The Role Of Interest Rates In Business Cycle Fluctuations In Emerging Market Countries
DOWNLOAD
Download The Role Of Interest Rates In Business Cycle Fluctuations In Emerging Market Countries PDF/ePub or read online books in Mobi eBooks. Click Download or Read Online button to get The Role Of Interest Rates In Business Cycle Fluctuations In Emerging Market Countries book now. This website allows unlimited access to, at the time of writing, more than 1.5 million titles, including hundreds of thousands of titles in various foreign languages. If the content not found or just blank you must refresh this page
The Role Of Interest Rates In Business Cycle Fluctuations In Emerging Market Countries
DOWNLOAD
Author : Mr.Ivan Tchakarov
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2006-05-01
The Role Of Interest Rates In Business Cycle Fluctuations In Emerging Market Countries written by Mr.Ivan Tchakarov and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-05-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Emerging market countries have enjoyed an exceptionally favorable economic environment throughout 2004, 2005, and early 2006. In particular, accommodative U.S. monetary policy in recent years has helped create an environment of low interest rates in international capital markets. However, if world interest rates were to take a sudden upward course, this would lead to less hospitable financing conditions for emerging market countries. The purpose of this paper is to measure the effects of world interest rate shocks on real activity in Thailand. The analysis incorporates balance sheet related credit market frictions into the IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) and finds that Thailand would best minimize the adverse effects of rising world interest rates if it were to follow a flexible exchange rate regime.
Imf Working Papers
DOWNLOAD
Author : Ivan Tchakarov
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Imf Working Papers written by Ivan Tchakarov and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Electronic books categories.
Business Cycles In Emerging Economies
DOWNLOAD
Author : Pablo A. Neumeyer
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Business Cycles In Emerging Economies written by Pablo A. Neumeyer and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with categories.
This paper documents the empirical relation between the interest rates that emerging economies face in international capital markets and their business cycles. The dataset used in the study includes quarterly data for Argentina during 1983-2000 and for Brazil, Mexico, Korea, and Philippines, during 1994-2000. In this sample, interest rates are very volatile, strongly countercyclical, and strongly positively correlated with net exports. Output is very volatile and consumption is more volatile than output. These regularities are common to all emerging economies in the sample, but are not observed in a developed economy such as Canada. The paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy, in which (i) firms have to pay for a fraction of the input bill before production takes place, and in which (ii) the labor supply is independent of consumption. Using a version of the model calibrated to Argentina s economy, we find that interest rate shocks alone can explain 50% of output fluctuations and can generate business cycle patterns consistent with the regularities described above and with the major booms and recessions in Argentina in the last two decades. We conclude that interest rates are an important factor for explaining business cycles in emerging economies and further research should be devoted to fully understand their determination.
Emerging Market Business Cycles
DOWNLOAD
Author : Ms.Emine Boz
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-10-02
Emerging Market Business Cycles written by Ms.Emine Boz and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-10-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Emerging economies are characterized by higher consumption and real wage variability relative to output and a strongly countercyclical current account. A real business cycle model of a small open economy that embeds a Mortensen-Pissarides type of search-matching frictions and countercyclical interest rate shocks can jointly account for these regularities. In the face of countercyclical interest rate shocks, search-matching frictions increase future employment uncertainty, improving workers’ incentive to save and generating a greater response of consumption and the current account. Higher consumption response in turn feeds into larger fluctuations in the workers’ bargaining power while the interest rates shocks lead to variations in the firms’ willingness to hire; both of which contribute to a highly variable real wage.
Labor Share Fluctuations In Emerging Markets
DOWNLOAD
Author : Serdar Kabaca
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Labor Share Fluctuations In Emerging Markets written by Serdar Kabaca and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.
