Distorted Probabilities And Choice Under Risk
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Distorted Probabilities And Choice Under Risk
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Author : Clemens Puppe
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Distorted Probabilities And Choice Under Risk written by Clemens Puppe and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
During the development of modern probability theory in the 17th cen tury it was commonly held that the attractiveness of a gamble offering the payoffs :1:17 ••• ,:l: with probabilities Pl, . . . , Pn is given by its expected n value L:~ :l:iPi. Accordingly, the decision problem of choosing among different such gambles - which will be called prospects or lotteries in the sequel-was thought to be solved by maximizing the corresponding expected values. The famous St. Petersburg paradox posed by Nicholas Bernoulli in 1728, however, conclusively demonstrated the fact that individuals l consider more than just the expected value. The resolution of the St. Petersburg paradox was proposed independently by Gabriel Cramer and Nicholas's cousin Daniel Bernoulli [BERNOULLI 1738/1954]. Their argument was that in a gamble with payoffs :l:i the decisive factors are not the payoffs themselves but their subjective values u( :l:i)' According to this argument gambles are evaluated on the basis of the expression L:~ U(Xi)pi. This hypothesis -with a somewhat different interpretation of the function u - has been given a solid axiomatic foundation in 1944 by v. Neumann and Morgenstern and is now known as the expected utility hypothesis. The resulting model has served for a long time as the preeminent theory of choice under risk, especially in its economic applications.
Myopic Loss Aversion Revisited
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Author : Pavlo R. Blavatskyy
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Myopic Loss Aversion Revisited written by Pavlo R. Blavatskyy and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with categories.
When the performance of a risky asset is frequently assessed, the probability of detecting a loss is high, which averts the loss averse investors. This effect is known as myopic loss aversion (MLA). This paper reexamines several recent experimental studies documenting the existence of MLA. A closer look at the experimental data reveals that the effect of MLA is largely neutralized by the overweighting of small probabilities and the underweighting of moderate and high probabilities. Remarkably, the two effects exactly balance each other out for conventional parameterizations of cumulative prospect theory. MLA alone cannot explain the observed investment decisions.
Myopic Loss Aversion Revisited
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Author : Pavlo Blavatskyy
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
Myopic Loss Aversion Revisited written by Pavlo Blavatskyy and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with categories.
Confidence Theory
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Author : Goran Milovanović
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Confidence Theory written by Goran Milovanović and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
In confidence theory, the decision maker relies on statistical regularities from the economic environment to adopt prior beliefs about the probabilities stated on a lottery. Following the confidence principle, by which the weight of the prior in Bayesian inference is proportional to the uncertainty related to its distribution, the decision maker arrives at the posterior that is used in lottery evaluation. The confidence principle is justified by a rational analysis of belief formation in choice under risk. Three novel experiments are presented that demonstrate the ability of the new theory to explain the empirical correspondences among (1) judgments of similarity between monetary outcomes, (2) certainty equivalents of risky lotteries, (3) judgments of a priori probabilities to obtain a particular monetary outcome, and (4) judgments of revised stated probabilities that were used in the evaluation of certainty equivalents. The decision model employed in confidence theory is an elaboration of Viscusi's prospective reference theory and accounts for the robust violations of expected utility theory, as well as for the “new paradoxes” that falsify cumulative prospect theory. The model is characterized by a class of outcome-dependent probability updating functions that jointly explain the structure of probability distortions in behavioral choice under risk.
Progress In Decision Utility And Risk Theory
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Author : Attila Chikán
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Progress In Decision Utility And Risk Theory written by Attila Chikán and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
In this volume we present some of the papers delivered at FUR-IV - the Fourth International Conference on Founda tions and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory in Budapest, June 1988. The FUR Conferences have provided an appreciated forum every two years since 1982 within which scientists can report recent issues and prospective applications of decision theory, and exchange ideas about controversial questions of this field. Focal points of the presented papers are: expected utility versus alterna tive utility models, concepts of risk and uncertainty, developments of game theory, and investigations of real decision making behaviour under uncertainty and/or in risky situations. We hope that this sample of papers will appeal to a wide spectrum of readers who are interested in and fami liar with this interesting and exciting issues of decision theory. A wide range of theoretical and practical questions is considered in papers included in this volume, and many of them closely related to economics. In fact, there were two Nobel-Laureates in economics among the participants: I. Herbert A. Simon (1978) and Maurice Allais (1988), who won the prize just after the conference. His paper deals with problems of cardinal utility. After a concise overview of the history and theory of cardinal utility he gives an estimate of the invariant cardinal utility function for its whole domain of variation (i. e.
