Development Of A Conceptual Framework For Uncertainty Analysis And Sensitivity Analysis
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Development Of A Conceptual Framework For Uncertainty Analysis And Sensitivity Analysis
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Author : Suz Suz Goh
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Development Of A Conceptual Framework For Uncertainty Analysis And Sensitivity Analysis written by Suz Suz Goh and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
Dealing With Uncertainty In Sustainability Assessment
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Dealing With Uncertainty In Sustainability Assessment written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.
Assessing sustainability is more and more becoming a common practice in products, policies and institution appraisals. However, increasing concern has been recognized in the scientific community regarding whether the various available examples of sustainability assessment are really comprehensive and able to judge in a robust and reliable way if new developments to "meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs". It is possible to identify three main sources of uncertainty: i) the "sustainable development" concept and the definition of boundaries (physical, economic and social) to assess it, ii) the intrinsic subjectivity of many assessment tools, iii) the incapability of many available modelling activities to mimic our world. This report tries to define a conceptual framework in order to deal with the uncertainty within a sustainability assessment describing some statistical techniques that can be fruitfully applied for this purpose. The conceptual framework proposed is centred on sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. A Monte Carlo framework is suggested in both the cases, and examples of its application to field specific models are provided. Results clearly show the powerfulness of such techniques in providing the analyst with useful information to manage the uncertainties hidden behind any assessment exercise.
Sensitivity Uncertainty Analysis Volume 1
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Author : Dan G. Cacuci
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2003-05-28
Sensitivity Uncertainty Analysis Volume 1 written by Dan G. Cacuci and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-05-28 with Mathematics categories.
As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable investigative scientific tools in their own right. While most techniques used for these analyses are well documented, there has yet to appear a systematic treatment of the method based
Sensitivity And Uncertainty Analysis Volume Ii
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Author : Dan G. Cacuci
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2005-05-16
Sensitivity And Uncertainty Analysis Volume Ii written by Dan G. Cacuci and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-05-16 with Mathematics categories.
As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative convective model for climate simulations, and large-scale models for numerical weather prediction.
Sensitivity Uncertainty Analysis
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Author : Dan G. Cacuci
language : en
Publisher: Chapman and Hall/CRC
Release Date : 2003-05-28
Sensitivity Uncertainty Analysis written by Dan G. Cacuci and has been published by Chapman and Hall/CRC this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-05-28 with Mathematics categories.
As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable investigative scientific tools in their own right. While most techniques used for these analyses are well documented, there has yet to appear a systematic treatment of the method based on adjoint operators, which is applicable to a much wider variety of problems than methods traditionally used in control theory. This book fills that gap, focusing on the mathematical underpinnings of the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure (ASAP) and the use of deterministically obtained sensitivities for subsequent uncertainty analysis.
Sensitivity Analysis
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Author : Emanuele Borgonovo
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-04-19
Sensitivity Analysis written by Emanuele Borgonovo and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-04-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is an expository introduction to the methodology of sensitivity analysis of model output. It is primarily intended for investigators, students and researchers that are familiar with mathematical models but are less familiar with the techniques for performing their sensitivity analysis. A variety of sensitivity methods have been developed over the years. This monograph helps the analyst in her/his first exploration of this world. The main goal is to foster the recognition of the crucial role of sensitivity analysis methods as the techniques that allow us to gain insights from quantitative models. Also, exercising rigor in performing sensitivity analysis becomes increasingly relevant both to decision makers and modelers. The book helps the analyst in structuring her/his sensitivity analysis quest properly, so as to obtain the correct answer to the corresponding managerial question. The first part of the book covers Deterministic Methods, including Tornado Diagrams; One-Way Sensitivity Analysis; Differentiation-Based Methods and Local Sensitivity Analysis with Constraints. The second part looks at Probabilistic Methods, including Regression-Based methods, Variance-Based Methods, and Distribution-Based methods. The final section looks at Applications, including capital budgeting, sensitivity analysis in climate change modelling and in the risk assessment of a lunar space mission.
Global Sensitivity Analysis
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Author : Andrea Saltelli
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2008-02-28
Global Sensitivity Analysis written by Andrea Saltelli and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-02-28 with Mathematics categories.
