Essays On Financial Market Volatility And Real Economic Activity
DOWNLOAD
Download Essays On Financial Market Volatility And Real Economic Activity PDF/ePub or read online books in Mobi eBooks. Click Download or Read Online button to get Essays On Financial Market Volatility And Real Economic Activity book now. This website allows unlimited access to, at the time of writing, more than 1.5 million titles, including hundreds of thousands of titles in various foreign languages. If the content not found or just blank you must refresh this page
Essays On Financial Market Volatility And Real Economic Activity
DOWNLOAD
Author : Sang Yup Choi
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Essays On Financial Market Volatility And Real Economic Activity written by Sang Yup Choi and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.
This dissertation studies how financial market volatility or uncertainty in the U.S. economy affects real economic activity both in the U.S. and other open economies. Chapter 1 critically examines a stylized fact about the effects of uncertainty shocks on the U.S. economy. A link between uncertainty and firms' investment, hiring, and production decisions has drawn much attention in contemporary discussions after the 2008 financial crisis. Bloom (2009) showed that uncertainty events, identified by spikes in stock market volatility, triggered immediate falls in output and employment, followed by rapid rebounds. I show that such stock market volatility shocks failed to produce this same pattern of responses after 1983. Chapter 2 studies the effects of risk aversion shocks, measured by increases in the VIX, on emerging market economies (EMEs). By estimating a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model, I find that, although risk aversion shocks do not have much impact on U.S. output, they do have a noticeable impact on the output of EMEs. To explain the contrast between the impact of risk appetite shocks on EMEs and the impact on the U.S. economy, a credit channel is proposed as a propagation mechanism. In the model, an increase in the VIX is translated to a risk-aversion shock that generates a "flight to quality." As international investors pull their money from EMEs, borrowing costs increase and domestic credit falls as a consequence of credit market imperfections. Higher borrowing costs, in turn, lead to a fall in investment that causes a real depreciation and a decline in total output through sectoral linkages. Finally, Chapter 3, which is co-authored with Prakash Loungani, studies the effect of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics by separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using SP500 data from the first quarter of 1963 through the third quarter of 2014, we construct a separate index to measure sectoral uncertainty and compare its effects on the unemployment rate with that of aggregate uncertainty in a standard VAR model, augmented by a local projection method. We find that aggregate uncertainty shocks lead to an immediate increase in unemployment, followed by swift reversals. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty shocks have a long-lasting impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. Our findings highlight an additional channel through which uncertainty shocks have persistent effects on unemployment by requiring substantial inter-industry labor reallocation.
Essays On Macro Finance Relationships
DOWNLOAD
Author : Azamat Abdymomunov
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Essays On Macro Finance Relationships written by Azamat Abdymomunov and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Electronic dissertations categories.
In my dissertation, I study relationships between macroeconomics and financial markets. In particular, I empirically investigate the links between key macroeconomic indicators, such as output, inflation, and the business cycle, and the pricing of financial assets. The dissertation comprises three essays. The first essay investigates how the entire term structure of interest rates is influenced by regime-shifts in monetary policy. To do so, we develop and estimate an arbitrage-free dynamic term-structure model which accounts for regime shifts in monetary policy, volatility, and the price of risk. Our results for U.S. data from 1985-2008 indicate that (i) the Fed's reaction to inflation has changed over time, switching between "more active" and "less active" monetary policy regimes, (ii) the yield curve in the "more active" regime was considerably more volatile than in the "less active" regime, and (iii) on average, the slope of the yield curve in the "more active" regime was steeper than in the "less active" regime. The steeper yield curve in the "more active" regime reflects higher term premia that result from the risk associated with a more volatile future short-term rate given a more sensitive response to inflation. The second essay examines the predictive power of the entire yield curve for aggregate output. Many studies find that yields for government bonds predict real economic activity. Most of these studies use the yield spread, defined as the difference between two yields of specific maturities, to predict output. In this paper, I propose a different approach that makes use of information contained in the entire term structure of U.S. Treasury yields to predict U.S. real GDP growth. My proposed dynamic yield curve model produces better out-of-sample forecasts of real GDP than those produced by the traditional yield spread model. The main source of this improvement is in the dynamic approach to constructing forecasts versus the direct forecasting approach used in the traditional yield spread model. Although the predictive power of yield curve for output is concentrated in the yield spread, there is also a gain from using information in the curvature factor for the real GDP growth prediction. The third essay investigates time variation in CAPM betas for book-to-market and momentum portfolios across stock market volatility regimes. For our analysis, we jointly model market and portfolio returns using a two-state Markov-switching process, with beta and the market risk premium allowed to vary between "low" and "high" volatility regimes. Our empirical findings suggest strong time variation in betas across volatility regimes in most of the cases for which the unconditional CAPM can be rejected. Although the regime-switching conditional CAPM can still be rejected in many cases, the time-varying betas help explain portfolio returns much better than the unconditional CAPM, especially when market volatility is high.
