Efficient Estimation Of Forecast Uncertainty Based On Recent Forecast Errors
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Efficient Estimation Of Forecast Uncertainty Based On Recent Forecast Errors
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Author : Malte Knüppel
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Efficient Estimation Of Forecast Uncertainty Based On Recent Forecast Errors written by Malte Knüppel and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
Forecasting In The Presence Of Structural Breaks And Model Uncertainty
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Author : David E. Rapach
language : en
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Release Date : 2008-02-29
Forecasting In The Presence Of Structural Breaks And Model Uncertainty written by David E. Rapach and has been published by Emerald Group Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-02-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.
Business Forecasting
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Author : Michael Gilliland
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2016-01-05
Business Forecasting written by Michael Gilliland and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-01-05 with Business & Economics categories.
A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.
Advances In Info Metrics
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Author : Min Chen
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Release Date : 2020
Advances In Info Metrics written by Min Chen and has been published by Oxford University Press, USA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with Business & Economics categories.
"Info-metrics is a framework for rational inference on the basis of limited, or insufficient, information. It is the science of modeling, reasoning, and drawing inferences under conditions of noisy and insufficient information. Info-metrics has its roots in information theory (Shannon, 1948), Bernoulli's and Laplace's principle of insufficient reason (Bernoulli, 1713) and its offspring the principle of maximum entropy (Jaynes, 1957). It is an interdisciplinary framework situated at the intersection of information theory, statistical inference, and decision-making under uncertainty. Within a constrained optimization setup, info-metrics provides a simple way for modeling and understanding all types of systems and problems. It is a framework for processing the available information with minimal reliance on assumptions and information that cannot be validated. Quite often a model cannot be validated with finite data. Examples include biological, social and behavioral models, as well as models of cognition and knowledge. The info-metrics framework extends naturally for tackling these types of common problems"--
Forecasting Economic Time Series
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Author : Michael Clements
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1998-10-08
Forecasting Economic Time Series written by Michael Clements and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-10-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.
Economic Forecasting
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Author : Graham Elliott
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2016-04-05
Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-05 with Business & Economics categories.
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Predictable Uncertainty In Economic Forecasting
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Author : Neil R. Ericsson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2000
Predictable Uncertainty In Economic Forecasting written by Neil R. Ericsson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Economic forecasting categories.
This paper provides an introduction to predictable forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modelling. The sources of both predictable and unpredictable forecast uncertainty are categorized. Key features of predictable forecast uncertainty are illustrated by several analytical models, including static and dynamic models, and single-equation and multiple-equation models. Empirical models of the U.S. trade account, U.K. inflation, and U.K. real national income help clarify the issues involved.
Forecasting
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Author : David Hendry
language : en
Publisher: Yale University Press
Release Date : 2019-06-11
Forecasting written by David Hendry and has been published by Yale University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
Forecast Errors And Uncertainty Shocks
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Author : Sylwia Nowak
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-11-17
Forecast Errors And Uncertainty Shocks written by Sylwia Nowak and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-17 with Business & Economics categories.
Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism has dampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequent forecasts.
Gauging The Uncertainty Of The Economic Outlook From Historical Forecasting Errors
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Author : David Reifschneider
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Gauging The Uncertainty Of The Economic Outlook From Historical Forecasting Errors written by David Reifschneider and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Economic forecasting categories.