Distorted Probabilities And Choice Under Risk

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Distorted Probabilities And Choice Under Risk

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Author : Clemens Puppe
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Distorted Probabilities And Choice Under Risk written by Clemens Puppe and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.

During the development of modern probability theory in the 17th cen tury it was commonly held that the attractiveness of a gamble offering the payoffs :1:17 ••• ,:l: with probabilities Pl, . . . , Pn is given by its expected n value L:~ :l:iPi. Accordingly, the decision problem of choosing among different such gambles - which will be called prospects or lotteries in the sequel-was thought to be solved by maximizing the corresponding expected values. The famous St. Petersburg paradox posed by Nicholas Bernoulli in 1728, however, conclusively demonstrated the fact that individuals l consider more than just the expected value. The resolution of the St. Petersburg paradox was proposed independently by Gabriel Cramer and Nicholas's cousin Daniel Bernoulli [BERNOULLI 1738/1954]. Their argument was that in a gamble with payoffs :l:i the decisive factors are not the payoffs themselves but their subjective values u( :l:i)' According to this argument gambles are evaluated on the basis of the expression L:~ U(Xi)pi. This hypothesis -with a somewhat different interpretation of the function u - has been given a solid axiomatic foundation in 1944 by v. Neumann and Morgenstern and is now known as the expected utility hypothesis. The resulting model has served for a long time as the preeminent theory of choice under risk, especially in its economic applications.

Distorted Probabilities And Choice Under Risk

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Author : Clemens Puppe
language : en
Publisher: Springer Verlag
Release Date : 1991

Distorted Probabilities And Choice Under Risk written by Clemens Puppe and has been published by Springer Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991 with Business & Economics categories.

The Cognitive Basis For Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty Research Programs Controversies

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Author : Samuel Shye
language : en
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Release Date : 2025-03-13

The Cognitive Basis For Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty Research Programs Controversies written by Samuel Shye and has been published by Frontiers Media SA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-03-13 with Science categories.

This issue aims to portray, justify, advance, contrast, and illustrate research programs in the domain of cognitive decision-making under risk and uncertainty, where such research programs are intended to promote theories, models, or conceptual frameworks for: • Prediction of empirical observations, • Descriptions of empirical results, likely or rationalized to lead to predictions (e.g., models with free parameters whose values are part of a hypothesis to be tested; or cross validation of descriptive-model results); • Generalizations of many specific empirical results; • Normative models alternative to Expected Utility Theory (EUT) • Replications of published results concerning any of the above. Any of the above may concern any aspect (statistic) of empirical data, including: • Individual or group behavior itself (e.g., prediction of people's actual choices); • differences or difference in rankings of Individual or group behavior • distribution of responses for the general purpose of promoting scientific understanding of individual or collective human behavior in the domain of decision-making under risk or uncertainty. In particular, this issue may shed light on the controversy between Behavioral Economics and Cognitive Economics. The first relates to Kahneman and Tversky's program of Heuristics and Biases and the normative model of formal rationality, whereas the second is connected to Simon, Gigerenzer, and Viale's program of simple adaptive heuristics and the normative model of ecological bounded rationality. Both of which aim to improve economics on a cognitive basis.

Risk Aversion In Experiments

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Author : G.W. Harrison
language : en
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Release Date : 2008-02-29

Risk Aversion In Experiments written by G.W. Harrison and has been published by Emerald Group Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-02-29 with Business & Economics categories.

Presents research utilizing laboratory experimental methods in economics.

Reliability And Optimization Of Structural Systems

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Author : Marc Maes
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2020-11-17

Reliability And Optimization Of Structural Systems written by Marc Maes and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-11-17 with Technology & Engineering categories.

This volume is an outcome of the 11th IFIP WG7.5 working conference on Reliability and Optimization of Structural Systems in Canada. The conference focuses on structural reliability methods and applications and engineering risk analysis and decision-making.

Generalized Convexity And Generalized Monotonicity

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Author : Nicolas Hadjisavvas
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2001-04-10

Generalized Convexity And Generalized Monotonicity written by Nicolas Hadjisavvas and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-04-10 with Mathematics categories.

Various generalizations of convex functions have been introduced in areas such as mathematical programming, economics, management science, engineering, stochastics and applied sciences, for example. Such functions preserve one or more properties of convex functions and give rise to models which are more adaptable to real-world situations than convex models. Similarly, generalizations of monotone maps have been studied recently. A growing literature of this interdisciplinary field has appeared, and a large number of international meetings are entirely devoted or include clusters on generalized convexity and generalized monotonicity. The present book contains a selection of refereed papers presented at the 6th International Symposium on Generalized Convexity/Monotonicity, and aims to review the latest developments in the field.

