Essays On Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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Essays On Economic Decisions Under Uncertainty
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Author : Jacques Drèze
language : en
Publisher: CUP Archive
Release Date : 1990-05-25
Essays On Economic Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Jacques Drèze and has been published by CUP Archive this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990-05-25 with Business & Economics categories.
Professor Dreze is a highly respected mathematical economist and econometrician. This book brings together some of his major contributions to the economic theory of decision making under uncertainty, and also several essays. These include an important essay on 'Decision theory under moral hazard and state dependent preferences' that significantly extends modern theory, and which provides rigorous foundations for subsequent chapters. Topics covered within the theory include decision theory, market allocation and prices, consumer decisions, theory of the firm, labour contracts, and public decisions.
Essays On Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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Author : Di Wang
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Essays On Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Di Wang and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
Social And Economic Factors In Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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Author : Kinga Posadzy
language : en
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
Release Date : 2017-11-16
Social And Economic Factors In Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Kinga Posadzy and has been published by Linköping University Electronic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-16 with categories.
The objective of this thesis is to improve the understanding of human behavior that goes beyond monetary rewards. In particular, it investigates social influences in individual’s decision making in situations that involve coordination, competition, and deciding for others. Further, it compares how monetary and social outcomes are perceived. The common theme of all studies is uncertainty. The first four essays study individual decisions that have uncertain consequences, be it due to the actions of others or chance. The last essay, in turn, uses the advances in research on decision making under uncertainty to predict behavior in riskless choices. The first essay, Fairness Versus Efficiency: How Procedural Fairness Concerns Affect Coordination, investigates whether preferences for fair rules undermine the efficiency of coordination mechanisms that put some individuals at a disadvantage. The results from a laboratory experiment show that the existence of coordination mechanisms, such as action recommendations, increases efficiency, even if one party is strongly disadvantaged by the mechanism. Further, it is demonstrated that while individuals’ behavior does not depend on the fairness of the coordination mechanism, their beliefs about people’s behavior do. The second essay, Dishonesty and Competition. Evidence from a stiff competition environment, explores whether and how the possibility to behave dishonestly affects the willingness to compete and who the winner is in a competition between similarly skilled individuals. We do not find differences in competition entry between competitions in which dishonesty is possible and in which it is not. However, we find that due to the heterogeneity in propensity to behave dishonestly, around 20% of winners are not the best-performing individuals. This implies that the efficient allocation of resources cannot be ensured in a stiff competition in which behavior is unmonitored. The third essay, Tracing Risky Decision Making for Oneself and Others: The Role of Intuition and Deliberation, explores how individuals make choices under risk for themselves and on behalf of other people. The findings demonstrate that while there are no differences in preferences for taking risks when deciding for oneself and for others, individuals have greater decision error when choosing for other individuals. The differences in the decision error can be partly attributed to the differences in information processing; individuals employ more deliberative cognitive processing when deciding for themselves than when deciding for others. Conducting more information processing when deciding for others is related to the reduction in decision error. The fourth essay, The Effect of Decision Fatigue on Surgeons’ Clinical Decision Making, investigates how mental depletion, caused by a long session of decision making, affects surgeon’s decision to operate. Exploiting a natural experiment, we find that surgeons are less likely to schedule an operation for patients who have appointment late during the work shift than for patients who have appointment at the beginning of the work shift. Understanding how the quality of medical decisions depends on when the patient is seen is important for achieving both efficiency and fairness in health care, where long shifts are popular. The fifth essay, Preferences for Outcome Editing in Monetary and Social Contexts, compares whether individuals use the same rules for mental representation of monetary outcomes (e.g., purchases, expenses) as for social outcomes (e.g., having nice time with friends). Outcome editing is an operation in mental accounting that determines whether individuals prefer to first combine multiple outcomes before their evaluation (integration) or evaluate each outcome separately (segregation). I find that the majority of individuals express different preferences for outcome editing in the monetary context than in the social context. Further, while the results on the editing of monetary outcomes are consistent with theoretical predictions, no existing model can explain the editing of social outcomes.
