Dissecting Saving Dynamics
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Dissecting Saving Dynamics
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Author : Mr.Christopher Carroll
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-09-01
Dissecting Saving Dynamics written by Mr.Christopher Carroll and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-09-01 with Business & Economics categories.
We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s - 2007), and recent substantial increase (2008 - 2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious ‘buffer stock’ model of optimal consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is affected by the gap between ‘target’ and actual wealth, with the target wealth determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the saving rate’s long-term decline, while fluctuations in net wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation.
Dissecting Saving Dynamics
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Author : Christopher D. Carroll
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Dissecting Saving Dynamics written by Christopher D. Carroll and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
We show that an estimated tractable 'buffer stock saving' model can match the 30-year decline in the U.S. saving rate leading up to 2007, the sharp increase during the Great Recession, and much of the intervening business cycle variation. In the model, saving depends on the gap between 'target' and actual wealth, with the target determined by measured credit availability and measured unemployment expectations. Following financial deregulation starting in the late 1970s, expanding credit supply explains the trend decline in saving, while fluctuations in wealth and consumer-survey-measured unemployment expectations capture much of the business-cycle variation, including the sharp rise during the Great Recession.
Dissecting Saving Dynamics
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Author : Chris Carroll
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Dissecting Saving Dynamics written by Chris Carroll and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
We show that an estimated tractable 'buffer stock saving' model can match the 30-year decline in the U.S. saving rate leading up to 2007, the sharp increase during the Great Recession, and much of the intervening business cycle variation. In the model, saving depends on the gap between 'target' and actual wealth, with the target determined by measured credit availability and measured unemployment expectations. Following financial deregulation starting in the late 1970s, expanding credit supply explains the trend decline in saving, while fluctuations in wealth and consumer-survey-measured unemployment expectations capture much of the business-cycle variation, including the sharp rise during the Great Recession.
Dissecting Savings Dynamics
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Author : Chris Carroll
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Dissecting Savings Dynamics written by Chris Carroll and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with Saving and investment categories.
We show that an estimated tractable ‘buffer stock saving’ model can match the 30-year decline in the U.S. saving rate leading up to 2007, the sharp increase during the Great Recession, and much of the intervening business cycle variation. In the model, saving depends on the gap between ‘target’ and actual wealth, with the target determined by measured credit availability and measured unemployment expectations. Following financial deregulation starting in the late 1970s, expanding credit supply explains the trend decline in saving, while fluctuations in wealth and consumer-survey-measured unemployment expectations capture much of the business-cycle variation, including the sharp rise during the Great Recession.
Dissecting Savings Dynamics
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Author : Christopher Carroll
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Dissecting Savings Dynamics written by Christopher Carroll and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with Saving and investment categories.
Household Deleveraging And Saving Rates A Cross Country Analysis
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Author : Romain Bouis
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-10-29
Household Deleveraging And Saving Rates A Cross Country Analysis written by Romain Bouis and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-10-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Historically high household debt in several economies is calling for a deleveraging, but according to some economists, this adjustment can slow GDP growth by weighing on consumption. Using a sample of advanced and emerging market economies, this paper finds evidence of a negative relationship between changes of household debt-to-income ratios and saving rates. This relationship is however asymmetric, being significant only for debt build-ups. Declining debt ratios and saving are significantly related in some economies, but the relationship is driven by consumer credit, not by mortgages. Results therefore suggest that the economic cost associated with household deleveraging may be overestimated and motivate a deleveraging via lower mortgages.
Precautionary Savings In The Great Recession
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Author : Mr.Ashoka Mody
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-02-01
Precautionary Savings In The Great Recession written by Mr.Ashoka Mody and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-02-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Heightened uncertainty since the onset of the Great Recession has materially increased saving rates, contributing to lower consumption and GDP growth. Consistent with a model of precautionary savings in the face of uncertainty, we find for a panel of advanced economies that greater labor income uncertainty is significantly associated with higher household savings. These results are robust to controlling for other determinants of saving rates, including wealth-to-income ratios, the government fiscal balance, demographics, credit conditions, and global growth and financial stress. Our estimates imply that at least two-fifths of the sharp increase in household saving rates between 2007 and 2009 can be attributed to the precautionary savings motive.
The U S Personal Saving Rate
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Author : Mr.Sam Ouliaris
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-06-08
The U S Personal Saving Rate written by Mr.Sam Ouliaris and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper develops a time series model for aggregate consumption to predict the U.S. personal saving rate. It then uses the model to test whether there has been a structural break in consumption behavior because of the 2008 financial crisis. Before the crisis, the personal saving rate was trending downwards. However, in 2008 there was a significant rise in the saving rate that continued until the end of 2012, suggesting a permanent change in household behavior. To assess this issue formally, the unknown parameters of the model are estimated using data for 1961Q1-2007Q4, a period which precedes the crisis. The model is then used to predict the saving rate from 2008Q1 onwards and to assess whether the rise in the saving rate after 2008 was due to sizable, but transitory, income/wealth shocks or to changes in the underlying elasticities between saving and its determinants (hence structural). The statistical evidence suggests there was no structural break in the household saving behavior, implying that the rise in the saving rate during 2008-2012 was caused by the negative shocks to income, employment and wealth. This result explains why the saving rate resumed its decline in 2013, as real disposable income, employment and net worth recovered. Assuming that the real growth in these determinants remains strong, the estimated model predicts continued negative pressures on the current account deficit and further external imbalances attributable to the U.S. household sector.
Cyprus
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Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-10-22
Cyprus written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-22 with Business & Economics categories.
This Selected Issues paper on Cyprus models the evolution of the saving rate to help shed some light on its determinants, which could help inform medium-term projections. This paper suggests that household net wealth and unemployment are key determinants of the saving rate in Cyprus. Cypriot households dissaved in the period preceding the global crisis, as their wealth increased, and credit could be used to finance consumption. The data uncertainty, due to various data sources used and relatively short time-period may affect the regression results. Moreover, in the estimation, the endogeneity between household wealth and the saving rate, as well as between unemployment and the saving rate may have not been fully controlled through lags. Due to the lack of micro-level data, the analysis does not explore the distributional consideration with respect to wealth. Since wealth is likely distributed unevenly, high indebted households with limited wealth are likely to reduce their saving rate more than the average to support consumption in the face of economic stress. The forward-looking projections are also subject to considerable uncertainty and should be interpreted with care.
Regional Economic Outlook May 2013 Western Hemisphere
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-05-06
Regional Economic Outlook May 2013 Western Hemisphere written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-05-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Despite some global risks, external conditions for Latin America should remain stimulative. With monetary policy in advanced economies expected to stay accommodative, external financing conditions will remain favorable. Strong demand from emerging Asian economies and the gradual recovery of advanced economies will continue to support commodity prices, benefiting exporters. The main policy challenge for most of the region is to take advantage of current conditions to continue buttressing a foundation for sustained growth. Other issues important to the region include: (i) strengthening balance sheets; (ii) understanding how changes in external conditions could impact public and external debt dynamics; and (iii) making the best use of the windfall from the recent terms-of-trade boom.