Enhancing Strategic Planning With Massive Scenario Generation

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Enhancing Strategic Planning With Massive Scenario Generation

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Author : Paul K. Davis
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2007

Enhancing Strategic Planning With Massive Scenario Generation written by Paul K. Davis and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Technology & Engineering categories.

This report extends research on using scenarios for strategic planning, with experiments in what can be called massive scenario generation (MSG), a computationally intensive technique that seeks to combine virtues of human- and model-based exploration of "the possibility space." The authors measure particular approaches to MSG against four metrics: not needing a good initial model; the dimensionality of the possibility space considered; the degree of exploration of that space; and the quality of resulting knowledge. The authors then describe two MSG experiments for contrasting cases, one that began with a reasonable but untested analytical model, and one that began without an analytical model, but with a thoughtful list of the conditions that might characterize and distinguish among circumstances in the situation considered, a list derived from a combination of single-analyst thinking and group brainstorming. The authors experimented with a variety of methods and tools for interpreting and making sense of the "data" arising from MSG, using ordinary linear sensitivity analysis, a generalization using analyst-inspired aggregation fragments, some advanced filtering methods drawing on data-mining and machine-learning methods, and motivated metamodeling. On the basis of this preliminary work, we conclude that MSG has the potential to expand the scope of what are recognized as possible developments, provide an understanding of how those developments might come about, and help identify aspects of the world that should be studied more carefully, tested, or monitored. It should assist planners by enriching their mental library of the patterns used to guide reasoning and action at the time of crisis or decision and should help them identify anomalous situations requiring unusual actions. Finally, it should identify crucial issues worthy of testing or experimentation in games or other venues and, in some cases, suggest better ways to design mission rehearsals. If MSG can be built into training, education, research, and socialization exercises, it should leave participants with a wider and better sense of the possible, while developing skill at problem-solving in situations other than those of the "best estimate." Much development is needed, but prospects are encouraging.

Anticipating Future Innovation Pathways Through Large Data Analysis

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Author : Tugrul U. Daim
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-07-25

Anticipating Future Innovation Pathways Through Large Data Analysis written by Tugrul U. Daim and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-07-25 with Business & Economics categories.

This book aims to identify promising future developmental opportunities and applications for Tech Mining. Specifically, the enclosed contributions will pursue three converging themes: The increasing availability of electronic text data resources relating to Science, Technology and Innovation (ST&I). The multiple methods that are able to treat this data effectively and incorporate means to tap into human expertise and interests. Translating those analyses to provide useful intelligence on likely future developments of particular emerging S&T targets. Tech Mining can be defined as text analyses of ST&I information resources to generate Competitive Technical Intelligence (CTI). It combines bibliometrics and advanced text analytic, drawing on specialized knowledge pertaining to ST&I. Tech Mining may also be viewed as a special form of “Big Data” analytics because it searches on a target emerging technology (or key organization) of interest in global databases. One then downloads, typically, thousands of field-structured text records (usually abstracts), and analyses those for useful CTI. Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) is a methodology drawing on Tech Mining plus additional steps to elicit stakeholder and expert knowledge to link recent ST&I activity to likely future development. A decade ago, we demeaned Management of Technology (MOT) as somewhat self-satisfied and ignorant. Most technology managers relied overwhelmingly on casual human judgment, largely oblivious of the potential of empirical analyses to inform R&D management and science policy. CTI, Tech Mining, and FIP are changing that. The accumulation of Tech Mining research over the past decade offers a rich resource of means to get at emerging technology developments and organizational networks to date. Efforts to bridge from those recent histories of development to project likely FIP, however, prove considerably harder. One focus of this volume is to extend the repertoire of information resources; that will enrich FIP. Featuring cases of novel approaches and applications of Tech Mining and FIP, this volume will present frontier advances in ST&I text analytics that will be of interest to students, researchers, practitioners, scholars and policy makers in the fields of R&D planning, technology management, science policy and innovation strategy.

Unifying Themes In Complex Systems Ix

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Author : Alfredo J. Morales
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-07-23

Unifying Themes In Complex Systems Ix written by Alfredo J. Morales and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-07-23 with Science categories.

Unifying Themes in Complex Systems is a well-established series of carefully edited conference proceedings that serve to document and archive the progress made regarding cross-fertilization in this field. The International Conference on Complex Systems (ICCS) creates a unique atmosphere for scientists from all fields, engineers, physicians, executives, and a host of other professionals, allowing them to explore common themes and applications of complex systems science. With this new volume, Unifying Themes in Complex Systems continues to establish common ground between the wide-ranging domains of complex systems science.

Analysis Analysis Practices And Implications For Modeling And Simulation

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Author : Paul K. Davis
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2007

Analysis Analysis Practices And Implications For Modeling And Simulation written by Paul K. Davis and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Technology & Engineering categories.