Essays On Financial And Economic Risks
DOWNLOAD
Author : Tengdong Liu
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Essays On Financial And Economic Risks written by Tengdong Liu and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Economics categories.
This dissertation consists of three essays on financial economics, focusing on different types of financial and economic risks and covering different geographical regions. These risk types are related to stock, bond and commodity markets, financial stress and country risk ratings. The first essay investigates directional relationships, regime variances, transition probabilities and expected regime durations for two systems of economic and financial variables. The first system consists of daily series which include credit and market risks. The second system is based on monthly data, and encompasses credit, and market risks and economic activity and oil variables. The methodology is based on the Markov-Switching cointegrated VAR model. The results suggest there is a pronounced regime-specific behavior in both systems with FTP-MS model. There is a significant difference between the higher expected duration in the low volatility regime and the lower duration in the high volatility regime in both systems. Both models suggest that during the 2007/2008 Great Recession, the system stays mainly in regime 2 but returns to the normality state in the 2009 recovery period. The fundamental variables (industrial production, oil prices and the real interest rate) have varying effects in both regimes and both systems. Quantitative easing has significant effects on the bond expected volatility index MOVE in the high volatility regime and industrial production in both regimes. I also examine the driving forces of the time-varying transition probabilities and find that increases of oil price will decrease the probability that the financial markets stay in the low volatility regime. The second essay examines the asymmetric adjustments of the stock markets of the five BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) to changes in the economic, financial and political country risk ratings of these countries in the short run and long run, using the momentum threshold autoregression (MTAR) and the vector error-correction(VEC) models. The findings suggest that the long-run relationships between these four variables respond asymmetrically depending on the direction of the shocks. The adjustment is faster when the spread between the actual level of stock market index and the level suggested by country risk ratings is narrowing than when it is widening, except for Russia which has the opposite response. The Chinese stock market seems to have the fastest adjustments in the short-and long-run among those of the five BRICS. In terms of the three country risk ratings the financial risk ratings for the five BRICS show the most responsiveness to all the variables in the long-run, while the political risk ratings exhibit the least. The economic and political risk ratings show the fastest adjustments for Brazil, while the financial risk rating is most pronounced in Russia. The third essay examines the Value-at-Risk for ten euro-zone equity markets individually and when divided into two groups: PIIGS and the Core, employing four VaR estimation methods. The results are evaluated according to four statistical properties as well as the Basel capital requirements for the period including the 2007/2008 financial crisis. The estimation and the evaluation are applied to the individual assets as well as to the portfolios consisting of the two groups. The results demonstrate that the CEVT method applied to the ten individual equity assets meet all the statistical criteria the best. The two optimal equity portfolios do not show diversification benefits as the PIIGS portfolio selects Spain's IBEX only and that of the Core opts for Austria's ATX only. The asset class-augmented portfolio that includes the Austrian (ATX) index, oil and gold gives the highest diversification gains. Adding other commodities such as corn and silver, or commodities indices to the augmented portfolio does not enhance the gains. At the optimal portfolio level, the Duration-Peak-Over-the-Threshold (DPOT) is recommended the best in terms of satisfying the Basel rules.
Essays In Capital Markets
DOWNLOAD
Author : Leonid Kogan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1999
Essays In Capital Markets written by Leonid Kogan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Hedging (Finance) categories.
Essays On Nonlinear Modeling Of Real And Financial Markets With Applications To U S And International Data
DOWNLOAD
Author : Zeynep Senyuz
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Essays On Nonlinear Modeling Of Real And Financial Markets With Applications To U S And International Data written by Zeynep Senyuz and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Economic development categories.
