Dynamics Of Contagion And Spillover Effects
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Dynamics Of Contagion And Spillover Effects
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Author : Rakesh Shahani
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Dynamics Of Contagion And Spillover Effects written by Rakesh Shahani and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
The present study makes an attempt to investigate the dynamics of contagion and spillover of volatility amongst stock markets of five economies which include three developed nations; US , UK and Japan and two Asian emerging economies viz. India and China The period of study is eleven years; Jan 1, 2009-Dec 31, 2019 and the data is collected for daily closing prices of the indices. The study makes a distinction between contagion and spillover whereby a shock is considered spillover if its impact is seen with a lag of one period only and no more lags after the shock has occurred, while contagion is a residual transmission after accounting for all other transmissions including spillover(Masson, P. (1998) ; Dungey, M. and Martin, V.L. (2007)) The results of the study revealed that there was substantial contagion and information flows from one market to another , be it developed or emerging . Further although US markets continue to play a major role in deciding the direction of markets, the importance of other markets has increased over the years. Further, US market on its own now appears to look for clues from both developed and emerging markets including India and China. On the other hand , the stock market of UK follows the return movement and volatility mainly from US markets. The two emerging markets of Asia, India and China observe a lot of co-movement in returns with spillovers being linked to the developed markets which includes US as global market and Japan as regional market. The study also tested for pre-conditions of stationarity, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity and the model was modified wherever necessary in order to make the results of the study robust.
Financial Market Dynamics After Covid 19
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Author : Stéphane Goutte
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2022-04-27
Financial Market Dynamics After Covid 19 written by Stéphane Goutte and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-04-27 with Business & Economics categories.
This book analyses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in different areas of Finance emphasizing the contagion effect in capital markets. The volume presents evidence-based case studies from the global financial crisis that followed after the onset of the pandemic in March 2020.
Financial Contagion With Spillover Effects
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Author : Gustavo Peralta
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Financial Contagion With Spillover Effects written by Gustavo Peralta and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
This paper presents a comprehensive model of financial contagion encompassing both direct and indirect transmission channels. We introduce direct contagion through a 2-layered multiplex network to account for the distinct dynamics resulting from collateralized and uncollateralized transactions. Moreover, the spillover effects of fire sales, haircut prociclicality and liquidity hoarding are specifically considered through indirect transmission channels. This framework allows us to analyze the determinants of systemic crisis and the resilience of different financial network configurations. Our first experiment demonstrates the benefits of counterparty diversification as a way of reducing systemic risk. The second experiment highlights the positive effect of higher initial capital and liquidity levels, while stressing the potentially counterproductive impact of rapidly increasing the minimum capital and liquidity ratios. The third experiment examines the possibility of controlling the maximum haircut rates, although the impact of this measure is modest compared to other alternatives. Finally, our last experiment evidences the fundamental role played by fire sales and market liquidity in either leading or mitigating systemic crises.
The Dynamics Of Spillover Effects During The European Sovereign Debt Crisis
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Author : Adrian Alter
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
The Dynamics Of Spillover Effects During The European Sovereign Debt Crisis written by Adrian Alter and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
In this paper we develop empirical measures for the strength of spillover effects. Modifying and extending the framework by Diebold and Yilmaz (2011), we quantify spillovers between sovereign credit markets and banks in the euro area. Spillovers are estimated recursively from a vector autoregressive model of daily CDS spread changes, with exogenous common factors. We account for interdependencies between sovereign and bank CDS spreads and we derive generalised impulse response functions. Specifically, we assess the systemic effect of an unexpected shock to the creditworthiness of a particular sovereign or country-specific bank index to other sovereign or bank CDSs between October 2009 and July 2012. Channels of transmission from or to sovereigns and banks are aggregated as a Contagion Index (CI). This index is disentangled into four components, the average potential spillover: i) amongst sovereigns, ii) amongst banks, iii) from sovereigns to banks, and iv) vice-versa. We highlight the impact of policy-related events along the different components of the contagion index. The systemic contribution of each sovereign or banking group is quantified as the net spillover weight in the total net-spillover measure. Finally, the captured time-varying interdependence between banks and sovereigns emphasises the evolution of their strong nexus.
Financial And Macroeconomic Connectedness
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Author : Francis X. Diebold
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2015-02-03
Financial And Macroeconomic Connectedness written by Francis X. Diebold and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-02-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Connections among different assets, asset classes, portfolios, and the stocks of individual institutions are critical in examining financial markets. Interest in financial markets implies interest in underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. In Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness, Frank Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz propose a simple framework for defining, measuring, and monitoring connectedness, which is central to finance and macroeconomics. These measures of connectedness are theoretically rigorous yet empirically relevant. The approach to connectedness proposed by the authors is intimately related to the familiar econometric notion of variance decomposition. The full set of variance decompositions from vector auto-regressions produces the core of the 'connectedness table.' The connectedness table makes clear how one can begin with the most disaggregated pair-wise directional connectedness measures and aggregate them in various ways to obtain total connectedness measures. The authors also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that these proposed connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. After describing their methods in the first part of the book, the authors proceed to characterize daily return and volatility connectedness across major asset (stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodity) markets as well as the financial institutions within the U.S. and across countries since late 1990s. These specific measures of volatility connectedness show that stock markets played a critical role in spreading the volatility shocks from the U.S. to other countries. Furthermore, while the return connectedness across stock markets increased gradually over time the volatility connectedness measures were subject to significant jumps during major crisis events. This book examines not only financial connectedness, but also real fundamental connectedness. In particular, the authors show that global business cycle connectedness is economically significant and time-varying, that the U.S. has disproportionately high connectedness to others, and that pairwise country connectedness is inversely related to bilateral trade surpluses.
