Dollar Trinity And The Global Financial Cycle
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Dollar Trinity And The Global Financial Cycle
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Author : Georgios Georgiadis
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2023
Dollar Trinity And The Global Financial Cycle written by Georgios Georgiadis and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023 with categories.
We develop a two-country business-cycle model of the US and the rest of the world with dollar dominance in trade invoicing, in cross-border credit, and in safe assets. The interplay between these elements - dollar trinity - rationalizes salient features of the Global Financial Cycle in the data: When its tide subsides, the dollar appreciates, financial conditions tighten, the world business cycle slows down, and emerging-market central banks face a trade-off between mitigating the recession and dampening price pressures. We find the dollar is no sideshow in this, but central for the transmission of the Global Financial Cycle to the world economy.
Dollar Safety And The Global Financial Cycle
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Author : Zhengyang Jiang
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Dollar Safety And The Global Financial Cycle written by Zhengyang Jiang and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
We build a model of the global financial cycle with one key ingredient: the demand for safe dollar assets. The model matches patterns of dollar borrowing and currency mismatch, the U.S. external balance sheet, low U.S. interest rates and exorbitant privilege, spillovers of the U.S. monetary policy to the rest of the world, and the dollar as a global risk factor. In doing so, we lay out a novel transmission mechanism through which the U.S. monetary policy affects the currency market and the global economy.
How Important Is The Global Financial Cycle Evidence From Capital Flows
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Author : Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-09-01
How Important Is The Global Financial Cycle Evidence From Capital Flows written by Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-09-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This study quantifies the importance of a Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) for capital flows. We use capital flow data dis-aggregated by direction and type between 1990Q1 and 2015Q5 for 85 countries, and conventional techniques, models and metrics. Since the GFCy is an unobservable concept, we use two methods to represent it: directly observable variables in center economies often linked to it, such as the VIX; and indirect manifestations, proxied by common dynamic factors extracted from actual capital flows. Our evidence seems mostly inconsistent with a significant and conspicuous GFCy; both methods combined rarely explain more than a quarter of the variation in capital flows. Succinctly, most variation in capital flows does not seem to be the result of common shocks nor stem from observables in a central country like the United States.
The Dollar Trap
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Author : Eswar S. Prasad
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2015-08-25
The Dollar Trap written by Eswar S. Prasad and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-08-25 with Business & Economics categories.
Why the dollar is—and will remain—the dominant global currency The U.S. dollar's dominance seems under threat. The near collapse of the U.S. financial system in 2008–2009, political paralysis that has blocked effective policymaking, and emerging competitors such as the Chinese renminbi have heightened speculation about the dollar’s looming displacement as the main reserve currency. Yet, as The Dollar Trap powerfully argues, the financial crisis, a dysfunctional international monetary system, and U.S. policies have paradoxically strengthened the dollar’s importance. Eswar Prasad examines how the dollar came to have a central role in the world economy and demonstrates that it will remain the cornerstone of global finance for the foreseeable future. Marshaling a range of arguments and data, and drawing on the latest research, Prasad shows why it will be difficult to dislodge the dollar-centric system. With vast amounts of foreign financial capital locked up in dollar assets, including U.S. government securities, other countries now have a strong incentive to prevent a dollar crash. Prasad takes the reader through key contemporary issues in international finance—including the growing economic influence of emerging markets, the currency wars, the complexities of the China-U.S. relationship, and the role of institutions like the International Monetary Fund—and offers new ideas for fixing the flawed monetary system. Readers are also given a rare look into some of the intrigue and backdoor scheming in the corridors of international finance. The Dollar Trap offers a panoramic analysis of the fragile state of global finance and makes a compelling case that, despite all its flaws, the dollar will remain the ultimate safe-haven currency.
Money How The Destruction Of The Dollar Threatens The Global Economy And What We Can Do About It
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Author : Steve Forbes
language : en
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
Release Date : 2014-06-06
Money How The Destruction Of The Dollar Threatens The Global Economy And What We Can Do About It written by Steve Forbes and has been published by McGraw Hill Professional this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Why a return to sound money is our only hope for a true recovery and a healthy global economy “Money clearly illustrates that sound money is an essential foundation for a free and prosperous society and that the Federal Reserve’s current policies are a greater threat to the economic future of the U.S. than government deficit spending. This is an important book well worth reading.” -- John A. Allison, President and CEO, Cato Institute, and author of the New York Times bestselling The Financial Crisis and the Free Market Cure “Few topics today are as misunderstood as the subject of money. Steve Forbes understands money better than most heads of state do, and in this provocative book he shares his vast knowledge and gives us sensible and time-tested recommendations for stopping future financial meltdowns.” -- Lawrence Kudlow, CNBC Senior Contributor “Economic and monetary policies can be difficult to master for even the savviest politicians. Money effectively communicates these complexities into a cohesive argument for economic recovery and preventing a new financial crisis. Steve Forbes and Elizabeth Ames deliver a gripping read and an intriguing viewpoint on how to get our economy back on track.” --Greta Van Susteren, host of On the Record, Fox News Channel Few topics are as misunderstood today as the subject of money. Since the U.S. abandoned a gold-linked dollar more than four decades ago, the world’s governments have slid into a dangerous ignorance of the fundamental monetary principles that guided the world’s most successful economies for centuries. Today’s wrong-headed monetary policies are now setting the stage for a new global economic and social catastrophe that could rival the recent financial crisis and even the horrors of the 1930s. Coauthored by Steve Forbes, one of the world’s leading experts on finance, Money shows you why that doesn’t need to happen--and how to prevent it. After reading this entertaining and hugely well-informed book, you will know more about money than most people in the highest government positions today. Money explains why a return to sound money is absolutely essential if the U.S. and other nations are ever to overcome today’s problems. Stable money, Steve Forbes and Elizabeth Ames argue, is the only way to a true recovery and a stable and prosperous economy. Today’s system of fluctuating “fiat” money, in which governments manipulate the value of the dollar and other currencies, has been responsible for the biggest economic failures of recent decades, including the 2008 financial crisis, from whose effects we continue to suffer. The Obama/Bernanke/Yellen Federal Reserve and its unstable dollar policies are accelerating our course toward disaster, the authors show, in numerous convincing examples. In Money, Forbes and Ames answer these crucial questions: What is the difference between money and value? What is real wealth? How does sound money contribute to a well-functioning society? How have our money policy errors led to the current problems in global financial markets? What can we do now to reestablish the strength of the dollar and other currencies? The authors argue that the most effective way to return to a sound money policy and a healthy economy is to put the dollar back on a gold standard, and they outline the several different forms a gold standard could take. They also share invaluable suggestions for how to preserve our wealth and where to invest our money. Money is essential reading for anyone interested in this crucially important subject.
