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-01-01 with Medical categories.

Winner of a HIGHLY COMMENDED AWARD in the Surgery category of the 2011 BMA Medical Book Competition. A vital question that concerns many: how to make surgery safer? Is it by tightening the regulations and imposing rigid protocols or by empowering surgeons with the resources to help them make safer decisions? This is the book for those who would choose the second option. What do you think separates smart surgeons from the rest? Why, on the other hand, do surgeons make blunders despite having experience and knowledge? There is only one answer to both questions - it is decision-making. Decision-making is an art and is at the heart of surgery. It decides between excellent and poor surgical performance. Although a vital part of professional activity, surgeons are not generally aware of how to optimize decision-making skills. Making a good decision is a skill that, like any skill, needs to be developed and this book reveals how surgeons can sharpen these skills. Presented here are the findings from decision science that surgeons, irrespective of specialty or seniority, can apply to everyday practice. Surgeons are required to adapt new strategies throughout their careers. Ideas taken from this book will help to speed up the learning curve. It offers answers to the questions which experienced surgeons may find difficult to explain. Equally, it answers the questions that trainees may even find difficult to ask. You are expected to be cognizant of the knowledge behind making decisions. Nonetheless, no-one tells you how to access this information easily. This book is the key to that vital information. "This is a very helpful book, written in a friendly and accessible style. It provides many fascinating examples of the phenomenon which so interests us surgeons. Surgeons of all ages and specialties will find it helpful to know about themselves and how they are challenged." Mr Tony Giddings, Past President of the Association of Surgeons of GB & Ireland

State Decisions In The Face Of Uncertainty

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Author : Indra Spiecker
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2001

State Decisions In The Face Of Uncertainty written by Indra Spiecker and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with categories.

The legal system encounters many problems in facing uncertainty. Neither does a particular theory exist of how to recognize and clarify situations of missing knowledge nor has an explicit theory been designed how to decide in such situations between possible alternatives of action. One reason for this obvious difficulty lies in the structure of law itself: It is aimed at providing stability, predictability and durability. Its mechanism is one of declaring a precise decision rule in a static environment. Situations of uncertainty cause these mechanisms to falter as missing knowledge and missing predictability do not allow for precision and determination. The paper transfers insights from the economic perspective, especially the decision theory, into the legal understanding starting from the definition of Knightian risk and uncertainty as well as the concept of ignorance. Evolutionary approaches are sketched. Therefore, after portraying these differentiations, a particular decision-oriented definition of uncertainty versus risk is proposed that aims specifically at the legal context. Based on this, categories of several different types, origins and reasons of uncertainty are developed. The paper then further studies in an overview the different mechanisms of how legislation could and should deal with uncertainty primarily generating knowledge and the conditions thereof. Here, again, economic concepts are described and transferred to the legal understanding. In a final step, the paper discusses possibilities of legal decision making based on economic and social propositions. A particular emphasis is laid on the concept of proportionality as understood in German public law. Examples from the field of genetic engineering will illustrate the importance of including economic concepts into the legal approach to uncertainty.

The Art Of Making Decisions Under Uncertainty

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Author : Charles Yoe
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2025-09-04

The Art Of Making Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Charles Yoe and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-09-04 with Technology & Engineering categories.

Uncertainty is a part of every decision we make, from the everyday to the high-stakes, from personal choices to professional strategy. The Art of Making Decisions Under Uncertainty offers a clear, practical approach to dealing with the unknown without getting stuck or overwhelmed. Rather than treating uncertainty as a barrier, this book invites readers to see it as a constant companion—something to work with, not work against. Drawing on proven tools, real-world examples, and a wealth of practical insight, it shows how to make thoughtful, informed decisions even when information is incomplete, priorities are competing, and the path forward feels anything but clear. This is not a theory-heavy treatise. It’s a textbook guide for real people facing real decisions. Grounded in decision science but written for a broad audience, it bridges the gap between technical complexity and everyday practicality. Whether you’re leading a team, managing risk, shaping policy, or simply trying to make better personal choices, this book meets you where you are—with tools that work, language that makes sense, and encouragement to move forward with clarity and confidence. Inside you’ll find: Straightforward frameworks to help you recognize and manage different types of uncertainty Practical tools and techniques you can use right away to make sound decisions in fast-moving or high-pressure situations Case studies and examples that bring the concepts to life and show how they apply in work, leadership, and daily life Fresh perspectives on failure, bias, and risk, helping you not only avoid common pitfalls but turn setbacks into sources of insight If you’ve ever hesitated at a crossroads, second-guessed a big decision, or wished for more clarity in a world that rarely offers it, this book is for you. The Art of Making Decisions Under Uncertainty is your companion in making better choices when certainty is out of reach but a good decision is still within your grasp.

The Mathematics Of Politics Second Edition

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Author : E. Arthur Robinson
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2016-11-18

The Mathematics Of Politics Second Edition written by E. Arthur Robinson and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-18 with Mathematics categories.