Contagion Phenomena With Applications In Finance
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Author : Serge Darolles
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2015-08-26
Contagion Phenomena With Applications In Finance written by Serge Darolles and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-08-26 with Mathematics categories.
Much research into financial contagion and systematic risks has been motivated by the finding that cross-market correlations (resp. coexceedances) between asset returns increase significantly during crisis periods. Is this increase due to an exogenous shock common to all markets (interdependence) or due to certain types of transmission of shocks between markets (contagion)? Darolles and Gourieroux explain that an attempt to convey contagion and causality in a static framework can be flawed due to identification problems; they provide a more precise definition of the notion of shock to strengthen the solution within a dynamic framework. This book covers the standard practice for defining shocks in SVAR models, impulse response functions, identitification issues, static and dynamic models, leading to the challenges of measurement of systematic risk and contagion, with interpretations of hedge fund survival and market liquidity risks Features the standard practice of defining shocks to models to help you to define impulse response and dynamic consequences Shows that identification of shocks can be solved in a dynamic framework, even within a linear perspective Helps you to apply the models to portfolio management, risk monitoring, and the analysis of financial stability
The Dynamics Of Stock Market Volatility An Analysis Of Spillover Effect In Asian Market
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Author : Shah Arjun
language : en
Publisher: Arjun Shah
Release Date : 2023-02-28
The Dynamics Of Stock Market Volatility An Analysis Of Spillover Effect In Asian Market written by Shah Arjun and has been published by Arjun Shah this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-02-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Stock markets serve as the economic barometers. The relationship between the two capital markets can be studied as a proxy to understand the relation between the two economies. The movement of stock market not only reflects the nation's economic condition but also the confidence level the domestic and foreign investors have in an economy. The increase in integration between the global economies has resulted in convergence and co movement. The purpose of this study is to examine the presence of volatility and test the uniformity in the extent of volatility, to investigate the possible contagion effect between the selected developed and emerging market, to check for the spillover effect between the Indian stock market and the other five sampled markets and finally inspect the relationship between the volume and volatility in the capital markets of Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, India, China and Philippines. Stratified- convenience sampling technique is used to pick the samples and daily index values are taken from the major index of these countries for a period of seven years. The time series data were tested for stationarity and normality using ADF, PP tests and Jarque-Bera test. Returns, SD, ARIMA, ARCH, GARCH, BEKK-GARCH, Granger causality test, VAR model and Variance decomposition techniques are used for the analysis.
International Financial Contagion
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Author : Stijn Claessens
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-04-17
International Financial Contagion written by Stijn Claessens and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-17 with Business & Economics categories.
No sooner had the Asian crisis broken out in 1997 than the witch-hunt started. With great indignation every Asian economy pointed fingers. They were innocent bystanders. The fundamental reason for the crisis was this or that - most prominently contagion - but also the decline in exports of the new commodities (high-tech goods), the steep rise of the dollar, speculators, etc. The prominent question, of course, is whether contagion could really have been the key factor and, if so, what are the channels and mechanisms through which it operated in such a powerful manner. The question is obvious because until 1997, Asia's economies were generally believed to be immensely successful, stable and well managed. This question is of great importance not only in understanding just what happened, but also in shaping policies. In a world of pure contagion, i.e. when innocent bystanders are caught up and trampled by events not of their making and when consequences go far beyond ordinary international shocks, countries will need to look for better protective policies in the future. In such a world, the international financial system will need to change in order to offer better preventive and reactive policy measures to help avoid, or at least contain, financial crises.
Systemic Risk
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Author : Prasanna Gai
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2013-03-28
Systemic Risk written by Prasanna Gai and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-28 with Business & Economics categories.
This book applies some of the lessons from network disciplines - such as ecology, epidemiology, and engineering - to study and measure how small probability events can lead to contagion and banking crises on a global scale.
Handbook Of Global Financial Markets Transformations Dependence And Risk Spillovers
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Author : Sabri Boubaker
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2019-06-27
Handbook Of Global Financial Markets Transformations Dependence And Risk Spillovers written by Sabri Boubaker and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-27 with Business & Economics categories.
The objective of this handbook is to provide the readers with insights about current dynamics and future potential transformations of global financial markets. We intend to focus on four main areas: Dynamics of Financial Markets; Financial Uncertainty and Volatility; Market Linkages and Spillover Effects; and Extreme Events and Financial Transformations and address the following critical issues, but not limited to: market integration and its implications; crisis risk assessment and contagion effects; financial uncertainty and volatility; role of emerging financial markets in the global economy; role of complex dynamics of economic and financial systems; market linkages, asset valuation and risk management; exchange rate volatility and firm-level exposure; financial effects of economic, political and social risks; link between financial development and economic growth; country risks; and sovereign debt markets.