Financial Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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Author : ANDERSON ANDERSON WEBSTER
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2014-06-28
Financial Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by ANDERSON ANDERSON WEBSTER and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Financial Dec Making under Uncertainty
Essays On Individual Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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Author : Elise Le Nestour
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Essays On Individual Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Elise Le Nestour and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
Decision Making Process
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Author : Denis Bouyssou
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2013-05-10
Decision Making Process written by Denis Bouyssou and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-05-10 with Business & Economics categories.
This book provides an overview of the main methods and results in the formal study of the human decision-making process, as defined in a relatively wide sense. A key aim of the approach contained here is to try to break down barriers between various disciplines encompassed by this field, including psychology, economics and computer science. All these approaches have contributed to progress in this very important and much-studied topic in the past, but none have proved sufficient so far to define a complete understanding of the highly complex processes and outcomes. This book provides the reader with state-of-the-art coverage of the field, essentially forming a roadmap to the field of decision analysis. The first part of the book is devoted to basic concepts and techniques for representing and solving decision problems, ranging from operational research to artificial intelligence. Later chapters provide an extensive overview of the decision-making process under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Finally, there are chapters covering various approaches to multi-criteria decision-making. Each chapter is written by experts in the topic concerned, and contains an extensive bibliography for further reading and reference.
Judgment Under Uncertainty
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Author : Daniel Kahneman
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1982-04-30
Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1982-04-30 with Psychology categories.
Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.
Foundations And Applications Of Decision Theory
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Author : C.A. Hooker
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Foundations And Applications Of Decision Theory written by C.A. Hooker and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Science categories.
1. INTRODUCTION In the Spring of 1975 we held an international workshop on the Foundations and Application of Decision Theory at the University of Western Ontario. To help structure the workshop into ordered and manageable sessions we distri buted the following statement of our goals to all invited participants. They in turn responded with useful revisions and suggested their own areas of interest. Since this procedure provided the eventual format of the sessions, we include it here as the most appropriate introduction to these collected papers result ing from the workshop. The reader can readily gauge the approximation to our mutual goals. 2. STATEMENT or OBJECTIVES AND RATIONALE (Attached to this statement is a bibliography; names of persons cited in the statement and writing in this century will be found referenced in the biblio graphy - certain 'classics' aside. ) 2. 1. Preamble We understand in the following the Theory of Decisions in a broader sense than is presently customary, construing it to embrace a general theory of deciSion-making, induding social, political and economic theory and applica tions. Thus, we subsume the Theory of Games under the head of Decision Theory, regarding it as a particularly clearly formulated version of part of the general theory of decision-making.
Radical Uncertainty Decision Making Beyond The Numbers
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Author : John Kay
language : en
Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company
Release Date : 2020-03-17
Radical Uncertainty Decision Making Beyond The Numbers written by John Kay and has been published by W. W. Norton & Company this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-03-17 with Business & Economics categories.
Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
The Emergence Of A Tradition Essays In Honor Of Jes S Huerta De Soto Volume Ii
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Author : David Howden
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2023-04-19
The Emergence Of A Tradition Essays In Honor Of Jes S Huerta De Soto Volume Ii written by David Howden and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-04-19 with Political Science categories.
This book, the second of two volumes, explores the impact of Jesús Huerta de Soto and his role in the modern revival of the Austrian School of Economics. Through chapters discussing philosophy and political economy, the nature of capitalism and the foundations of economics are examined in relation to Austrian economics. These ideas and the work of Huerta de Soto are also contextualized within the broader history of economic thought to provide insight into their influence and development. This book highlights and builds upon the intellectual legacy of Jesús Huerta de Soto through its contribution to the Austrian School of Economics. It will be relevant to students and researchers interested in Austrian economics, philosophy, and political economy.