Energy Transition And Geoeconomic Fragmentation
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Energy Transition And Geoeconomic Fragmentation
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Author : Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-11-28
Energy Transition And Geoeconomic Fragmentation written by Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-11-28 with Business & Economics categories.
The transition to a low-carbon economy, which is needed to mitigate climate change and meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, has been affected by the supply chain and energy supply disruptions that originated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent energy crisis and exacerbation of geopolitical tensions. These developments, and the broader context of the ongoing “polycrisis,” can affect future decarbonization scenarios. This reflects three main factors: (1) pullbacks in climate mitigation policies and increased carbon lock-in in fossil fuel infrastructure and policymaking; (2) the decreasing likelihood of continuous cost reduction in renewable energy technologies; and (3) the likely intensification of macroeconomic shocks amid increasing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the associated policy responses. In this context, the note assesses the implications of the polycrisis for hypothetical scenarios used to assess climate-related financial risks. Following an analysis of the channels through which these effects are likely to materialize over short- and long-term horizons and some policy implications, the note proposes potential adjustments to the design of the climate scenarios used by financial institutions, central banks, and financial sector supervisors and regulators within their risk management frameworks.
Geoeconomic Fragmentation And Commodity Markets
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Author : Mr. Jorge A Alvarez
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-10-03
Geoeconomic Fragmentation And Commodity Markets written by Mr. Jorge A Alvarez and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-10-03 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper studies the economic impact of fragmentation of commodity trade. We assemble a novel dataset of production and bilateral trade flows of the 48 most important energy, mineral and agricultural commodities. We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess which commodity markets are most vulnerable in the event of trade disruptions and the economic risks that they pose. We find that commodity trade fragmentation – which has accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – could cause large price changes and price volatility for many commodities. Mineral markets critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodity markets appear among the most vulnerable in the hypothetical segmentation of the world into two geopolitical blocs examined in the paper. Trade disruptions result in heterogeneous impacts on economic surplus across countries. However, due to offsetting effects across commodity producing and consuming countries, surplus losses appear modest at the global level.
Gulf Cooperation Council Pursuing Visions Amid Geopolitical Turbulence
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-12-19
Gulf Cooperation Council Pursuing Visions Amid Geopolitical Turbulence written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-12-19 with categories.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have successfully weathered recent turbulence in the Middle East, and their economic prospects remain favorable. Nonhydrocarbon activity has been strong amid reform implementation, although overall growth has decelerated due to cuts in oil production. The growth outlook is positive, as the envisaged easing of oil production cuts and natural gas expansion spur the recovery in the hydrocarbon sector, while the nonhydrocarbon economy continues to expand. External buffers remain comfortable despite current account balances having narrowed. Risks around the outlook are broadly balanced in the near term. More challenging medium-term risks, especially in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, call for action on policy priorities to continue to strengthen the private sector and to diversify the economy.
Sleepwalking To The Cliff Edge A Wake Up Call For Global Climate Action
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Author : Mr. Simon Black
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-10-10
Sleepwalking To The Cliff Edge A Wake Up Call For Global Climate Action written by Mr. Simon Black and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-10-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Urgent action to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is needed now. Early next year, all countries will set new emissions targets for 2035 while revising their 2030 targets. Global GHGs must be cut by 25 and 50 percent below 2019 levels by 2030 to limit global warming to 2°C and 1.5°C respectively. But current targets would only cut emissions by 12 percent, meaning global ambition needs to be doubled to quadrupled. Further delay will lead to an ‘emissions cliff edge’, implying implausible cuts in GHGs and putting put 1.5°C beyond reach. This Note provides IMF staff’s annual assessment of global climate mitigation policy. It illustrates options for equitably aligning country targets with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals. It also provides guidance on modelling needed to set emissions targets and quantify climate mitigation policy impacts.
Energy Security And The Green Transition
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Author : Jaden Kim
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-01-12
Energy Security And The Green Transition written by Jaden Kim and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-01-12 with Business & Economics categories.
The current energy crisis has raised important policy questions on how to strengthen short-term energy security while remaining firmly committed to the green transition, a challenge amplified by the recent consensus at COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels. This paper examines the historical determinants of the security of energy supply and analyzes the green transition implications for energy security. Looking back, we find that the diversification of energy trade partners, or the lack thereof, was the main factor that underpinned energy security dynamics within and across countries over the last two decades. Looking ahead, the green transition is expected to have a net positive effect on energy security provided investments are aligned to address new challenges posed by the increased reliance on renewables.
Australia
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-12-23
Australia written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-12-23 with categories.
2024 Selected Issues
Czech Republic
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-02-04
Czech Republic written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-02-04 with Business & Economics categories.
2024 Selected Issues
Embedded In Nature
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Author : Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-10-03
Embedded In Nature written by Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-10-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The economy is embedded in, and dependent on, nature. Yet economic activity is degrading nature at an unprecedented pace. Interacting with climate change, nature loss and transformation generates significant threats to the global economy and financial system. However, work on the implications of nature-related risks for macroeconomic and financial sector policies remains at an early stage. This note seeks to contribute to this emerging policy space in three main ways: (i) it proposes a conceptual framework for understanding nature-related risks by mapping out macroeconomic transmission channels, emphasizing their impact on the economy and financial systems through “double materiality;” (ii) it conducts empirical analysis, finding that nearly 38 percent of bank loans of the 100 largest global banks are to harmful subsidies-dependent sectors and 44 percent are exposed to conservation areas under the Global Biodiversity Framework, and that industries most exposed to nature degradation are not well prepared to manage these risks; and (iii) it discusses takeaways for macroeconomic and financial sector policies and frameworks.
World Economic Situation And Prospects 2025
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Author : United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
language : en
Publisher: Stylus Publishing, LLC
Release Date : 2025-01-22
World Economic Situation And Prospects 2025 written by United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs and has been published by Stylus Publishing, LLC this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-01-22 with categories.
Indonesia
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-08-07
Indonesia written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-08-07 with categories.
Indonesia’s growth remains strong despite external headwinds. Inflation is firmly in the target range and the financial sector is resilient. The authorities have been pursuing an ambitious growth agenda to reach high-income status by 2045. This comprises public spending, institutional reforms, and Industrial Policy (IP). Risks are broadly balanced. Key downside risks include persistent commodity price volatility (e.g., from geopolitical shocks), an abrupt slowdown in Indonesia’s key trading partners, or adverse spillovers from tighter-for-longer global financial conditions. On the domestic side, a weakening of long-standing sound macro-fiscal frameworks could hamper policy credibility. On the upside, stronger-than-anticipated growth in trading partners or faster disinflation in AEs could prop up growth while deep structural reforms would raise growth over the medium term.