Do Monetary Policy Frameworks Matter In Low Income Countries
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Do Monetary Policy Frameworks Matter In Low Income Countries
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Author : Alina Carare
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020-07-24
Do Monetary Policy Frameworks Matter In Low Income Countries written by Alina Carare and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-07-24 with categories.
In recent years, many Low-Income Countries (LICs) have implemented substantial reforms to their monetary policy frameworks, but existing economic research has not provided a clear rationale to guide those efforts. In this paper we analyze the role of monetary policy frameworks in the propagation of aggregate shocks, using a large panel dataset of 79 LICs over the period 1990-2015 as well as event study analysis for a group of 28 sub-Saharan African LICs. We find highly significant differences in the propagation of external shocks between the LICs that target monetary aggregates or inflation compared to those that maintain rigid nominal exchange rates as a nominal anchor. We also find that the large surprise devaluation of the Central African Franc (CFA) in January 1994 had highly significant effects on the GDP growth of 10 CFA countries compared to 18 similar countries that were outside the CFA zone. Our empirical analysis provides strong support for the role of monetary policy frameworks in facilitating macroeconomic stability in LICs--a conclusion that is particularly relevant as LICs now face a multitude of similar shocks associated with the global COVID-19 pandemic.
Do Monetary Policy Frameworks Matter In Low Income Countries
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Author : Alina Carare
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Do Monetary Policy Frameworks Matter In Low Income Countries written by Alina Carare and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with Anti-inflationary policies categories.
Microeconomic evidence indicates a very high frequency of price adjustment in low income countries (LICs), raising the question of whether LICs may be reasonably characterized as exhibiting monetary neutrality. To address this question, we analyze a cross-country panel dataset of 79 LICs over the period 1990 to 2015 to assess the impact of external shocks on real GDP growth, and we find highly significant differences between LICs where the central bank targets monetary aggregates or inflation compared to LICs that maintain rigid nominal exchange rates. We also conduct an event study of the surprise devaluation of the Central African Franc (CFA) in January 1994 and find that it had highly significant effects on the output growth of 10 CFA countries relative to 18 similar countries outside the CFA zone. Consequently, the hypothesis of monetary neutrality is decisively rejected, and these findings provide strong support for the role of monetary policy frameworks in fostering price stability and macroeconomic stability in LICs.
Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks In Low Income And Other Developing Countries
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-10-23
Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks In Low Income And Other Developing Countries written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-10-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks In Low Income And Other Developing Countries Background Paper Country Experiences
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-10-27
Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks In Low Income And Other Developing Countries Background Paper Country Experiences written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-10-27 with Business & Economics categories.
This background paper focuses on the experiences of evolving monetary policy frameworks in nine individual countries and three thematic groupings of countries. The country case studies are complemented by analyses of common issues faced by countries in currency unions in the CFA franc zone, selected resource rich countries, and advanced economies and emerging markets during their modernization process of monetary policy regimes. Finally, the background paper also contains a discussion on the benefits of effective communication in conducting monetary policy.
On The Optimal Adherence To Money Targets In A New Keynesian Framework
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Author : Ms.Filiz Unsal
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-06-01
On The Optimal Adherence To Money Targets In A New Keynesian Framework written by Ms.Filiz Unsal and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-06-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Many low-income countries continue to describe their monetary policy framework in terms of targets on monetary aggregates. This contrasts with most modern discussions of monetary policy, and with most practice. We extend the new-Keynesian model to provide a role for “M” in the conduct of monetary policy, and examine the conditions under which some adherence to money targets is optimal. In the spirit of Poole (1970), this role is based on the incompleteness of information available to the central bank, a pervasive issues in these countries. Ex-ante announcements/forecasts for money growth are consistent with a Taylor rule for the relevant short-term interest rate. Ex-post, the policy maker must choose his relative adherence to interest rate and money growth targets. Drawing on the method in Svensson and Woodford (2004), we show that the optimal adherence to ex-ante targets is equivalent to a signal extraction problem where the central bank uses the money market information to update its estimate of the state of the economy. We estimate the model, using Bayesian methods, for Tanzania, Uganda (both de jure money targeters), and Ghana (a de jure inflation targeter), and compare the de facto adherence to targets with the optimal use of money market information in each country.
