Assessing The Impact Of Policy Changes On A Nowcast

DOWNLOAD
READ ONLINE

Download Assessing The Impact Of Policy Changes On A Nowcast PDF/ePub or read online books in Mobi eBooks. Click Download or Read Online button to get Assessing The Impact Of Policy Changes On A Nowcast book now. This website allows unlimited access to, at the time of writing, more than 1.5 million titles, including hundreds of thousands of titles in various foreign languages. If the content not found or just blank you must refresh this page

Assessing The Impact Of Policy Changes On A Nowcast

DOWNLOAD
READ ONLINE

Author : Mr. Sam Ouliaris
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-07-28

Assessing The Impact Of Policy Changes On A Nowcast written by Mr. Sam Ouliaris and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-07-28 with Business & Economics categories.

Nowcasting enables policymakers to obtain forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators using higher frequency data, resulting in more timely information to guide proposed policy changes. A significant shortcoming of nowcasting estimators is their “reduced-form” nature, which means they cannot be used to assess the impact of policy changes, for example, on the baseline nowcast of real GDP. This paper outlines two separate methodologies to address this problem. The first is a partial equilibrium approach that uses an existing baseline nowcasting regression and single-equation forecasting models for the high-frequency data in that regression. The second approach uses a non-parametric structural VAR estimator recently introduced in Ouliaris and Pagan (2022) that imposes minimal identifying restrictions on the data to estimate the impact of structural shocks. Each approach is illustrated using a country-specific example.

Politics And Big Data

DOWNLOAD
READ ONLINE

Author : Andrea Ceron
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2016-12-19

Politics And Big Data written by Andrea Ceron and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-12-19 with Political Science categories.

The importance of social media as a way to monitor an electoral campaign is well established. Day-by-day, hour-by-hour evaluation of the evolution of online ideas and opinion allows observers and scholars to monitor trends and momentum in public opinion well before traditional polls. However, there are difficulties in recording and analyzing often brief, unverified comments while the unequal age, gender, social and racial representation among social media users can produce inaccurate forecasts of final polls. Reviewing the different techniques employed using social media to nowcast and forecast elections, this book assesses its achievements and limitations while presenting a new technique of "sentiment analysis" to improve upon them. The authors carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature to show the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate while new case studies from France, the United States and Italy demonstrate how much more accurate "sentiment analysis" can prove.

Handbook Of Economic Forecasting

DOWNLOAD
READ ONLINE

Author : Graham Elliott
language : en
Publisher: Newnes
Release Date : 2013-08-23

Handbook Of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and has been published by Newnes this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-08-23 with Business & Economics categories.

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Handbook Of Computational Social Science For Policy

DOWNLOAD
READ ONLINE

Author : Eleonora Bertoni
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2023-01-23

Handbook Of Computational Social Science For Policy written by Eleonora Bertoni and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-01-23 with Computers categories.

This open access handbook describes foundational issues, methodological approaches and examples on how to analyse and model data using Computational Social Science (CSS) for policy support. Up to now, CSS studies have mostly developed on a small, proof-of concept, scale that prevented from unleashing its potential to provide systematic impact to the policy cycle, as well as from improving the understanding of societal problems to the definition, assessment, evaluation, and monitoring of policies. The aim of this handbook is to fill this gap by exploring ways to analyse and model data for policy support, and to advocate the adoption of CSS solutions for policy by raising awareness of existing implementations of CSS in policy-relevant fields. To this end, the book explores applications of computational methods and approaches like big data, machine learning, statistical learning, sentiment analysis, text mining, systems modelling, and network analysis to different problems in the social sciences. The book is structured into three Parts: the first chapters on foundational issues open with an exposition and description of key policymaking areas where CSS can provide insights and information. In detail, the chapters cover public policy, governance, data justice and other ethical issues. Part two consists of chapters on methodological aspects dealing with issues such as the modelling of complexity, natural language processing, validity and lack of data, and innovation in official statistics. Finally, Part three describes the application of computational methods, challenges and opportunities in various social science areas, including economics, sociology, demography, migration, climate change, epidemiology, geography, and disaster management. The target audience of the book spans from the scientific community engaged in CSS research to policymakers interested in evidence-informed policy interventions, but also includes private companies holding data that can be used to study social sciences and are interested in achieving a policy impact.

