Essays On External Shocks And Monetary Policy In The Sri Lankan Economy
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Essays On External Shocks And Monetary Policy In The Sri Lankan Economy
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Author : Yashodha Warunie Senadheera Senadheera Pathirannehelage
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Essays On External Shocks And Monetary Policy In The Sri Lankan Economy written by Yashodha Warunie Senadheera Senadheera Pathirannehelage and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
The past few decades have been marked with episodes of global economic turbulence that have created macroeconomic instability in both developed and developing economies. With its gradual economic integration with global markets, Sri Lanka is increasingly exposed to unanticipated shocks emanating from foreign economies. This dissertation, comprising of three independent essays, aims to deepen the knowledge on the effects of external shocks, their cross-border transmission channels and appropriate monetary policy responses for the Sri Lankan economy. External shocks transmitted through trade and financial market linkages have a considerable welfare effect on small open economies such as Sri Lanka. The monetary policy regime of a country plays a vital role in minimizing the social welfare losses arising from external shocks. The first essay of this thesis (Chapter 2) investigates the welfare implications of six alternative monetary policy rules for the Sri Lankan economy using a calibrated DSGE model with nominal rigidities, delayed exchange rate pass-through and financial frictions. The model is solved numerically by taking second-order approximation of the full set of model equations. Domestic goods inflation targeting rule minimizes the welfare losses caused by foreign interest rate and foreign output shocks. Social welfare is lowest under the strict exchange rate targeting rule when the economy is affected by external shocks. This essay demonstrates the importance of taking second-order approximations of the full set of model equations in welfare analysis. The second essay of this dissertation (Chapter 3) empirically investigates the effects of external shocks on the Sri Lankan economy using a Structural Vector Auto-Regression (SVAR) model with a block exogeneity assumption and long-run and short-run restrictions. This essay examines the impact of foreign monetary policy shocks on the domestic economy using alternative measures: the effective federal funds rate and the US shadow short rate. Although domestic shocks are the primary source of macroeconomic fluctuations in Sri Lanka, foreign shocks also play a considerable role in explaining the variability in output growth and domestic inflation. Shocks to foreign output growth and oil price inflation have a notable effect on the growth of domestic output. Shocks to the effective federal funds rate explain the variance of Sri Lanka's output growth better than the shocks to the US shadow short rate. Further, the impacts of oil price inflation and the effective federal funds rate shocks on domestic inflation are noteworthy. The foreign shocks are transmitted to the domestic economy through the trade channel as well as through the financial market channel. The deteriorating terms of trade in the past two decades has been a concern for the policy-makers of Sri Lanka. The recent literature has argued that the effect of the terms of trade shocks on an economy depends on the characteristics of the underlying shock. Using a sign restricted VAR model, the third essay (Chapter 4) examines the effect on the Sri Lankan economy of external shocks that cause terms of trade fluctuations. Three external shocks, viz., world demand shocks, world supply shocks and globalization shocks are considered in this study. The world demand shocks do not have a significant long-term effect on Sri Lanka's real output, but the negative world supply shocks are contractionary. Conversely, positive globalization shocks increase domestic output permanently. Both positive world demand shocks and globalization shocks are inflationary while negative world supply shocks increase domestic prices initially but reduce the prices after two quarters. World demand shocks have largely contributed to the fluctuations in trade balance in Sri Lanka since 2007, whereas the importance of globalization shocks on the imports, exports and trade balance has increased since 2010. Contribution from globalization shocks to the variance in domestic output and price levels has increased since 2007.
How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy
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Author : Mr.Serhat Solmaz
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-12-23
How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy written by Mr.Serhat Solmaz and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-23 with Business & Economics categories.
