Uncertainties In Numerical Weather Prediction
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Uncertainties In Numerical Weather Prediction
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Author : Haraldur Olafsson
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2020-11-25
Uncertainties In Numerical Weather Prediction written by Haraldur Olafsson and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-11-25 with Science categories.
Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction is a comprehensive work on the most current understandings of uncertainties and predictability in numerical simulations of the atmosphere. It provides general knowledge on all aspects of uncertainties in the weather prediction models in a single, easy to use reference. The book illustrates particular uncertainties in observations and data assimilation, as well as the errors associated with numerical integration methods. Stochastic methods in parameterization of subgrid processes are also assessed, as are uncertainties associated with surface-atmosphere exchange, orographic flows and processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. Through a better understanding of the uncertainties to watch for, readers will be able to produce more precise and accurate forecasts. This is an essential work for anyone who wants to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting and interested parties developing tools to enhance the quality of such forecasts. - Provides a comprehensive overview of the state of numerical weather prediction at spatial scales, from hundreds of meters, to thousands of kilometers - Focuses on short-term 1-15 day atmospheric predictions, with some coverage appropriate for longer-term forecasts - Includes references to climate prediction models to allow applications of these techniques for climate simulations
Numerical Weather And Climate Prediction
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Author : Thomas Tomkins Warner
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2010-12-02
Numerical Weather And Climate Prediction written by Thomas Tomkins Warner and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-12-02 with Science categories.
This textbook provides a comprehensive yet accessible treatment of weather and climate prediction, for graduate students, researchers and professionals. It teaches the strengths, weaknesses and best practices for the use of atmospheric models. It is ideal for the many scientists who use such models across a wide variety of applications. The book describes the different numerical methods, data assimilation, ensemble methods, predictability, land-surface modeling, climate modeling and downscaling, computational fluid-dynamics models, experimental designs in model-based research, verification methods, operational prediction, and special applications such as air-quality modeling and flood prediction. This volume will satisfy everyone who needs to know about atmospheric modeling for use in research or operations. It is ideal both as a textbook for a course on weather and climate prediction and as a reference text for researchers and professionals from a range of backgrounds: atmospheric science, meteorology, climatology, environmental science, geography, and geophysical fluid mechanics/dynamics.
Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment
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Author : Karin Riley
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2016-11-15
Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment written by Karin Riley and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-15 with Science categories.
Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction
Mathematical Problems In Meteorological Modelling
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Author : András Bátkai
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-11-08
Mathematical Problems In Meteorological Modelling written by András Bátkai and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-08 with Mathematics categories.
This book deals with mathematical problems arising in the context of meteorological modelling. It gathers and presents some of the most interesting and important issues from the interaction of mathematics and meteorology. It is unique in that it features contributions on topics like data assimilation, ensemble prediction, numerical methods, and transport modelling, from both mathematical and meteorological perspectives. The derivation and solution of all kinds of numerical prediction models require the application of results from various mathematical fields. The present volume is divided into three parts, moving from mathematical and numerical problems through air quality modelling, to advanced applications in data assimilation and probabilistic forecasting. The book arose from the workshop “Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling” held in Budapest in May 2014 and organized by the ECMI Special Interest Group on Numerical Weather Prediction. Its main objective is to highlight the beauty of the development fields discussed, to demonstrate their mathematical complexity and, more importantly, to encourage mathematicians to contribute to the further success of such practical applications as weather forecasting and climate change projections. Written by leading experts in the field, the book provides an attractive and diverse introduction to areas in which mathematicians and modellers from the meteorological community can cooperate and help each other solve the problems that operational weather centres face, now and in the near future. Readers engaged in meteorological research will become more familiar with the corresponding mathematical background, while mathematicians working in numerical analysis, partial differential equations, or stochastic analysis will be introduced to further application fields of their research area, and will find stimulation and motivation for their future research work.
Sensitivity And Uncertainty Analysis Volume Ii
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Author : Dan G. Cacuci
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2005-05-16
Sensitivity And Uncertainty Analysis Volume Ii written by Dan G. Cacuci and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-05-16 with Mathematics categories.
As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative convective model for climate simulations, and large-scale models for numerical weather prediction.
Proceedings Of The 5th International Symposium On Uncertainty Quantification And Stochastic Modelling
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Author : José Eduardo Souza De Cursi
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-08-19
Proceedings Of The 5th International Symposium On Uncertainty Quantification And Stochastic Modelling written by José Eduardo Souza De Cursi and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-08-19 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This proceedings book discusses state-of-the-art research on uncertainty quantification in mechanical engineering, including statistical data concerning the entries and parameters of a system to produce statistical data on the outputs of the system. It is based on papers presented at Uncertainties 2020, a workshop organized on behalf of the Scientific Committee on Uncertainty in Mechanics (Mécanique et Incertain) of the AFM (French Society of Mechanical Sciences), the Scientific Committee on Stochastic Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification of the ABCM (Brazilian Society of Mechanical Sciences) and the SBMAC (Brazilian Society of Applied Mathematics).
Completing The Forecast
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2006-10-09
Completing The Forecast written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-10-09 with Science categories.
Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Uncertainty Quantification
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Author : Ralph C. Smith
language : en
Publisher: SIAM
Release Date : 2013-12-02
Uncertainty Quantification written by Ralph C. Smith and has been published by SIAM this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-02 with Science categories.
The field of uncertainty quantification is evolving rapidly because of increasing emphasis on models that require quantified uncertainties for large-scale applications, novel algorithm development, and new computational architectures that facilitate implementation of these algorithms. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications provides readers with the basic concepts, theory, and algorithms necessary to quantify input and response uncertainties for simulation models arising in a broad range of disciplines. The book begins with a detailed discussion of applications where uncertainty quantification is critical for both scientific understanding and policy. It then covers concepts from probability and statistics, parameter selection techniques, frequentist and Bayesian model calibration, propagation of uncertainties, quantification of model discrepancy, surrogate model construction, and local and global sensitivity analysis. The author maintains a complementary web page where readers can find data used in the exercises and other supplementary material.
Meteorology At The Millennium
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Author : Robert P. Pearce
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2005-02-22
Meteorology At The Millennium written by Robert P. Pearce and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-02-22 with Science categories.
Meteorology at the Millennium details recent advances in meteorology and explores its interfaces with science, technology, and society. Ways in which modern meteorology is contributing to the developments in other sciences are described, as well as how atmospheric scientists are learning from colleagues in related disciplines.Meteorology at the Millennium will serve as a point of reference for students and researchers of meteorology and climatology for many years to come.The areas covered include weather prediction at the millennium, climate variability and change, atmosphere-ocean coupling, the biogeochemical system, weather on other planets.This book is a compilation of the best invited papers presented at a conference celebrating the 150 years of the Royal Meteorological Society (RMS).
Risk And Uncertainty Assessment For Natural Hazards
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Author : Jonathan Rougier
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2013-02-21
Risk And Uncertainty Assessment For Natural Hazards written by Jonathan Rougier and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-02-21 with Nature categories.
A state-of-the-art overview of natural hazard risk assessment, for researchers and professionals in natural-hazard science, risk management and environmental science.