Error Growth And Predictability Estimates For The Ecmwf Forecasting System
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Error Growth And Predictability Estimates For The Ecmwf Forecasting System
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Author : Adrian J. Simmons
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994
Error Growth And Predictability Estimates For The Ecmwf Forecasting System written by Adrian J. Simmons and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Numerical weather forecasting categories.
Error Growth And Predictability Estimates For The Ecmwf Forecasting System By A J Simmons R Mureau And T Petroliagis European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasts
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Author : Adrian J. Simmons
language : de
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994
Error Growth And Predictability Estimates For The Ecmwf Forecasting System By A J Simmons R Mureau And T Petroliagis European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasts written by Adrian J. Simmons and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with categories.
Predictability Of Weather And Climate
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Author : Tim Palmer
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2006-07-27
Predictability Of Weather And Climate written by Tim Palmer and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-07-27 with Science categories.
With contributions by leading experts, including an unpublished paper by Ed Lorenz, this book, first published in 2006, covers many topics in weather and climate predictability. It will interest those in the fields of environmental science and weather and climate forecasting, from graduate students to researchers, by examining theoretical and practical aspects of predictability.
Error Growth In Poor Ecmwf Forecasts Over The Contiguous United States
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Author : Norman Ray Modlin
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1993
Error Growth In Poor Ecmwf Forecasts Over The Contiguous United States written by Norman Ray Modlin and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Weather forecasting categories.
The Ecmwf Ensemble Prediction System
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Author : Franco Molteni
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1996
The Ecmwf Ensemble Prediction System written by Franco Molteni and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996 with Probability forecasts (Meteorology) categories.
"The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is described. In addition to an unperturbed (control) forecast, each ensemble comprises 32 10-day forecasts starting from initial conditions in which dynamically defined perturbations have been added to the operational analysis. The perturbations are constructed from singular vectors of a time-evolution operator linearized around the short-range- forecast trajectory. These singular vectors approximately determine the most unstable phase-space directions in the early part of the forecast period, and are estimated using a forward and adjoint linear version of the ECMWF numerical weather-prediction model. An appropriate norm is chosen, and relationships between the structures of these singular vectors at initial time and patterns showing the sensitivity of short-range forecast error to changes in the analysis are discussed. A methodology to perform a phase-space rotation of the singular vectors is described, which generates hemispheric-wide perturbations and renormalizes them according to analysis-error estimates from the data-assimilation system. The validation of the ensembles is given firstly in terms of scatter diagrams and contingency tables of ensemble spread and control-forecast skill. The contingency tables are compared with those from a perfect-model ensemble system; no significant differences are found in some cases. Brier scores for the probability of European flow clusters are presented, which indicate predictive skill up to forecast-day 8 with respect to climatological probabilities. The dependence of these scores on flow-dependent model errors is also discussed. Finally, ensemble-member skill- score distributions are presented, which confirm the overall satisfactory perfomance of the EPS, particularly in summer and autumn 1993. In winter, cases of poor performance over Europe were associated with the occurrence of a split westerly flow with a blocking high and/or a cut-off low in the verifying analysis. Two cases are studied in detail, one having large ensemble dispersion, the other corresponding to a more predictable situation. The case studies are used to illustrate the range of ensemble products routinely disseminated to ECMWF Member States. These products include clusters of flow types, and probability fields of weather elements.
Interpretation Of Numerical Weather Prediction Products
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1983
Interpretation Of Numerical Weather Prediction Products written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1983 with Numerical weather forecasting categories.
Medium Range Weather Forecasts
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1985
Medium Range Weather Forecasts written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1985 with Europe categories.
Assessment Of Intraseasonal To Interannual Climate Prediction And Predictability
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2010-10-08
Assessment Of Intraseasonal To Interannual Climate Prediction And Predictability written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10-08 with Science categories.
More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Uncertainties In Numerical Weather Prediction
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Author : Haraldur Olafsson
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2020-11-25
Uncertainties In Numerical Weather Prediction written by Haraldur Olafsson and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-11-25 with Computers categories.
Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction is a comprehensive work on the most current understandings of uncertainties and predictability in numerical simulations of the atmosphere. It provides general knowledge on all aspects of uncertainties in the weather prediction models in a single, easy to use reference. The book illustrates particular uncertainties in observations and data assimilation, as well as the errors associated with numerical integration methods. Stochastic methods in parameterization of subgrid processes are also assessed, as are uncertainties associated with surface-atmosphere exchange, orographic flows and processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. Through a better understanding of the uncertainties to watch for, readers will be able to produce more precise and accurate forecasts. This is an essential work for anyone who wants to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting and interested parties developing tools to enhance the quality of such forecasts. Provides a comprehensive overview of the state of numerical weather prediction at spatial scales, from hundreds of meters, to thousands of kilometers Focuses on short-term 1-15 day atmospheric predictions, with some coverage appropriate for longer-term forecasts Includes references to climate prediction models to allow applications of these techniques for climate simulations
Nostradamus 2014 Prediction Modeling And Analysis Of Complex Systems
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Author : Ivan Zelinka
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2014-06-09
Nostradamus 2014 Prediction Modeling And Analysis Of Complex Systems written by Ivan Zelinka and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-09 with Technology & Engineering categories.
The prediction of behavior of complex systems, analysis and modeling of its structure is a vitally important problem in engineering, economy and generally in science today. Examples of such systems can be seen in the world around us (including our bodies) and of course in almost every scientific discipline including such “exotic” domains as the earth’s atmosphere, turbulent fluids, economics (exchange rate and stock markets), population growth, physics (control of plasma), information flow in social networks and its dynamics, chemistry and complex networks. To understand such complex dynamics, which often exhibit strange behavior, and to use it in research or industrial applications, it is paramount to create its models. For this purpose there exists a rich spectrum of methods, from classical such as ARMA models or Box Jenkins method to modern ones like evolutionary computation, neural networks, fuzzy logic, geometry, deterministic chaos amongst others. This proceedings book is a collection of accepted papers of the Nostradamus conference that has been held in Ostrava, Czech Republic in June 2014. This book also includes outstanding keynote lectures by distinguished guest speakers: René Lozi (France), Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam Suganthan (Singapore) and Lars Nolle (Germany). The main aim of the conference was to create a periodical possibility for students, academics and researchers to exchange their ideas and novel research methods. This conference establishes a forum for presentation and discussion of recent research trends in the area of applications of various predictive methods.