Design Decisions Under Uncertainty With Limited Information
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Design Decisions Under Uncertainty With Limited Information
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Author : Efstratios Nikolaidis
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2011-02-18
Design Decisions Under Uncertainty With Limited Information written by Efstratios Nikolaidis and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-02-18 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker’s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a methodology to model uncertainty and make choices when we have limited information. This methodology must use all available information and rely only on assumptions that are supported by evidence. This book explains theories and tools to represent uncertainty using both data and expert judgment. It teaches the reader how to make design or business decisions when there is limited information with these tools. Readers will learn a structured, risk-based approach, which is based on common sense principles, for design and business decisions. These decisions are consistent with the decision-maker’s risk attitude. The book is exceptionally suited as educational material because it uses everyday language and real-life examples to elucidate concepts. It demonstrates how these concepts touch our lives through many practical examples, questions and exercises. These are designed to help students learn that first they should understand a problem and then establish a strategy for solving it, instead of using trial-and-error approaches. This volume is intended for undergraduate and graduate courses in mechanical, civil, industrial, aerospace, and ocean engineering and for researchers and professionals in these disciplines. It will also benefit managers and students in business administration who want to make good decisions with limited information.
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty
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Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-04-04
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Multifaceted Uncertainty Quantification
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Author : Isaac Elishakoff
language : en
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
Release Date : 2024-09-23
Multifaceted Uncertainty Quantification written by Isaac Elishakoff and has been published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-09-23 with Technology & Engineering categories.
The book exposes three alternative and competing approaches to uncertainty analysis in engineering. It is composed of some essays on various sub-topics like random vibrations, probabilistic reliability, fuzzy-sets-based analysis, unknown-but-bounded variables, stochastic linearization, possible difficulties with stochastic analysis of structures.
Decisions Under Uncertainty
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Author : Ian Jordaan
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2005-04-07
Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Ian Jordaan and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-04-07 with Technology & Engineering categories.
To better understand the core concepts of probability and to see how they affect real-world decisions about design and system performance, engineers and scientists might want to ask themselves the following questions: what exactly is meant by probability? What is the precise definition of the 100-year load and how is it calculated? What is an 'extremal' probability distribution? What is the Bayesian approach? How is utility defined? How do games fit into probability theory? What is entropy? How do I apply these ideas in risk analysis? Starting from the most basic assumptions, this 2005 book develops a coherent theory of probability and broadens it into applications in decision theory, design, and risk analysis. This book is written for engineers and scientists interested in probability and risk. It can be used by undergraduates, graduate students, or practicing engineers.
Engineering Decision Making And Risk Management
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Author : Jeffrey W. Herrmann
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2015-03-13
Engineering Decision Making And Risk Management written by Jeffrey W. Herrmann and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-03-13 with Business & Economics categories.
IIE/Joint Publishers Book of the Year Award 2016! Awarded for ‘an outstanding published book that focuses on a facet of industrial engineering, improves education, or furthers the profession’. Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management emphasizes practical issues and examples of decision making with applications in engineering design and management Featuring a blend of theoretical and analytical aspects, this book presents multiple perspectives on decision making to better understand and improve risk management processes and decision-making systems. Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management uniquely presents and discusses three perspectives on decision making: problem solving, the decision-making process, and decision-making systems. The author highlights formal techniques for group decision making and game theory and includes numerical examples to compare and contrast different quantitative techniques. The importance of initially selecting the most appropriate decision-making process is emphasized through practical examples and applications that illustrate a variety of useful processes. Presenting an approach for modeling and improving decision-making systems, Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management also features: Theoretically sound and practical tools for decision making under uncertainty, multi-criteria decision making, group decision making, the value of information, and risk management Practical examples from both historical and current events that illustrate both good and bad decision making and risk management processes End-of-chapter exercises for readers to apply specific learning objectives and practice relevant skills A supplementary website with instructional support material, including worked solutions to the exercises, lesson plans, in-class activities, slides, and spreadsheets An excellent textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate students, Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management is appropriate for courses on decision analysis, decision making, and risk management within the fields of engineering design, operations research, business and management science, and industrial and systems engineering. The book is also an ideal reference for academics and practitioners in business and management science, operations research, engineering design, systems engineering, applied mathematics, and statistics.