Complex mathematical and computational models are used in all areas of society and technology and yet model based science is increasingly contested or refuted, especially when models are applied to controversial themes in domains such as health, the environment or the economy. More stringent standards of proofs are demanded from model-based numbers, especially when these numbers represent potential financial losses, threats to human health or the state of the environment. Quantitative sensitivity analysis is generally agreed to be one such standard. Mathematical models are good at mapping assumptions into inferences. A modeller makes assumptions about laws pertaining to the system, about its status and a plethora of other, often arcane, system variables and internal model settings. To what extent can we rely on the model-based inference when most of these assumptions are fraught with uncertainties? Global Sensitivity Analysis offers an accessible treatment of such problems via quantitative sensitivity analysis, beginning with the first principles and guiding the reader through the full range of recommended practices with a rich set of solved exercises. The text explains the motivation for sensitivity analysis, reviews the required statistical concepts, and provides a guide to potential applications. The book: Provides a self-contained treatment of the subject, allowing readers to learn and practice global sensitivity analysis without further materials. Presents ways to frame the analysis, interpret its results, and avoid potential pitfalls. Features numerous exercises and solved problems to help illustrate the applications. Is authored by leading sensitivity analysis practitioners, combining a range of disciplinary backgrounds. Postgraduate students and practitioners in a wide range of subjects, including statistics, mathematics, engineering, physics, chemistry, environmental sciences, biology, toxicology, actuarial sciences, and econometrics will find much of use here. This book will prove equally valuable to engineers working on risk analysis and to financial analysts concerned with pricing and hedging.
The Nth Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology Volume Ii
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Author : Dan Gabriel Cacuci
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2023-04-26
The Nth Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology Volume Ii written by Dan Gabriel Cacuci and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-04-26 with Science categories.
This text describes a comprehensive adjoint sensitivity analysis methodology (nth-CASAM), developed by the author, which enablesthe efficient and exact computation of arbitrarily high-order functional derivatives of model responses to model parameters in large-scale systems. The nth-CASAM framework is set in linearly increasing Hilbert spaces, each of state-function-dimensionality, as opposed to exponentially increasing parameter-dimensional spaces, thereby overcoming the so-called “curse of dimensionality” in sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The nth-CASAM is applicable to any model; the larger the number of model parameters, the more efficient the nth-CASAM becomes for computing arbitrarily high-order response sensitivities. The book will be helpful to those working in the fields of sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, model validation, optimization, data assimilation, model calibration, sensor fusion, reduced-order modelling, inverse problems and predictive modelling. This Volume Two, the second of three, presents the large-scale application of the nth-CASAM to perform a representative fourth-order sensitivity analysis of the Polyethylene-Reflected Plutonium benchmark described in the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook. This benchmark is modeled mathematically by the Boltzmann particle transport equation, involving 21,976 imprecisely-known parameters, the numerical solution of which requires representative large-scale computations. The sensitivity analysis presented in this volume is the most comprehensive ever performed in the field of reactor physics and the results presented in this book prove, perhaps counter-intuitively, that many of the 4th-order sensitivities are much larger than the corresponding 3rd-order ones, which are, in turn, much larger than the 2nd-order ones, all of which are much larger than the 1st-order sensitivities. Currently, the nth-CASAM is the only known methodology which enables such large-scale computations of exactly obtained expressions of arbitrarily-high-order response sensitivities.
The Uncertainty Analysis Of Model Results
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Author : Eduard Hofer
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-05-02
The Uncertainty Analysis Of Model Results written by Eduard Hofer and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-02 with Mathematics categories.
This book is a practical guide to the uncertainty analysis of computer model applications. Used in many areas, such as engineering, ecology and economics, computer models are subject to various uncertainties at the level of model formulations, parameter values and input data. Naturally, it would be advantageous to know the combined effect of these uncertainties on the model results as well as whether the state of knowledge should be improved in order to reduce the uncertainty of the results most effectively. The book supports decision-makers, model developers and users in their argumentation for an uncertainty analysis and assists them in the interpretation of the analysis results.
Sensitivity Analysis In Practice
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Author : Andrea Saltelli
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2004-07-16
Sensitivity Analysis In Practice written by Andrea Saltelli and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-07-16 with Mathematics categories.
Sensitivity analysis should be considered a pre-requisite for statistical model building in any scientific discipline where modelling takes place. For a non-expert, choosing the method of analysis for their model is complex, and depends on a number of factors. This book guides the non-expert through their problem in order to enable them to choose and apply the most appropriate method. It offers a review of the state-of-the-art in sensitivity analysis, and is suitable for a wide range of practitioners. It is focussed on the use of SIMLAB – a widely distributed freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors – for solving problems in sensitivity analysis of statistical models. Other key features: Provides an accessible overview of the current most widely used methods for sensitivity analysis. Opens with a detailed worked example to explain the motivation behind the book. Includes a range of examples to help illustrate the concepts discussed. Focuses on implementation of the methods in the software SIMLAB - a freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors. Contains a large number of references to sources for further reading. Authored by the leading authorities on sensitivity analysis.