Economic Fluctuations In Emerging Market Economies
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Economic Fluctuations In Emerging Market Economies
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004
Economic Fluctuations In Emerging Market Economies written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with categories.
Economic Fluctuations In Emerging Market Economies
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Author : Marc Yvon Robert
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2003
Economic Fluctuations In Emerging Market Economies written by Marc Yvon Robert and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with categories.
Economic Fluctuations In Emerging Market Economies
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Author : Marc Yvon Robert
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2003
Economic Fluctuations In Emerging Market Economies written by Marc Yvon Robert and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with categories.
This thesis focuses on economic fluctuations in emerging economies, with a particular emphasis put on the recent sudden stop crises. In a first step, we study the triggering of the crisis and focus on the 1997-1998 Korean crisis. We use a calibrated general equilibrium model to discriminate between the domestic and external causes of the crisis. Then, we analyze the role played by credit rationning in explaining the amplification of sudden stops in emerging economies. Using a general equilibrium model of a small open economy, we show that including a credit constraint into the model is a crucial assumption in order to be able the reproduce the sudden stops main characteristics. The last step is an empirical study of the link between capital flows and emerging economies business cycles. We prove that movements in capital flows do not Granger cause changes in emerging countries GDP growth rates even during sudden stop episodes, whereas the reverse causal relationship turns out to be true.
The Role Of Interest Rates In Business Cycle Fluctuations In Emerging Market Countries
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Author : Mr.Ivan Tchakarov
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2006-05-01
The Role Of Interest Rates In Business Cycle Fluctuations In Emerging Market Countries written by Mr.Ivan Tchakarov and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-05-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Emerging market countries have enjoyed an exceptionally favorable economic environment throughout 2004, 2005, and early 2006. In particular, accommodative U.S. monetary policy in recent years has helped create an environment of low interest rates in international capital markets. However, if world interest rates were to take a sudden upward course, this would lead to less hospitable financing conditions for emerging market countries. The purpose of this paper is to measure the effects of world interest rate shocks on real activity in Thailand. The analysis incorporates balance sheet related credit market frictions into the IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) and finds that Thailand would best minimize the adverse effects of rising world interest rates if it were to follow a flexible exchange rate regime.
Idiosyncratic Shocks And Aggregate Fluctuations In An Emerging Market
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Author : Mr. Francesco Grigoli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-12-10
Idiosyncratic Shocks And Aggregate Fluctuations In An Emerging Market written by Mr. Francesco Grigoli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-10 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper provides the first assessment of the contribution of idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market using confidential data on the universe of Chilean firms. We find that idiosyncratic shocks account for more than 40 percent of the volatility of aggregate sales. Although quite large, this contribution is smaller than documented in previous studies based on advanced economies, despite a higher degree of market concentration in Chile.We show that this finding is explained by larger firms being less volatile and by weaker propagation effects across Chilean firms.
Emerging Markets
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Author : Eswar S. Prasad
language : en
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Release Date : 2011-02-01
Emerging Markets written by Eswar S. Prasad and has been published by Rowman & Littlefield this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-02-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Emerging market economies (EMEs) have become the darlings of international investors and the focus of enormous attention in academic, media, and policy circles. M. Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad present the definitive account of the evolution of EMEs and use the lens of the global financial crisis to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses. Led by a set of large and dynamic countries—including Brazil, China, India, and Russia—EMEs have become a dominant presence in the world economy. They now account for a substantial share of world output and have been a major driver of global growth during the past decade. They are significant players in international trade and financial flows and are beginning to exert rising clout in global policy debates. However, the financial crisis of 2007–09 and the worldwide recession that followed cast a pall over the notion that EMEs had become self-reliant and "decoupled" from demand conditions in and financial flows from advanced countries. Kose and Prasad, prominent experts on emerging market economies and globalization, draw on their extensive research to assess the resilience of EMEs in the face of the global financial crisis. Their analysis shows that EMEs, as a group, weathered the crisis much better than the advanced countries, and most of these economies have bounced back rapidly from the global recession. The authors track down the reasons for this resilience and explain why some countries in this group have done better than others. Based on this analysis, they draw lessons for the durability and sustainability of these economies' long-term growth. This book is important reading for anyone trying to anticipate the future growth of emerging markets or contemplating business opportunities in these economies.
Emerging Market Economies And Financial Globalization
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Author : Leonardo E. Stanley
language : en
Publisher: Anthem Press
Release Date : 2018-03-15
Emerging Market Economies And Financial Globalization written by Leonardo E. Stanley and has been published by Anthem Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-15 with Business & Economics categories.
In the past, foreign shocks arrived to national economies mainly through trade channels, and transmissions of such shocks took time to come into effect. However, after capital globalization, shocks spread to markets almost immediately. Despite the increasing macroeconomic dangers that the situation generated at emerging markets in the South, nobody at the North was ready to acknowledge the pro-cyclicality of the financial system and the inner weakness of “decontrolled” financial innovations because they were enjoying from the “great moderation.” Monetary policy was primarily centered on price stability objectives, without considering the mounting credit and asset price booms being generated by market liquidity and the problems generated by this glut. Mainstream economists, in turn, were not majorly attracted in integrating financial factors in their models. External pressures on emerging market economies (EMEs) were not eliminated after 2008, but even increased as international capital flows augmented in relevance thereafter. Initially economic authorities accurately responded to the challenge, but unconventional monetary policies in the US began to create important spillovers in EMEs. Furthermore, in contrast to a previous surge in liquidity, funds were now transmitted to EMEs throughout the bond market. The perspective of an increase in US interest rates by the FED is generating a reversal of expectations and a sudden flight to quality. Emerging countries’ currencies began to experience higher volatility levels, and depreciation movements against a newly strong US dollar are also increasingly observed. Consequently, there are increasing doubts that the “unexpected” favorable outcome observed in most EMEs at the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) would remain.
Global Business Cycles
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Author : Mr.Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2008-06-01
Global Business Cycles written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-06-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
Macroeconomics In Emerging Markets
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Author : Peter J. Montiel
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2003-04-10
Macroeconomics In Emerging Markets written by Peter J. Montiel and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-04-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Table of contents
Economic Crises And Stabilisation Policy In Emerging Market Economies
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Author : Leon Du Toit
language : en
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Release Date : 2010-06
Economic Crises And Stabilisation Policy In Emerging Market Economies written by Leon Du Toit and has been published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-06 with categories.
The recent macroeconomic history of emerging market economies is coloured with economic crises of all kinds, ranging from debt-crises, through hyperinflationary periods to currency crises to name but a few. This, along with the peculiar exposure of emerging markets to international economic shocks have resulted in volatile business cycles in these countries. This work explores the role that stabilisation policy has played in dampening the volatility of these crisis and shock-related business fluctuations. Fiscal and monetary interventions, working mainly through the demand-side of the economy, have been mildly succesful in mitigating the negative economic effects associated with economic crises. The dominance of supply shocks and the institutional origin of economic crises imply that stabilisation policy in emerging markets can only become more effective if appropriate structural changes are encouraged.