Commitment To Equity Handbook

DOWNLOAD
READ ONLINE

Author : Nora Lustig
language : en
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Release Date : 2023-05-01

Commitment To Equity Handbook written by Nora Lustig and has been published by Brookings Institution Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-05-01 with Political Science categories.

Edited by Nora Lustig, the Commitment to Equity Handbook: Estimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality and Poverty (Brookings Institution Press and CEQ Institute-Tulane University, 2nd edition, 2022) is a unique manual on the theory and practical methods to estimate the impact of taxation and public spending on inequality and poverty. In addition, the second edition covers frontier topics such as alternative approaches to measure the redistributive effect of education, health, and infrastructure spending. Policymakers, social planners, and economists are provided with a step-by-step guide to applying fiscal incidence analysis, illustrated by country studies. The 2nd edition of the Handbook has two volumes. Volume 1 is comprised of Part I, Methodology, describes what a CEQ Assessment© is and presents the theoretical underpinnings of fiscal incidence analysis and the indicators used to assess the distributive impact and effectiveness of fiscal policy. Part II, Implementation, presents the methodology on how taxes, subsidies, and social spending should be allocated. It includes a step-by step guide to completing the CEQ Master Workbook©, a multi-sheet Excel file that houses detailed information on the country’s fiscal system and the results used as inputs for policy discussions, academic papers, and policy reports. Part III, “Applications,” presents applications of the CEQ framework to low- and middle-income countries and includes simulations of policy reforms. In this 2nd edition, chapters 1, 6, and 8 have been significantly updated and two new country studies have been added to Part III. Parts IV (updated), V (new), and VI (new) are available online only. Part IV contains the CEQ Assessment’s main tools. Part V includes the databases housed in the CEQ Data Center on Fiscal Redistribution. Part VI contains the CEQ Institute’s microsimulation tools. Volume 2 (new) includes a collection of chapters whose purpose is to expand the knowledge and methodological frontiers to sharpen even further the analysis of fiscal policy’s redistributive impact. Topics include: alternative approaches to value in-kind education and health services; alternative methods to evaluate spending on infrastructure; corporate taxes and taxation on capital incomes; inter-temporal fiscal incidence and the redistributive consequences of social insurance pensions; fiscal redistribution, macroeconomic stability and growth; and, the political economy of fiscal redistribution.

Learning To Manage Global Environmental Risks 2 A Functional Analysis Of Social Responses To Climate Change Ozone Depletion And Acid Rain

DOWNLOAD
READ ONLINE

Author : Social Learning Group
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2001

Learning To Manage Global Environmental Risks 2 A Functional Analysis Of Social Responses To Climate Change Ozone Depletion And Acid Rain written by Social Learning Group and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with Medical categories.

This long-awaited two-volume book examines how the interplay of ideas and actions applied to environmental problems has laid the foundations for global environmental management. It looks at how ideas, interests, and institutions affect management practice; how management capabilities in other areas affect the ability to deal with specific environmental issues; and how learning affects society's approach to the global environment.The book focuses on efforts to deal with climate change, ozone depletion, and acid rain from 1957 (The International Geophysical Year) through 1992 (the UN Conference on Environment and Development). The settings include Canada, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, the former Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, and international environmental organizations. Topics include problem framing, agenda setting, issue attention, risk assessment, monitoring, option assessment, goal and strategy formulation, implementation, and evaluation. Volume 1 provides an overview of the project, of global environmental management in general, and of the three central environmental issues studied; it also contains the individual country studies. Volume 2 contains the management function studies and the book's conclusion. Authors in the set include Jeannine Cavender-Bares, William C. Clark, Ellis Cowling, Nancy M. Dickson, Gerda Dinkelman, Rodney Dobell, Renate Ell, Adam Fenech, Alexander Ginzburg, Elena Goncharova, Peter Haas, Eva Hizsnyik, Michael Huber, Peter Hughes, Jill Jäger, Marc Levy, Angela Liberatore, Diana Liverman, Justin Longo, David McCabe, Donald Munton, Elena Nikitina, Karen O'Brien, Edward Parson, Vladimir Pisarev, Ruud Pleune, Miranda Schreurs, Simon Shackley, Peter Simmons, Heather Smith, Vassily Sokolov, Ferenc L. Tóth, Jeroen van der Sluijs, Josee van Eijndhoven, Claire Waterton, Cor Worrell, and Brian Wynne. More information is available from the SLG web site.