An examination of analysis and analysis practices for defense planning, the paper1s purpose is to delineate priorities for the way ahead, i.e., for investments and other actions to ensure that future models and simulations will serve the needs of decisionmakers. The analysis in question is accomplished for Quadrennial Reviews and for continuing work on capability assessments, requirements analysis, and program analysis.

Computational Red Teaming

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Author : Hussein A. Abbass
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2014-10-30

Computational Red Teaming written by Hussein A. Abbass and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-30 with Technology & Engineering categories.

Written to bridge the information needs of management and computational scientists, this book presents the first comprehensive treatment of Computational Red Teaming (CRT). The author describes an analytics environment that blends human reasoning and computational modeling to design risk-aware and evidence-based smart decision making systems. He presents the Shadow CRT Machine, which shadows the operations of an actual system to think with decision makers, challenge threats, and design remedies. This is the first book to generalize red teaming (RT) outside the military and security domains and it offers coverage of RT principles, practical and ethical guidelines. The author utilizes Gilbert’s principles for introducing a science. Simplicity: where the book follows a special style to make it accessible to a wide range of readers. Coherence: where only necessary elements from experimentation, optimization, simulation, data mining, big data, cognitive information processing, and system thinking are blended together systematically to present CRT as the science of Risk Analytics and Challenge Analytics. Utility: where the author draws on a wide range of examples, ranging from job interviews to Cyber operations, before presenting three case studies from air traffic control technologies, human behavior, and complex socio-technical systems involving real-time mining and integration of human brain data in the decision making environment.

The Sage Handbook Of Complexity And Management

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Author : Peter Allen
language : en
Publisher: SAGE
Release Date : 2011-03-18

The Sage Handbook Of Complexity And Management written by Peter Allen and has been published by SAGE this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-03-18 with Business & Economics categories.

The SAGE Handbook of Complexity and Management is the first substantive scholarly work to provide a map of the state of art research in the growing field emerging at the intersection of complexity science and management studies. Edited and written by internationally respected scholars from management and related disciplines, the Handbook will be the definitive reference source for understanding the implications of complexity science for management research and practice. Part One: Foundations introduces complexity science and its implications for the foundations of scientific knowledge, including management knowledge. Part Two: Applications presents the numerous ways in which complexity science models and tools, as well as complexity thinking, are being applied to management and organizational phenomena and the insights gained as a result. Part Three: Interfaces highlights how complexity science is transforming various non-management fields and, in so doing, creating exciting interfaces for bridging between management and related disciplines.

Social Science For Counterterrorism

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Author : Paul K. Davis
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2009

Social Science For Counterterrorism written by Paul K. Davis and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Political Science categories.

Employs an interdisciplinary, social science approach to various counterterrorism questions, problems, and policies.

Assessing The Societal Implications Of Emerging Technologies

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Author : Evan Michelson
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2016-05-12

Assessing The Societal Implications Of Emerging Technologies written by Evan Michelson and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-05-12 with Business & Economics categories.

A growing problem of interest in the field of science and technology policy is that the next generation of innovations is arriving at an accelerating rate, and the governance system is struggling to catch up. Current approaches and institutions for effective technology assessment are ill suited and poorly designed to proactively address the multidimensional, interconnected societal impacts of science and technology advancements that are already taking place and expected to continue over the course of the 21st century. This book offers tangible insights into the strategies deployed by well-known, high-profile organizations involved in anticipating the various societal and policy implications of nanotechnology and synthetic biology. It focuses predominantly on an examination of the practices adopted by the often-cited and uniquely positioned Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies in the United States, as well as being informed by comparisons with a range of institutions also interested in embedding forward-looking perspectives in their respective area of innovation. The book lays out one of the first actionable roadmaps that other interested stakeholders can follow when working toward institutionalizing anticipatory governance practices throughout the policymaking process.

Advances In Human Factors And Ergonomics 2012 14 Volume Set

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Author : Gavriel Salvendy
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2012-08-06

Advances In Human Factors And Ergonomics 2012 14 Volume Set written by Gavriel Salvendy and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-08-06 with Computers categories.

With contributions from an international group of authors with diverse backgrounds, this set comprises all fourteen volumes of the proceedings of the 4th AHFE Conference 21-25 July 2012. The set presents the latest research on current issues in Human Factors and Ergonomics. It draws from an international panel that examines cross-cultural differences, design issues, usability, road and rail transportation, aviation, modeling and simulation, and healthcare.

Advances In Design For Cross Cultural Activities Part Ii

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Author : Denise M. Nicholson
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2012-07-11

Advances In Design For Cross Cultural Activities Part Ii written by Denise M. Nicholson and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-07-11 with Technology & Engineering categories.

This volume explores decision-making styles, including cooperative, collaborative, avoidant, competitive, and dominate that are commonly modified by the culture. Culture is not a stagnant phenomenon, and many variables need to be considered to accurately evaluation cultural differences in decision-making styles. Among many cultural factors, the ind