Axiomatic Utility Theory Under Risk
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Author : Ulrich Schmidt
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Axiomatic Utility Theory Under Risk written by Ulrich Schmidt and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
The first attempts to develop a utility theory for choice situations under risk were undertaken by Cramer (1728) and Bernoulli (1738). Considering the famous St. Petersburg Paradox! - a lottery with an infinite expected monetary value -Bernoulli (1738, p. 209) observed that most people would not spend a significant amount of money to engage in that gamble. To account for this observation, Bernoulli (1738, pp. 199-201) proposed that the expected monetary value has to be replaced by the expected utility ("moral expectation") as the relevant criterion for decision making under risk. However, Bernoulli's 2 argument and particularly his choice of a logarithmic utility function seem to be rather arbitrary since they are based entirely on intuitively 3 appealing examples. Not until two centuries later, did von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947) prove that if the preferences of the decision maker satisfy cer tain assumptions they can be represented by the expected value of a real-valued utility function defined on the set of consequences. Despite the identical mathematical form of expected utility, the theory of von Neumann and Morgenstern and Bernoulli's approach have, however, IFor comprehensive discussions of this paradox cf. Menger (1934), Samuelson (1960), (1977), Shapley (1977a), Aumann (1977), Jorland (1987), and Zabell (1987). 2Cramer (1728, p. 212), on the other hand, proposed that the utility of an amount of money is given by the square root of this amount.
Handbook Of The Fundamentals Of Financial Decision Making
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Author : Leonard C. MacLean
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2013
Handbook Of The Fundamentals Of Financial Decision Making written by Leonard C. MacLean and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Business & Economics categories.
This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006).
Prospect Theory
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Author : Peter P. Wakker
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2010-07-22
Prospect Theory written by Peter P. Wakker and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-07-22 with Business & Economics categories.
Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity, provides a comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.
Behavioral Portfolio Choice Under Hyperbolic Absolute Risk Aversion
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Author : Marcos Escobar
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Behavioral Portfolio Choice Under Hyperbolic Absolute Risk Aversion written by Marcos Escobar and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
This paper studies the optimal investment problem for a behavioral investor with probability distortion functions and an S-shaped utility function whose utility on gains satisfies the Inada condition at infinity, albeit not necessarily at zero, in a complete continuous-time financial market model. In particular, a piecewise utility function with hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) is applied. The considered behavioral framework, Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), was originally introduced by Tversky and Kahneman (1992). The utility model allows for increasing, constant or decreasing relative risk aversion. The continuous-time portfolio selection problem under the S-shaped HARA utility function in combination with probability distortion functions on gains and losses is solved theoretically for the first time, the optimal terminal wealth and its replicating wealth process and investment strategy are stated. In addition, conditions on the utility and the probability distortion functions for well-posedness and closed-form solutions are provided. A specific probability distortion function family is presented which fulfills all those requirements. This generalizes the work by Jin and Zhou (2008). Finally, a numerical case study is carried out to illustrate the impact of the utility function and the probability distortion functions.
Handbook Of Portfolio Construction
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Author : John B. Guerard, Jr.
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2009-12-12
Handbook Of Portfolio Construction written by John B. Guerard, Jr. and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-12-12 with Business & Economics categories.
Portfolio construction is fundamental to the investment management process. In the 1950s, Harry Markowitz demonstrated the benefits of efficient diversification by formulating a mathematical program for generating the "efficient frontier" to summarize optimal trade-offs between expected return and risk. The Markowitz framework continues to be used as a basis for both practical portfolio construction and emerging research in financial economics. Such concepts as the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), for example, provide the foundation for setting benchmarks, for predicting returns and risk, and for performance measurement. This volume showcases original essays by some of today’s most prominent academics and practitioners in the field on the contemporary application of Markowitz techniques. Covering a wide spectrum of topics, including portfolio selection, data mining tests, and multi-factor risk models, the book presents a comprehensive approach to portfolio construction tools, models, frameworks, and analyses, with both practical and theoretical implications.