Market Volatility
DOWNLOAD
Author : Robert J. Shiller
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 1992-01-30
Market Volatility written by Robert J. Shiller and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992-01-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statistical evidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standard efficient markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popular opinion or psychology can play in price volatility. Why does the stock market crash from time to time? Why does real estate go in and out of booms? Why do long term borrowing rates suddenly make surprising shifts? Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on these questions over the last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretive material for those unfamiliar with the issues, new papers, new surveys of relevant literature, responses to critics, data sets, and reframing of basic conclusions. Included is work authored jointly with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel. Market Volatility sets out basic issues relevant to all markets in which prices make movements for speculative reasons and offers detailed analyses of the stock market, the bond market, and the real estate market. It pursues the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis of speculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general. In studies of the October 1987 stock market crash and boom and post-boom housing markets, Market Volatility reports on research directly aimed at collecting information about popular models and interpreting the consequences of belief in those models. Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data and believes that changing popular models themselves contribute significantly to price movements bearing no relation to fundamental shocks.
Financial Volatility And Real Economic Activity
DOWNLOAD
Author : KEVIN. DALY
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Financial Volatility And Real Economic Activity written by KEVIN. DALY and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with Australia categories.
Essays On Volatility And Risk In Financial Markets
DOWNLOAD
Author : Kwanho Kim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1993
Essays On Volatility And Risk In Financial Markets written by Kwanho Kim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Euro-dollar market categories.
Essays On Predictability Of Emerging Markets Growth And Financial Performance
DOWNLOAD
Author : Maria Ayelen Banegas
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Essays On Predictability Of Emerging Markets Growth And Financial Performance written by Maria Ayelen Banegas and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Economic forecasting categories.
This dissertation seeks to better understand the underlying factors driving financial performance and economic activity in international markets. The first chapter "Predictability of Growth in Emerging Markets: Information in Financial Aggregates" tests for predictability of output growth in a panel of twenty-two emerging market economies. I use pooled panel data methods that control for endogeneity and persistence in the predictor variables to test the predictive power of a large set of financial aggregates including valuation measures, interest rates, and capital flows. I find empirical evidence that stock returns, portfolio investment flows, the term spread and default spreads help predict output growth in emerging markets. In particular, large capital inflows predict subsequent high GDP growth as do high term spreads. Conversely, higher default spreads on emerging market government debt signals lower future GDP growth. Results also suggest that the performance of global aggregates such as commodity markets, a cross-sectional firm size factor, and returns on the market portfolio contain information about the future state of the economy. I benchmark my results against the US and find that there are differences in information flows and the role of capital markets in predicting economic growth. My analysis extends previous findings in the macro-finance literature on the links between the real economy and financial market performance. Within emerging markets, a largely unexplored area of research is related to the study of mutual funds performance. In my second chapter, "Emerging Market Mutual Fund Performance and the State of the Economy" I propose a set of asset class specific predictive variables and exploit them in order to identify those funds that outperform the market in different phases of the economic cycle. I employ a comprehensive survivorship-bias free universe of global and regional emerging market funds and use a Bayesian framework that incorporates predictability in manager skills (stock selection and benchmark timing skills), fund risk loadings and benchmark returns by exploiting ex-ante business cycle related state variables. Results provide empirical evidence of return predictability and the economic value of active management in emerging markets. My final dissertation chapter studies market integration and segmentation and their effects on return predictability. In "Mutual Fund Return Predictability in Partially Segmented Markets" (co-authored with B. Gillen, A. Timmermann and R. Wermers) we generalize existing models for Bayesian asset selection by considering both integrated and partially segmented market models. We find that regional state variables can be used to identify a significant time-varying alpha component among a large sample of funds with a pan- European, European country, or European sector focus. Specifically, the default yield spread, term spread, dividend yield, short interest rate and market volatility, as well as macroeconomic variables tracking consumer price inflation and growth in industrial production prove valuable in identifying, ex-ante, funds with superior performance. Our analysis also suggests that allowing for segmentation in market risk factors enhances risk-adjusted performance.
Essays On Financial Market Volatility
DOWNLOAD
Author : Ai Jun Hou
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Essays On Financial Market Volatility written by Ai Jun Hou and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Interest rates categories.