This paper contributes to the literature by documenting labor income share fluctuations in emerging economies and proposing an explanation for them. We show that emerging markets differ from developed markets in terms of changes in the labor share over the business cycle. Labor share is more volatile in emerging markets and is pro-cyclical with output, especially in countries facing counter-cyclical interest rates. On the contrary, labor share in developed markets is more stable and slightly counter-cyclical with output. A frictionless RBC model cannot account for these facts. We introduce working capital into an RBC model, which generates liquidity need for labor payments. The main result is that the behavior of the cost of borrowing along with working capital mechanisms can predict the right sign of the comovement between labor share and output, and can partly be responsible for the volatility of labor share. We also show that imperfect financial markets in the form of credit restrictions not only amplify the results for the variability of labor share but also help better explain some of the striking business cycle regularities in emerging markets such as strongly pro-cyclical investment and counter-cyclical net exports. -- labor income share ; emerging markets ; working capital ; credit constraints
Macroeconomics In Emerging Markets
DOWNLOAD
Author : Peter J. Montiel
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2003-04-10
Macroeconomics In Emerging Markets written by Peter J. Montiel and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-04-10 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is a rigorous, yet nonmathematical analysis of key macroeconomic issues faced by emerging economies. The first part develops an analytical framework that can be used as a workhorse model to study short-run macroeconomic issues of stabilization and adjustment in such economies, comparable to the IS-LM framework widely used in intermediate-level macroeconomics textbooks for industrial countries. The rest of the book considers fiscal issues, financial sector issues, and issues concerning exchange rate regimes and policies. In the fiscal area, the focus is on the formulation of intertemporal policies, i.e. fiscal sustainability, seigniorage, and the roles of central bank independence and privatization of public enterprises in achieving fiscal credibility. The analysis of the financial sector examines its role in promoting welfare and growth. Finally, the book explores recent developments in the theory of appropriate exchange rate regimes and management, and provides an overview of currency crises.
Country Spreads And Emerging Countries
DOWNLOAD
Author : Martin Uribe
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2003
Country Spreads And Emerging Countries written by Martin Uribe and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Business cycles categories.
"A number of studies have stressed the role of movements in US interest rates and country spreads in driving business cycles in emerging market economies. At the same time, country spreads have been found to respond to changes in both the US interest rate and domestic conditions in emerging markets. These intricate interrelationships leave open a number of fundamental questions: Do country spreads drive business cycles in emerging countries or vice versa, or both? Do US interest rates affect emerging countries directly or primarily through their effect on country spreads? This paper addresses these and other related questions using a methodology that combines empirical and theoretical elements. The main findings of the paper are: (1) US interest rate shocks explain about 20 percent of movements in aggregate activity in emerging market economies at business-cycle frequency. (2) Country spread shocks explain about 12 percent of business-cycle movements in emerging economies. (3) About 60 percent of movements in country spreads are explained by country-spread shocks. (4) In response to an increase in US interest rates, country spreads first fall and then display a large, delayed overshooting; (5) US-interest-rate shocks affect domestic variables mostly through their effects on country spreads. (6) The fact that country spreads respond to business conditions in emerging economies significantly exacerbates aggregate volatility in these countries. (7) The US-interest-rate shocks and country-spread shocks identified in this paper are plausible in the sense that they imply similar business cycles in the context of an empirical VAR model as they do in the context of a theoretical dynamic general equilibrium model of an emerging market economy"--NBER website
Economic Fluctuations In Emerging Market Economies
DOWNLOAD
Author : Marc Yvon Robert
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2003
Economic Fluctuations In Emerging Market Economies written by Marc Yvon Robert and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with categories.
Modeling With Macro Financial Linkages
DOWNLOAD
Author : Ms.Inci Ötker
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2009-06
Modeling With Macro Financial Linkages written by Ms.Inci Ötker and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-06 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
Business Cycles In Small Developed Economies The Role Of Terms Of Trade And Foreign Interest Rate Shocks
DOWNLOAD
Author : Jaime Guajardo
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2008-04-01
Business Cycles In Small Developed Economies The Role Of Terms Of Trade And Foreign Interest Rate Shocks written by Jaime Guajardo and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-04-01 with categories.
Empirical evidence for small developed economies finds that consumption is procyclical and as volatile as output, and real net exports are coutercyclical. Earlier studies have not been able to reproduce these regularities in a DSGE small open economy model when productivity shocks drive the business cycles and households have a normal intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Instead, these studies have reduced this elasticity to make consumption more procyclical and volatile and real net exports countercyclical. This paper shows that a standard model can reproduce these regularities, without lowering the intertemporal substitution, if the terms of trade and foreign interest rate are added as source of business cycle fluctuations. These shocks, compared to productivity shocks, make consumption and investment more volatile and procyclical relative to output, and make real net exports countercyclical.