How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy
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How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy
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Author : Mr.Serhat Solmaz
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-12-23
How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy written by Mr.Serhat Solmaz and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-23 with Business & Economics categories.
External headwinds, together with domestic vulnerabilities, have loomed over the prospects of emerging markets in recent years. We propose an empirical toolbox to quantify the impact of external macro-financial shocks on domestic economies in parsimonious way. Our model is a Bayesian VAR consisting of two blocks representing home and foreign factors, which is particularly useful for small open economies. By exploiting the mixed-frequency nature of the model, we show how the toolbox can be used for “nowcasting” the output growth. The conditional forecast results illustrate that regular updates of external information, as well as domestic leading indicators, would significantly enhance the accuracy of forecasts. Moreover, the analysis of variance decompositions shows that external shocks are important drivers of the domestic business cycle.
The Role Of Domestic And External Shocks In Poland
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Author : Michal Andrle
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-10-29
The Role Of Domestic And External Shocks In Poland written by Michal Andrle and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-29 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper discusses interlinkages between Poland and the euro zone using a simple and agnostic econometric approach. Specifically, we estimate a trend-cycle VAR model using data for real and nominal variables, imposing powerful but uncontroversial assumptions that allow us to identify how external factors affect the evolution of business cycles in Poland in the period 1999-2012. Our results suggest that developments in the euro zone can explain about 50 percent of poland’s output and interest rate business cycle variance and about 25 percent of the variance of inflation.
External Linkages And Economic Growth In Colombia Insights From A Bayesian Var Model
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Author : Lisandro Abrego
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2008
External Linkages And Economic Growth In Colombia Insights From A Bayesian Var Model written by Lisandro Abrego and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper investigates the sensitivity of Colombian GDP growth to the surroundingmacroeconomic environment. We estimate a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-statepriors for the Colombian economy using quarterly data from 1995 to 2007. A variancedecomposition shows that world GDP growth and government spending are the most importantfactors, explaining roughly 17 and 16 percent of the variance in Colombian GDP growthrespectively. The model, which is shown to forecast well out-of-sample, can also be used toanalyse alternative scenarios. Generating both endogenous and conditional forecasts, we showthat the impact on Colombian GDP growth of a substantial downturn in world GDP growthwould be non-negligible but still a mild decline by historical standards.
Emerging Market Volatility
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Author : Ms.Ratna Sahay
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-10-02
Emerging Market Volatility written by Ms.Ratna Sahay and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed. This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.
Capital Inflows And Real Exchange Rate Appreciation In Latin America
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Author : Guillermo A. Calvo
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1992
Capital Inflows And Real Exchange Rate Appreciation In Latin America written by Guillermo A. Calvo and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992 with Capital movements categories.
Assessing The Impact Of Policy Changes On A Nowcast
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Author : Mr. Sam Ouliaris
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-07-28
Assessing The Impact Of Policy Changes On A Nowcast written by Mr. Sam Ouliaris and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-07-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Nowcasting enables policymakers to obtain forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators using higher frequency data, resulting in more timely information to guide proposed policy changes. A significant shortcoming of nowcasting estimators is their “reduced-form” nature, which means they cannot be used to assess the impact of policy changes, for example, on the baseline nowcast of real GDP. This paper outlines two separate methodologies to address this problem. The first is a partial equilibrium approach that uses an existing baseline nowcasting regression and single-equation forecasting models for the high-frequency data in that regression. The second approach uses a non-parametric structural VAR estimator recently introduced in Ouliaris and Pagan (2022) that imposes minimal identifying restrictions on the data to estimate the impact of structural shocks. Each approach is illustrated using a country-specific example.
Handbook Of Research On Institutional Economic And Social Impacts Of Globalization And Liberalization
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Author : Bayar, Yilmaz
language : en
Publisher: IGI Global
Release Date : 2020-11-06
Handbook Of Research On Institutional Economic And Social Impacts Of Globalization And Liberalization written by Bayar, Yilmaz and has been published by IGI Global this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-11-06 with Political Science categories.
Globalization is a multi-dimensional concept reflecting the increased economic, social, cultural, and political integration of countries. There has been no pinpointed consensus on the history of globalization; however, the globalization process has gained significant speed as of the 1980s in combination with liberalization. Many countries have removed or loosened barriers over the international flows of goods, services, and production factors. In this context, both liberalization and globalization have led to considerable institutional, economic, social, cultural, and political changes in the world. The liberalization and globalization processes have affected economic units, institutions, cultures, social lives, and national and international politics. The Handbook of Research on Institutional, Economic, and Social Impacts of Globalization and Liberalization provides a comprehensive evaluation of the institutional, economic, and social impacts of globalization and liberalization processes across the world. While highlighting topics like economics, finance, business, and public administration, this book is ideally intended for government officials, policymakers, practitioners, stakeholders, researchers, and academicians interested in the international impacts of globalization and liberalization across a variety of different domains.
African Voices On Structural Adjustment
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Author : Codesria
language : en
Publisher: IDRC
Release Date : 2003
African Voices On Structural Adjustment written by Codesria and has been published by IDRC this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Business & Economics categories.
African Voices on Structural Adjustment presents 14 in-depth studies on the history and future of structural adjustment in Africa. Each study appraises the performance of structural adjustment policies (SAPs) with respect to a particular sector or issue. Each evaluates the compatibility of SAPs with the requirements for long-term development in Africa. And, most importantly, each presents a truly African perspective. The contributors represent an outstanding collection of leading African economists and development experts. This volume is intended as a companion to Our Continent, Our Future. It will appeal to students, professors, academics, and researchers in development, economics, and African studies; professionals in donor organizations around the world; and economic policymakers in both the governmental and non-governmental sectors
The Balance Of Payments Adjustment Process In Developing Countries
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Author : Sidney Dell
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2013-09-11
The Balance Of Payments Adjustment Process In Developing Countries written by Sidney Dell and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-09-11 with Business & Economics categories.
The Balance of Payments Adjustment Process in Developing Countries deals with the manner in which the burden of adjustment to balance of payments disequilibrium in the 1970s was distributed between developed and developing countries. The book discusses the evidence on changes in the volume of trade; the evidence on price changes and their effects on the accounts of various groups of countries; and the general considerations regarding the character of the deficits of developing countries. The text also describes the mechanisms through which external disturbances are transmitted to the domestic economy, as well as certain questions relating to the financing of the deficits of developing countries. The changes in the world economy; the ways in which changes in the world economy affected the external accounts of the countries; and the effects of changes in the external accounts on developments in the domestic economy are also considered. The book further tackles the policy measures adopted to counter the deterioration in external balance and in growth performance and prospects; as well as the main issues that arise in the course of the adjustment process, at both national and international levels.
Doing Business In Emerging Markets
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Author : S. Tamer Cavusgil
language : en
Publisher: SAGE
Release Date : 2002
Doing Business In Emerging Markets written by S. Tamer Cavusgil and has been published by SAGE this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with Business & Economics categories.
Doing Business in Emerging Markets: Entry and Negotiation Strategies is an authoritative and timely guide for executives who are contemplating business in these markets. Including numerous exhibits and real-world examples, the authors explore analysis and evaluation of market potential, management of the negotiation process, and the recognition of important regional business styles and cultural issues. Students and professors in MBA or Ph.D. programs in international management, marketing, and strategy will also find this an invaluable aid to understanding emerging markets.