Monetary Transmission In Low Income Countries
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Author : Ms.Prachi Mishra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-10-01
Monetary Transmission In Low Income Countries written by Ms.Prachi Mishra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper reviews monetary transmission mechanisms in low-income countries (LICs) to identify aspects of the channels that may operate differently in LICs relative to advanced and emerging economies. Given the weak institutional frameworks, reduced role of securities markets, imperfect competition in the banking sector and the resulting high cost of bank lending to private firms, the traditional channels (interest rate, bank lending, and asset price) are impaired in LICs. The exchange rate channel is also undermined by central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. These conclusions are supported by review of the institutional frameworks, statistical analysis, and previous literature.
Monetary Policy In Low Income Countries In The Face Of The Global Crisis
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Author : Mr.Alfredo Baldini
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-04-01
Monetary Policy In Low Income Countries In The Face Of The Global Crisis written by Mr.Alfredo Baldini and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.
We develop a DSGE model with a banking sector to analyze the impact of the financial crisis on Zambia and the role of the monetary policy response. We view the crisis as a combination of three related shocks: a worsening in the terms of the trade, an increase in the country’s risk premium, and a decrease in the risk appetite of local banks. We characterize monetary policy as "stop and go": initially tight, subsequently loose. Simulations of the model broadly match the path of the economy during this period. We find that the initial policy response contributed to the domestic impact of the crisis by further tightening financial conditions. We study the factors driving the "stop" part of policy and derive policy implications for central banks in low-income countries.
How Effective Is Monetary Transmission In Low Income Countries A Survey Of The Empirical Evidence
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Author : Ms.Prachi Mishra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-06-01
How Effective Is Monetary Transmission In Low Income Countries A Survey Of The Empirical Evidence written by Ms.Prachi Mishra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-06-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper surveys the evidence on the effectiveness of monetary transmission in low-income countries. It is hard to come away from this review with much confidence in the strength of monetary transmission in such countries. We distinguish between the "facts on the ground" and "methodological deficiencies" interpretations of the absence of evidence for strong monetary transmission. We suspect that "facts on the ground" are an important part of the story. If this conjecture is correct, the stabilization challenge in developing countries is acute indeed, and identifying the means of enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy in such countries is an important challenge.
Inflation Targeting As A Framework For Monetary Policy
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1998-10-02
Inflation Targeting As A Framework For Monetary Policy written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-10-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Inflation distorts prices, erodes savings, discourages investment,stimulates capital flight, inhibits growth, and makes economic planning anightmare. During the past decade, several advanced economies have takena new approach to the age-old problem of controlling inflation throughmonetary policy known as "inflation targeting." This pamphlet explainsthe requirements of putting the new policy in place, the experience of the countries that have tried it, and whether it has applicability todeveloping countries.
What Can Low Income Countries Expect From Adopting Inflation Targeting
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Author : Mr.Edward R. Gemayel
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-11-01
What Can Low Income Countries Expect From Adopting Inflation Targeting written by Mr.Edward R. Gemayel and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Inflation targeting (IT) is a relatively new monetary policy framework for low-income countries (LICs). The limited number of LICs with an IT framework and the short time that has elapsed since the adoption of this framework explains why there are no previous empirical studies on the performance of IT in LICs. This paper has made a first attempt at filling this gap. It finds that inflation targeting appears to be associated with lower inflation and inflation volatility. At the same time, there is no robust evidence of an adverse impact on output. This may explain the appeal of IT for many LICs, where building credibility of monetary policy is difficult and minimizing output costs of reducing inflation is imperative for social and political reasons.