Search Games And Other Applications Of Game Theory

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Author : Andrey Garnaev
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Search Games And Other Applications Of Game Theory written by Andrey Garnaev and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.

This book is on applications of game theory. The title of this book is not "Game Theory and its Applications" because it does not construct a general theory for considered games. The book contains a lot of examples of applica tion of game theory together with the background of those games considered and a list of unsolved problems. Also we consider only the game where the optimal strategies of the players are found in closed form. This book is an attempt to carryon the approach developed in nice books "Search Games" by Gal and "Geometric Games and their Applications" by Ruckle. The first chapter of this book supplies the required definitions and theorems from game theory. The second chapter deals with discrete search games where both players act simultaneously: the games of protection of a channel from infiltration of a submarine, the submarine versus helicopter game, the matrix search games and others. The third chapter considers the game where the players allocate their contin uousefforts. In these games players face up an alternative either not to come into contest if the cost of efforts seems too high, or come into it. In the last case the player have to decide how much resources they can afford to spend. The allocation models of search, antiballistic protection and marketing are investigated.

Parallel Computing And Mathematical Optimization

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Author : Manfred Grauer
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Parallel Computing And Mathematical Optimization written by Manfred Grauer and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Computers categories.

This special volume contains the Proceedings of a Workshop on "Parallel Algorithms and Transputers for Optimization" which was held at the University of Siegen, on November 9, 1990. The purpose of the Workshop was to bring together those doing research on 2.lgorithms for parallel and distributed optimization and those representatives from industry and business who have an increasing demand for computing power and who may be the potential users of nonsequential approaches. In contrast to many other conferences, especially North-American, on parallel processing and supercomputers the main focus of the contributions and discussion was "problem oriented". This view reflects the following philosophy: How can the existing computing infrastructure (PC's, workstations, local area networks) of an institution or a company be used for parallel and/or distributed problem solution in optimization. This volume of the LECfURE NOTES ON ECONOMICS AND MA THEMA TICAL SYSTEMS contains most of the papers presented at the workshop, plus some additional invited papers covering other important topics related to this workshop. The papers appear here grouped according to four general areas. (1) Solution of optimization problems using massive parallel systems (data parallelism). The authors of these papers are: Lootsma; Gehne. (II) Solution of optimization problems using coarse-grained parallel approaches on multiprocessor systems (control parallelism). The authors of these papers are: Bierwirth, Mattfeld, and Stoppler; Schwartz; Boden, Gehne, and Grauer; and Taudes and Netousek.

Econometrics And Income Inequality

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Author : Martin Biewen
language : en
Publisher: MDPI
Release Date : 2018-11-26

Econometrics And Income Inequality written by Martin Biewen and has been published by MDPI this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-11-26 with Business & Economics categories.

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Econometrics and Income Inequality" that was published in Econometrics

Equity Efficiency And Evolutionary Stability In Bargaining Games With Joint Production

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Author : Manfred Königstein
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Equity Efficiency And Evolutionary Stability In Bargaining Games With Joint Production written by Manfred Königstein and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.

Result 1.10 Simple equity standards were superior to more complex ones, even though the latter might be economically more relevant. Result 1.11 Equity based on quantity (input) and return (output) was most successful and received a hit rate of almost i within a range of 10%, i.e., within a distance of ±5% of the predicted share. Result 1.12 A substantial share of observations is consistent with egalitarian considerations. 1.7 Summary The study investigates the predictive power of equity theory and strategic concepts within ultimatum bargaining with advance produc tion. This is different from many other experimental studies on non cooperative bargaining games, since usually the ressource to be dis tributed between the subjects is given by the experimenter. Here, the "pie" is produced via joint production effort. This scenario is more general than bargaining without production, and we think it is more natural as well. The description of the raw data showed that the production choices are considerably dispersed, but nevertheless systematically biased to ward the respective player's efficient production level. The distribu tions of demanded return shares and demanded surplus shares partly replicated findings of other studies; namely, a low percentage of high demands and a considerable proportion of equal surplus splits. But, they also indicate that "advance production" compared to "no pro duction" should be considered an important treatment in studies on ultimatum bargaining.