How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy

DOWNLOAD
READ ONLINE

Author : Mr.Serhat Solmaz
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-12-23

How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy written by Mr.Serhat Solmaz and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-23 with Business & Economics categories.

External headwinds, together with domestic vulnerabilities, have loomed over the prospects of emerging markets in recent years. We propose an empirical toolbox to quantify the impact of external macro-financial shocks on domestic economies in parsimonious way. Our model is a Bayesian VAR consisting of two blocks representing home and foreign factors, which is particularly useful for small open economies. By exploiting the mixed-frequency nature of the model, we show how the toolbox can be used for “nowcasting” the output growth. The conditional forecast results illustrate that regular updates of external information, as well as domestic leading indicators, would significantly enhance the accuracy of forecasts. Moreover, the analysis of variance decompositions shows that external shocks are important drivers of the domestic business cycle.

Farm Level Microsimulation Modelling

DOWNLOAD
READ ONLINE

Author : Cathal O'Donoghue
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-12-28

Farm Level Microsimulation Modelling written by Cathal O'Donoghue and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-12-28 with Business & Economics categories.

This book, which is the first to be published in the emerging field of farm-level microsimulation, highlights the different methodological components of microsimulation modelling: hypothetical, static, dynamic, behavioural, spatial and macro–micro. The author applies various microsimulation-based methodological tools to farms in a consistent manner and, supported by a set of Stata codes, undertakes analysis of a wide range of farming systems from OECD countries. To these case studies, O’Donoghue incorporates farming policies such as CAP income support payments, agri-environmental schemes, forestry planting incentives and biomass incentives – in doing so, he illuminates the merits of microsimulation in this environment.

Data Science For Economics And Finance

DOWNLOAD
READ ONLINE

Author : Sergio Consoli
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021

Data Science For Economics And Finance written by Sergio Consoli and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with Application software categories.

This open access book covers the use of data science, including advanced machine learning, big data analytics, Semantic Web technologies, natural language processing, social media analysis, time series analysis, among others, for applications in economics and finance. In addition, it shows some successful applications of advanced data science solutions used to extract new knowledge from data in order to improve economic forecasting models. The book starts with an introduction on the use of data science technologies in economics and finance and is followed by thirteen chapters showing success stories of the application of specific data science methodologies, touching on particular topics related to novel big data sources and technologies for economic analysis (e.g. social media and news); big data models leveraging on supervised/unsupervised (deep) machine learning; natural language processing to build economic and financial indicators; and forecasting and nowcasting of economic variables through time series analysis. This book is relevant to all stakeholders involved in digital and data-intensive research in economics and finance, helping them to understand the main opportunities and challenges, become familiar with the latest methodological findings, and learn how to use and evaluate the performances of novel tools and frameworks. It primarily targets data scientists and business analysts exploiting data science technologies, and it will also be a useful resource to research students in disciplines and courses related to these topics. Overall, readers will learn modern and effective data science solutions to create tangible innovations for economic and financial applications.

Climate Change And Policy

DOWNLOAD
READ ONLINE

Author : Gabriele Gramelsberger
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2011-03-30

Climate Change And Policy written by Gabriele Gramelsberger and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-03-30 with Science categories.

The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances. As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future. But the ‘nature’ of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today’s attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail? The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances. As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future. But the 'nature' of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today's attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail? Gabriele Gramelsberger is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project