The Global Currency Power Of The Us Dollar
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Author : Anthony Elson
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-09-15
The Global Currency Power Of The Us Dollar written by Anthony Elson and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-15 with Business & Economics categories.
This book explains how the US dollar serves as the primary reserve currency for the international financial system and assesses its prospects for the future. The book provides an analysis of the main factors that have given rise to the global currency power of the dollar and the key benefits that have accrued to both the United States and other countries from this arrangement. It then considers the growing costs that can be associated with the dollar-centered reserve system and the prospects for the medium-term in terms of its potential threats to global financial stability. In the light of these considerations, the book examines three alternative currency arrangements that could address some or all of the defects associated with the global currency power of the dollar. These include a shift to a multi-reserve currency system, an enhancement of the IMF’s role as an international lender of last resort and provider of global “safe” assets, and the introduction of central bank digital currencies. "A cogent, persuasive and timely look at the dollar's power." Kirkus Reviews
How Global Currencies Work
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Author : Barry Eichengreen
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2019-02-26
How Global Currencies Work written by Barry Eichengreen and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-26 with Business & Economics categories.
A powerful new understanding of global currency trends, including the rise of the Chinese yuan At first glance, the history of the modern global economy seems to support the long-held view that the currency of the world’s leading power invariably dominates international trade and finance. But in How Global Currencies Work, three noted economists overturn this conventional wisdom. Offering a new history of global finance over the past two centuries and marshaling extensive new data to test current theories of how global currencies work, the authors show that several national monies can share international currency status—and that their importance can change rapidly. They demonstrate how changes in technology and international trade and finance have reshaped the landscape of international currencies so that several international financial standards can coexist. In fact, they show that multiple international and reserve currencies have coexisted in the past—upending the traditional view of the British pound’s dominance before 1945 and the U.S. dollar’s postwar dominance. Looking forward, the book tackles the implications of this new framework for major questions facing the future of the international monetary system, including how increased currency competition might affect global financial stability.
Us Monetary Policy And The Global Financial Cycle
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Author : Silvia Miranda-Agrippino
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Us Monetary Policy And The Global Financial Cycle written by Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.
We analyze the workings of the "Global Financial Cycle." We study the effects of monetary policy of the United States, the center country of the international monetary system, on the joint dynamics of the domestic business cycle and international financial variables such as global credit growth, cross-border credit flows, global banks leverage and risky asset prices. One global factor, driven in part by US monetary policy, explains an important share of the variance of returns of risky assets around the world. We find evidence of large financial spillovers from the hegemon to the rest of the world.
Dollar Illiquidity And Central Bank Swap Arrangements During The Global Financial Crisis
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Author : Andrew K. Rose
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Dollar Illiquidity And Central Bank Swap Arrangements During The Global Financial Crisis written by Andrew K. Rose and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Banks and banking, Central categories.
While the global financial crisis was centered in the United States, it led to a surprising appreciation in the dollar, suggesting global dollar illiquidity. In response, the Federal Reserve partnered with other central banks to inject dollars into the international financial system. Empirical studies of the success of these efforts have yielded mixed results, in part because their timing is likely to be endogenous. In this paper, we examine the cross-sectional impact of these interventions. Theory consistent with dollar appreciation in the crisis suggests that their impact should be greater for countries that have greater exposure to the United States through trade and financial channels, less transparent holdings of dollar assets, and greater illiquidity difficulties. We examine these predictions for observed cross-sectional changes in CDS spreads, using a new proxy for innovations in perceived changes in sovereign risk based upon Google-search data. We find robust evidence that auctions of dollar assets by foreign central banks disproportionately benefited countries that were more exposed to the United States through either trade linkages or asset exposure. We obtain weaker results for differences in asset transparency or illiquidity. However, several of the important announcements concerning the international swap programs disproportionately benefited countries exhibiting greater asset opaqueness.
A Theory Of The Global Financial Cycle
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Author : J. Scott Davis
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
A Theory Of The Global Financial Cycle written by J. Scott Davis and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with Capital movements categories.
We develop a theory to account for changes in prices of risky and safe assets and gross and net capital flows over the global financial cycle (GFC). The multi-country model features global risk-aversion shocks and heterogeneity of investors both within and across countries. Within-country heterogeneity is needed to account for the drop in gross capital flows during a negative GFC shock (higher global risk-aversion). Cross-country heterogeneity is needed to account for the differential vulnerability of countries to a negative GFC shock. The key vulnerability is associated with leverage. In both the data and the theory, leveraged countries (net borrowers of safe assets) deleverage through negative net outflows of risky assets and positive net outflows of safe assets, experience a rise in the current account and a greater than average drop in risky asset prices. The opposite is the case for non-leveraged countries (net lenders of safe assets).