Delays In Climate Transition Can Increase Financial Tail Risks A Global Lesson From A Study In Mexico
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Delays In Climate Transition Can Increase Financial Tail Risks A Global Lesson From A Study In Mexico
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Author : Mr. Dimitrios Laliotis
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-08-25
Delays In Climate Transition Can Increase Financial Tail Risks A Global Lesson From A Study In Mexico written by Mr. Dimitrios Laliotis and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-08-25 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper explores a novel forward-looking approach to study the financial stability implications of climate-related transition risks. We develop an integrated micro-macro framework with a new class of scenario called delayed-uncertain pathways. An additional stochastic financial modeling layer via a jump-diffusion process is considered to capture continuously changing risks, as well as the potential of large/sudden shocks in the financial markets. We applied this approach to study transition risks in the Mexican financial sector. But the implications are global in scope, and the framework is easily adaptable to other countries. We quantify the projections of future distributions of various risk metrics and, hence, the evolving tail risks due to compounding effects from delays in transitioning to a low-carbon economy and the consequent uncertainty of the future policy path. We find that the longer the delays in transition, the larger the future tail financial risks, which could be material to the overall system.
Mexico
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-11
Mexico written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-11 with Business & Economics categories.
A broad-based expansion is underway, with robust domestic demand. Inflation has started to recede, and prudent fiscal policy has kept public debt in check. The changes underway in the global economy—including a shift to a lower carbon economy and the reshaping of supply chains—provide an important opportunity for Mexico. However, a broad set of reforms will be needed to translate this opportunity into improved employment prospects and better living standards.
Financial Regulation Climate Change And The Transition To A Low Carbon Economy A Survey Of The Issues
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Author : Mr. Dimitri G Demekas
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-12-17
Financial Regulation Climate Change And The Transition To A Low Carbon Economy A Survey Of The Issues written by Mr. Dimitri G Demekas and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-17 with Business & Economics categories.
There are demands on central banks and financial regulators to take on new responsibilities for supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy. Regulators can indeed facilitate the reorientation of financial flows necessary for the transition. But their powers should not be overestimated. Their diagnostic and policy toolkits are still in their infancy. They cannot (and should not) expand their mandate unilaterally. Taking on these new responsibilities can also have potential pitfalls and unintended consequences. Ultimately, financial regulators cannot deliver a low-carbon economy by themselves and should not risk being caught again in the role of ‘the only game in town.’
Preparing Financial Sectors For A Green Future
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Author : Bozena Radzewicz-Bak
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-02-12
Preparing Financial Sectors For A Green Future written by Bozena Radzewicz-Bak and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-02-12 with Business & Economics categories.
The financial sectors of the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA) countries should play an important role in supporting climate-related policies for the region. The sectors are vulnerable to downside risks from climate-related shocks and at the same time offer the potential to help fill the financing gap for needed adaptation and mitigation strategies. Successful approaches to climate change in the region therefore need to coherently integrate financial sector strategies within the overall policy framework to meet this important challenge. To this end, policymakers must ensure that financial sectors are prepared for a green future. This means enhancing the resilience of banks to physical and transition risks from climate change and boosting the capacity of insurance sectors to speed recovery from climate-related disasters and help offset economic costs. Moreover, policies are needed to foster an enabling environment for private green finance, attract investment from other official entities, such as sovereign wealth funds (SWF), and facilitate support from international financial institutions and multilateral development banks. In the near term, policy efforts should center around better understanding and measuring climate-related risks. This includes prioritizing the implementation of methodologies for quantifying and reporting such risks, promoting their transparent disclosure by financial institutions, and strengthening frameworks for their forecasting and analyzing. Over the medium term, governments can play an important role in supporting green finance through incentives and market mechanisms, phasing-out energy subsidies, and introducing new tools and markets (such as carbon pricing frameworks), which can stimulate demand for investment in green technologies. The paper offers a unique regional perspective on climate risks in ME&CA's financial sectors and outlines the road ahead in transitioning to a green future. It is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on banking institutions in the region and assess the capacity of insurance in mitigating climate-related damages and losses. It contributes to the existing literature by synthesizing the size and nature of regional financing needs for adaptation and mitigation and discussing both opportunities and challenges for the development of green finance. The paper's policy recommendations provide guidance to policymakers on how to develop regulatory responses to enhance financial sustainability amid climate change risks.
Iceland
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-07-28
Iceland written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-07-28 with Business & Economics categories.