Proceedings Of The 8th International Conference On Foundations Of Computer Aided Process Design
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2014-07-14
Proceedings Of The 8th International Conference On Foundations Of Computer Aided Process Design written by and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-07-14 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This volume collects together the presentations at the Eighth International Conference on Foundations of Computer-Aided Process Design, FOCAPD-2014, an event that brings together researchers, educators, and practitioners to identify new challenges and opportunities for process and product design. The chemical industry is currently entering a new phase of rapid evolution. The availability of low-cost feedstocks from natural gas is causing renewed investment in basic chemicals in the OECD, while societal pressures for sustainability and energy security continue to be key drivers in technology development and product selection. This dynamic environment creates opportunities to launch new products and processes and to demonstrate new methodologies for innovation, synthesis and design. FOCAPD-2014 fosters constructive interaction among thought leaders from academia, industry, and government and provides a showcase for the latest research in product and process design. - Focuses exclusively on the fundamentals and applications of computer-aided design for the process industries. - Provides a fully archival and indexed record of the FOCAPD14 conference - Aligns the FOCAPD series with the ESCAPE and PSE series
Seismic Performance Of Concrete Buildings
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Author : Liviu Crainic
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2012-12-10
Seismic Performance Of Concrete Buildings written by Liviu Crainic and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-10 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book examines and presents essential aspects of the behavior, analysis, design and detailing of reinforced concrete buildings subjected to strong seismic activity. Seismic design is an extremely complex problem that has seen spectacular development in the last decades. The present volume tries to show how the principles and methods of earthqua
Moving Loads Dynamic Analysis And Identification Techniques
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Author : Siu-Seong Law
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2011-02-18
Moving Loads Dynamic Analysis And Identification Techniques written by Siu-Seong Law and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-02-18 with Technology & Engineering categories.
The interaction phenomenon is very common between different components of a mechanical system. It is a natural phenomenon and is found with the impact force in aircraft landing; the estimation of degree of ripeness of an apple from impact on a beam; the interaction of the magnetic head of a computer disk leading to miniature development of modern c
Non Destructive Techniques For The Evaluation Of Structures And Infrastructure
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Author : Belén Riveiro
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2016-04-04
Non Destructive Techniques For The Evaluation Of Structures And Infrastructure written by Belén Riveiro and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-04 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book provides an overview and up-to-date synthesis of the most commonly used non-destructive technologies for the reverse engineering of built infrastructure facilities. These technologies tackle both the geometric and radiometric characterization of built structures, and thus, validated technologies such as laser scanning, photogrammetry, and
Load Testing Of Bridges
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Author : Eva Lantsoght
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2019-06-26
Load Testing Of Bridges written by Eva Lantsoght and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-26 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Load Testing of Bridges, featuring contributions from almost fifty authors from around the world across two interrelated volumes, deals with the practical aspects, the scientific developments, and the international views on the topic of load testing of bridges. Volume 13, Load Testing of Bridges: Proof Load Testing and the Future of Load Testing, focuses first on proof load testing of bridges. It discusses the specific aspects of proof load testing during the preparation, execution, and post-processing of such a test (Part 1). The second part covers the testing of buildings. The third part discusses novel ideas regarding measurement techniques used for load testing. Methods using non-contact sensors, such as photography- and video-based measurement techniques are discussed. The fourth part discusses load testing in the framework of reliability-based decision-making and in the framework of a bridge management program. The final part of the book summarizes the knowledge presented across the two volumes, as well as the remaining open questions for research, and provides practical recommendations for engineers carrying out load tests. This work will be of interest to researchers and academics in the field of civil/structural engineering, practicing engineers and road authorities worldwide.