External headwinds, together with domestic vulnerabilities, have loomed over the prospects of emerging markets in recent years. We propose an empirical toolbox to quantify the impact of external macro-financial shocks on domestic economies in parsimonious way. Our model is a Bayesian VAR consisting of two blocks representing home and foreign factors, which is particularly useful for small open economies. By exploiting the mixed-frequency nature of the model, we show how the toolbox can be used for “nowcasting” the output growth. The conditional forecast results illustrate that regular updates of external information, as well as domestic leading indicators, would significantly enhance the accuracy of forecasts. Moreover, the analysis of variance decompositions shows that external shocks are important drivers of the domestic business cycle.
Global Waves Of Debt
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Author : M. Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-03-03
Global Waves Of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Effectiveness Of Central Banks And Their Role In The Global Financial Crisis
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Author : Shamshad Akhtar
language : en
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
Release Date : 2009-12-01
Effectiveness Of Central Banks And Their Role In The Global Financial Crisis written by Shamshad Akhtar and has been published by Asian Development Bank this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This study examines the role and performance of central banks in low-income countries that have faced a range of domestic and external fragilities, aggravated by the global financial crisis that started in the United States and other advanced economies. It focuses on a select group of developing member countries of the Asian Development Bank in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and South Asia that have been and will continue to be vulnerable to adverse external developments.
The Sri Lankan Economy
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Author : Prema-chandra Athukorala
language : en
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
Release Date : 2017-10-01
The Sri Lankan Economy written by Prema-chandra Athukorala and has been published by Asian Development Bank this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-10-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This is a pivotal period in Sri Lanka's economic development. The end of conflict opens a door for accelerated economic growth and poverty reduction. Reform is needed to regain momentum because fiscal imbalances and rising public debt could jeopardize macroeconomic stability. The economy would benefit from significant trade and commercial policy reform. The labor market suffers from sluggish growth of formal sector employment and from skills mismatches, which can be addressed by changes in education policy and systems. The book analyzes these and related critical constraints on the Sri Lankan economy, and proposes a set of policy reforms that would lay the foundations for more rapid and inclusive development.
Monetary And Currency Policy Management In Asia
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Author : Masahiro Kawai
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2012-01-01
Monetary And Currency Policy Management In Asia written by Masahiro Kawai and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Asian economies strengthened their monetary and currency management after the Asian financial crisis of 19971998, and came through the global financial crisis of 20072009 relatively well. Nevertheless, the recent global crisis has presented new challenges. This book develops recommendations for monetary and currency policy in Asian economies aimed at promoting macroeconomic and financial stability in an environment of global economic shocks and volatile capital flows. Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia draws lessons from crises and makes concrete macroeconomic policy recommendations aimed at minimizing the impacts of an economic and financial downturn, and setting the stage for an early return to sustainable growth. The focus is on short-term measures related to the cycle. The three main areas addressed are: monetary policy measures, both conventional and unconventional, to achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability; exchange rate policy and foreign exchange reserve management, including the potential for regional cooperation to stabilize currency movements; and ways to ease the constraints on policy resulting from the so-called 'impossible trinity' of fixed exchange rates, open capital accounts and independent monetary policy. This is one of the first books since the global financial crisis to specifically and comprehensively address the implications of the crisis for monetary and currency policy in emerging market economies, especially in Asia. Presenting a broad menu of policy options for financial reform and regulation, the book will be of great interest to finance experts and policymakers in the region as well as academics and researchers of financial and Asian economics as well as economic development.
Financial Crises Explanations Types And Implications
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Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-01-30
Financial Crises Explanations Types And Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-30 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In Stimulating Economic Activity
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Author : Richard Hemming
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2002-12
The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In Stimulating Economic Activity written by Richard Hemming and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Monetary Policy Capital Flows And Exchange Rates
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Author : William Allen
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2004-03-18
Monetary Policy Capital Flows And Exchange Rates written by William Allen and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-03-18 with Business & Economics categories.
Maxwell Fry was known internationally for his research into international and domestic financial issues. This book constitutes a tribute to his pioneering work in so many areas, and draws together contributions from a range of academic and policy-making colleagues who were fortunate enough to experience the depth of knowledge and insights which Maxwell demonstrated.
Coordination Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1998-03-01
Coordination Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.