The Icelandic authorities are committed to addressing climate change issues and reaching ambitious objectives to reduce GHG emissions. Iceland is naturally exposed to significant natural hazards, such as volcanic eruptions and extreme weather conditions. The country is also exposed to physical risks resulting from climate change, such as sea acidification and melting glaciers (a long-term risk), as well as climate change transition risks, for instance, concerning the fisheries and transportation sectors. Still, Iceland can leverage its unique assets to overcome challenges of adapting to climate change. One asset is Iceland’s abundant domestically produced renewable energies that cover nearly all the country’s heat and electricity production needs. The 2020 Climate Action Plan and the 2021 Iceland’s Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change include ambitious objectives toward GHG emissions’ neutrality.
Cross Border Risks Of A Global Economy In Mid Transition
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Author : Etienne Espagne
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-09-08
Cross Border Risks Of A Global Economy In Mid Transition written by Etienne Espagne and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-09-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper analyzes the cross-border risks that could result from a decarbonization of the world economy. We develop a typology of cross-border risks and their respective channels. Our qualitative and quantitative scenario analysis suggests that the mid-transition – a period during which fossil-fuel and low-carbon energy systems co-exist and transform at a rapid pace – could have profound stability and resilience implications for global trade and the international financial system.
Macroeconomic And Financial Policies For Climate Change Mitigation A Review Of The Literature
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Author : Signe Krogstrup
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-09-04
Macroeconomic And Financial Policies For Climate Change Mitigation A Review Of The Literature written by Signe Krogstrup and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-04 with Business & Economics categories.
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of this century. Mitigation requires a large-scale transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper provides an overview of the rapidly growing literature on the role of macroeconomic and financial policy tools in enabling this transition. The literature provides a menu of policy tools for mitigation. A key conclusion is that fiscal tools are first in line and central, but can and may need to be complemented by financial and monetary policy instruments. Some tools and policies raise unanswered questions about policy tool assignment and mandates, which we describe. The literature is scarce, however, on the most effective policy mix and the role of mitigation tools and goals in the overall policy framework.
Getting On Track To Net Zero
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Author : Mr. Simon Black
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2022-11-04
Getting On Track To Net Zero written by Mr. Simon Black and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-11-04 with Business & Economics categories.
To contain global warming to between 2°C and 1.5°C, global greenhouse gas emissions must be cut 25 to 50 percent below 2019 levels by 2030. Even if fully achieved, current country pledges would cut global emissions by just 11 percent. This Note presents illustrative options for closing this ambition gap equitably and discusses their economic impacts across countries. Options exist to accelerate a global just transition in this decade, involving greater emission reductions by high-income countries and climate finance, but further delays in climate action would put 1.5°C beyond reach. Global abatement costs remain low under 2°C-consistent scenarios, with burdens rising with income levels. With efficient policies of carbon pricing with productive revenue use, welfare costs become negative when including domestic environmental co-benefits, before even counting climate benefits. GDP effects from global decarbonization remain uncertain, but modeling suggests they exceed abatement costs especially for carbon-intensive and fossil-fuel-exporting countries. Ratcheting up climate finance can help make global decarbonization efforts more progressive.
Oecd Business And Finance Outlook 2020 Sustainable And Resilient Finance
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Author : OECD
language : en
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Release Date : 2020-09-29
Oecd Business And Finance Outlook 2020 Sustainable And Resilient Finance written by OECD and has been published by OECD Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-29 with categories.
The OECD Business and Finance Outlook is an annual publication that presents unique data and analysis on the trends, both positive and negative, that are shaping tomorrow’s world of business, finance and investment.
Global Financial Stability Report April 2015
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2015-04-15
Global Financial Stability Report April 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-04-15 with Business & Economics categories.
The current report finds that, despite an improvement in economic prospects in some key advanced economies, new challenges to global financial stability have arisen. The global financial system is being buffeted by a series of changes, including lower oil prices and, in some cases, diverging growth patterns and monetary policies. Expectations for rising U.S. policy rates sparked a significant appreciation of the U.S. dollar, while long term bond yields in many advanced economies have decreased—and have turned negative for almost a third of euro area sovereign bonds—on disinflation concerns and the prospect of continued monetary accommodation. Emerging markets are caught in these global cross currents, with some oil exporters and other facing new stability challenges, while others have gained more policy space as a result of lower fuel prices and reduced inflationary pressures. The report also examines changes in international banking since the global financial crisis and finds that these changes are likely to promote more stable bank lending in host countries. Finally, the report finds that the asset management industry needs to strengthen its oversight framework to address financial stability risks from incentive problems between end-investors and portfolio managers and the risk of runs due to liquidity mismatches.