It is because mathematics is often misunderstood, it is commonly believed it has nothing to say about politics. The high school experience with mathematics, for so many the lasting impression of the subject, suggests that mathematics is the study of numbers, operations, formulas, and manipulations of symbols. Those believing this is the extent of mathematics might conclude mathematics has no relevance to politics. This book counters this impression. The second edition of this popular book focuses on mathematical reasoning about politics. In the search for ideal ways to make certain kinds of decisions, a lot of wasted effort can be averted if mathematics can determine that finding such an ideal is actually impossible in the first place. In the first three parts of this book, we address the following three political questions: (1) Is there a good way to choose winners of elections? (2) Is there a good way to apportion congressional seats? (3) Is there a good way to make decisions in situations of conflict and uncertainty? In the fourth and final part of this book, we examine the Electoral College system that is used in the United States to select a president. There we bring together ideas that are introduced in each of the three earlier parts of the book.

Making Decisions In The Face Of Uncertainty Understanding Risk

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016

Making Decisions In The Face Of Uncertainty Understanding Risk written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with Risk categories.

World Scientific Encyclopedia Of Climate Change Case Studies Of Climate Risk Action And Opportunity In 3 Volumes

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Author : Jan W Dash
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2021-03-18

World Scientific Encyclopedia Of Climate Change Case Studies Of Climate Risk Action And Opportunity In 3 Volumes written by Jan W Dash and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-18 with Science categories.

The Climate Change Encyclopedia responds to the outstanding risk, survival, and ethical issue of our time, requiring action and providing opportunity. Primary-source expert authors write in a unique case-study structure that enables the Encyclopedia to be approachable, informational, and motivational for the public. The key focus areas are Climate Change and Finance, Economics, and Policy, with many other related climate categories included. The over 100 case studies provide realistic and interesting views of climate change, based on authors' published papers, reports, and books, plus climate-related activities of organizations, and selected topics. This inspiring work can enhance optimism and courage to act urgently and persistently on climate change, with foresight for a livable future.For more information on the list of contributors, please refer to https://www.worldscientific.com/page/encyclopedia-of-climate-change.Related Link(s)

A Mathematical Look At Politics

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Author : E. Arthur Robinson Jr.
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2010-12-09

A Mathematical Look At Politics written by E. Arthur Robinson Jr. and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-12-09 with Business & Economics categories.

What Ralph Nader's spoiler role in the 2000 presidential election tells us about the American political system. Why Montana went to court to switch the 1990 apportionment to Dean's method. How the US tried to use game theory to win the Cold War, and why it didn't work. When students realize that mathematical thinking can address these sorts of pres

Decision Theory With A Human Face

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Author : Richard Bradley
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2017-10-26

Decision Theory With A Human Face written by Richard Bradley and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-10-26 with Business & Economics categories.

Explores how decision-makers can manage uncertainty that varies in both kind and severity by extending and supplementing Bayesian decision theory.

Master Decision Making And Win Faster How To Make Smart Choices And Eliminate Regret Forever

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Author : Silas Mary
language : en
Publisher: Recorded Books
Release Date :

Master Decision Making And Win Faster How To Make Smart Choices And Eliminate Regret Forever written by Silas Mary and has been published by Recorded Books this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with Business & Economics categories.

In life and business, making the right decisions quickly is essential for success. But how do you make confident choices without fear of regret or indecision? "Master Decision-Making and Win Faster" teaches you how to master the art of decision-making so you can make smart, effective choices that move you forward and eliminate the paralyzing fear of making mistakes. This book reveals strategies used by top performers to make decisions with clarity, confidence, and speed. You’ll learn how to trust your intuition, process information efficiently, and take calculated risks that lead to success. The book also addresses how to handle decision fatigue, overcome the fear of failure, and develop a decision-making framework that works for you. With the tools in this book, you’ll be able to make better decisions faster, eliminate regret, and move closer to achieving your goals with each choice you make. Whether you’re an entrepreneur, leader, or anyone looking to make more confident decisions in their personal or professional life, this book is your ultimate guide to mastering decision-making and winning faster.

Risk Based Project Decisions In Situations Of High Complexity And Deep Uncertainty

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Author : Yuri G. Raydugin
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2024-06-06

Risk Based Project Decisions In Situations Of High Complexity And Deep Uncertainty written by Yuri G. Raydugin and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-06-06 with Business & Economics categories.

This book integrates for readers three areas of knowledge, pertaining to risk-based project decision making: project risk management (PRM), complexity theory, and decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU). Readers will appreciate that in practice, too often relevant complexity and uncertainty factors are either ignored or overlooked resulting in epic project failures. The author discusses a variety of methodologies and a decision-tree-type framework to determine why, when and how particular methodologies should be applied to ensure project success. These include nonlinear Monte Carlo techniques, a dynamic adaptive methodology to adapt to external environment changes, game theory for devising robust decision-making criteria, systems dynamics and cost escalation modelling, as well as risk-based & economic-based alternatives selection methodologies. This book will be an eye-opener for many PRM practitioners, helping to increase their chances of project success by properly handling inescapable project-complexity and deep-uncertainty implications in specific contexts.