Does International Trade Really Lead To Business Cycle Synchronization
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Does International Trade Really Lead To Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : Michael J. Artis
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Does International Trade Really Lead To Business Cycle Synchronization written by Michael J. Artis and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.
Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : Mr.Romain A Duval
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-04-03
Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization written by Mr.Romain A Duval and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-03 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.
Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : Eric Monnet
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-03-08
Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization written by Eric Monnet and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper assesses the strength of business cycle synchronization between 1950 and 2014 in a sample of 21 countries using a new quarterly dataset based on IMF archival data. Contrary to the common wisdom, we find that the globalization period is not associated with more output synchronization at the global level. The world business cycle was as strong during Bretton Woods (1950-1971) than during the Globalization period (1984-2006). Although globalization did not affect the average level of co-movement, trade and financial integration strongly affect the way countries co-move with the rest of the world. We find that financial integration de-synchronizes national outputs from the world cycle, although the magnitude of this effect depends crucially on the type of shocks hitting the world economy. This de-synchronizing effect has offset the synchronizing impact of other forces, such as increased trade integration.
How Does Globalization Affect The Synchronization Of Business Cycles
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Author : Mr.Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-03-04
How Does Globalization Affect The Synchronization Of Business Cycles written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-03-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited support for the conventional wisdom that globalization has increased the degree of synchronization of business cycles. The evidence that trade and financial integration enhance global spillovers of macroeconomic fluctuations is stronger for industrial countries. One striking result is that, on average, cross-country consumption correlations have not increased in the 1990s, precisely when financial integration would have been expected to result in better risk-sharing opportunities, especially for developing countries.
Business Cycle Synchronization And Regional Integration
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Author : Norbert Fiess
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2005
Business Cycle Synchronization And Regional Integration written by Norbert Fiess and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Business Cycle categories.
Abstract: In early January 2003, the United States and Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua launched official negotiations for the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), a treaty that would expand NAFTA-style trade barrier reductions to Central America. With deeper trade integration between Central America and the United States, it is expected that there will be closer links in business cycles between Central American countries and the United States. The paper finds a relatively low degree of business cycle synchronization within Central America as well as between Central America and the United States. The business cycle synchronization is expected to increase only modestly with further trade expansion, making the coordination of macroeconomic policies within CAFTA somewhat less of a priority.
Business Cycle Synchronization And Regional Integration
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Author : Norbert Fiess
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Business Cycle Synchronization And Regional Integration written by Norbert Fiess and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Electronic book categories.
How Much Does International Trade Affect Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : William C. Gruben
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2002
How Much Does International Trade Affect Business Cycle Synchronization written by William C. Gruben and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with Business cycles categories.
Business Cycle Synchronization And Regional Integration
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Author : Norbert Fiess
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Business Cycle Synchronization And Regional Integration written by Norbert Fiess and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.
Deeper trade integration between Central America and the United States, as envisaged under the Central American Free Trade Agreement, is likely to lead to closer links between Central American and U.S. business cycles. This article assesses the degree of business cycle synchronization between Central America and the United States-relevant not only for a better understanding of the influence of important trading partners on the business cycle fluctuations in the domestic economy but for evaluating the costs and benefits of macroeconomic coordination.
International Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : Hyeon hun I
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
International Business Cycle Synchronization written by Hyeon hun I and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with categories.
We synthetically assess the three major transmission channels of international business cycles: bilateral trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), and portfolio investment flows between economies with multiple fixed effects. Using the data of 72 economies during 2010-2019, we find that real and financial integration generates heterogeneous impacts on business cycle comovement. Trade integration, particularly through intermediate input trade, drives business cycle synchronization. We also find greenfield FDI leads business cycle comovements. This may be due to deepening intra-industry trade and dense global value chains. Higher debt market integration is also associated with more synchronized business cycle comovement, implying that balance sheet effects and the related credit cycle can exert influence on business cycle comovements. However, equity integration leads to business cycle divergence, suggesting that cross-border equity holdings may help stabilize transmission of a foreign economy's shocks.
International Trade And Business Cycle Synchronization In Poland The European Union And The Euro Zone
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Author : Piotr Misztal
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
International Trade And Business Cycle Synchronization In Poland The European Union And The Euro Zone written by Piotr Misztal and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
The analysis of business cycle synchronization levels has become a key point in the discussion of the processes of international economic integration. Economists show a particular interest in analyzing the frequency of processes of business cycle convergence and divergence (decoupling) in the European Union, especially in the Euro Zone. One of the factors determining business cycle convergence in economies is the intensity and structure of international trade. The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence exerted by international trade over the synchronization of business cycles in Poland, the European Union and the Euro Zone from 1995 to 2011. The analytical methods employed here encompass a review of the literature on macroeconomics and international finance, as well as econometric models (such as the Vector Autoregression Model). The results of empirical research indicate that an increase in trade turnover does not necessarily lead to greater business cycle synchronization in the economies under analysis. In fact, the impact of an increase in countries' turnover on the synchronization of their business cycles depends predominantly on the structure of trade turnover and not solely on the intensity of trade.