Essays On Forecasting Financial And Economic Time Series
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Essays On Forecasting Financial And Economic Time Series
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Author : Mohaimen Mansur
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Essays On Forecasting Financial And Economic Time Series written by Mohaimen Mansur and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
Volatility And Time Series Econometrics
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Author : Tim Bollerslev
language : en
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Release Date : 2010-02-11
Volatility And Time Series Econometrics written by Tim Bollerslev and has been published by OUP Oxford this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-02-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Robert Engle received the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2003 for his work in time series econometrics. This book contains 16 original research contributions by some the leading academic researchers in the fields of time series econometrics, forecasting, volatility modelling, financial econometrics and urban economics, along with historical perspectives related to field of time series econometrics more generally. Engle's Nobel Prize citation focuses on his path-breaking work on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and the profound effect that this work has had on the field of financial econometrics. Several of the chapters focus on conditional heteroskedasticity, and develop the ideas of Engle's Nobel Prize winning work. Engle's work has had its most profound effect on the modelling of financial variables and several of the chapters use newly developed time series methods to study the behavior of financial variables. Each of the 16 chapters may be read in isolation, but they all importantly build on and relate to the seminal work by Nobel Laureate Robert F. Engle.
Essays On Time Series Forecasting With Neural Network Or Long Dependence Autoregressive Models And Macroeconomic News Effects On Bond Yields
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Author : Morvan Nongni Donfack
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
Essays On Time Series Forecasting With Neural Network Or Long Dependence Autoregressive Models And Macroeconomic News Effects On Bond Yields written by Morvan Nongni Donfack and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with Neural networks (Computer science) categories.
This thesis, organized in three chapters, focuses on modelling and forecasting economic and financial time series. The first two chapters propose new econometric models for analysing economic and financial data by relaxing unrealistic assumptions usually made in the literature. Chapter 1 develops a new volatility model named TVP[subscript ANN]-GARCH. The model offers rich dynamics to model financial data by allowing for a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) structure in which parameters vary over time according to an artificial neural network (ANN). The use of ANNs for parameters dynamics is a valuable contribution as it helps to deal with the problem of likelihood evaluation (exhibited in time-varying parameters (TVP) models). It also allows for the use of additional explanatory variables. The chapter develops an original and efficient Sequential Monte Carlo sampler (SMC) to estimate the model. An empirical application shows that the model favourably compares to popular volatility processes in terms of out-of sample fit. The approach can easily be extended to any fixed-parameters model. Chapter 2 develops three parsimonious autoregressive (AR) lag polynomials that generate slowly decaying autocorrelation functions as generally observed financial and economic time series. The dynamics of the lag polynomials are similar to that of two well performing processes, namely the Markov-Switching Multifractal (MSM) and the Factorial Hidden Markov Volatility (FHMV) models. They are very flexible as they can be applied in many popular models such as ARMA, GARCH, and stochastic volatility processes. An empirical analysis highlights the usefulness of the lag polynomials for conditional mean and volatility forecasting. They could be considered as forecasting alternatives for economic and financial time series. The last chapter relies on a two steps predictive regression approach to identify the impact of US macroeconomic releases on three small open economies (Canada, United Kingdom, and Sweden) bond yields at high and low frequencies. Our findings suggest that US macro news are significantly more important in explaining yield curve dynamics in small open economies (SOEs) than domestic news itself. Not only US monetary policy news are important drivers of SOEs bond yield changes, but business cycle news also play a significant role.
Essays In Nonlinear Time Series Econometrics
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Author : Niels Haldrup
language : en
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Release Date : 2014-06-26
Essays In Nonlinear Time Series Econometrics written by Niels Haldrup and has been published by OUP Oxford this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-26 with Business & Economics categories.
This edited collection concerns nonlinear economic relations that involve time. It is divided into four broad themes that all reflect the work and methodology of Professor Timo Teräsvirta, one of the leading scholars in the field of nonlinear time series econometrics. The themes are: Testing for linearity and functional form, specification testing and estimation of nonlinear time series models in the form of smooth transition models, model selection and econometric methodology, and finally applications within the area of financial econometrics. All these research fields include contributions that represent state of the art in econometrics such as testing for neglected nonlinearity in neural network models, time-varying GARCH and smooth transition models, STAR models and common factors in volatility modeling, semi-automatic general to specific model selection for nonlinear dynamic models, high-dimensional data analysis for parametric and semi-parametric regression models with dependent data, commodity price modeling, financial analysts earnings forecasts based on asymmetric loss function, local Gaussian correlation and dependence for asymmetric return dependence, and the use of bootstrap aggregation to improve forecast accuracy. Each chapter represents original scholarly work, and reflects the intellectual impact that Timo Teräsvirta has had and will continue to have, on the profession.
Volatility And Time Series Econometrics Essays In Honor Of Robert Engle
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Author : Tim Bollerslev
language : en
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Release Date : 2010-02-11
Volatility And Time Series Econometrics Essays In Honor Of Robert Engle written by Tim Bollerslev and has been published by OUP Oxford this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-02-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Robert Engle received the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2003 for his work in time series econometrics. This book contains 16 original research contributions by some the leading academic researchers in the fields of time series econometrics, forecasting, volatility modelling, financial econometrics and urban economics, along with historical perspectives related to field of time series econometrics more generally.Engle's Nobel Prize citation focuses on his path-breaking work on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and the profound effect that this work has had on the field of financial econometrics. Several of the chapters focus on conditional heteroskedasticity, and develop the ideas of Engle's Nobel Prize winning work. Engle's work has had its most profound effect on the modelling of financial variables and several of the chapters use newly developed time series methods to study thebehavior of financial variables. Each of the 16 chapters may be read in isolation, but they all importantly build on and relate to the seminal work by Nobel Laureate Robert F. Engle.
Essays In Market Integrations And Economic Forecasting
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Author : Alonso E. Gomez Albert
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Essays In Market Integrations And Economic Forecasting written by Alonso E. Gomez Albert and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.
Essays On Forecasting Stationary And Nonstationary Economic Time Series
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Author : Lance Joseph Bachmeier
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2002
Essays On Forecasting Stationary And Nonstationary Economic Time Series written by Lance Joseph Bachmeier and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with categories.
Time Series Models For Business And Economic Forecasting
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Author : Philip Hans Franses
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1998-10-15
Time Series Models For Business And Economic Forecasting written by Philip Hans Franses and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-10-15 with Business & Economics categories.
An introduction to time series models for business and economic forecasting.
Forecasting Economic Time Series
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Author : C. W. J. Granger
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2014-05-10
Forecasting Economic Time Series written by C. W. J. Granger and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-05-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Economic Theory, Econometrics, and Mathematical Economics, Second Edition: Forecasting Economic Time Series presents the developments in time series analysis and forecasting theory and practice. This book discusses the application of time series procedures in mainstream economic theory and econometric model building. Organized into 10 chapters, this edition begins with an overview of the problem of dealing with time series possessing a deterministic seasonal component. This text then provides a description of time series in terms of models known as the time-domain approach. Other chapters consider an alternative approach, known as spectral or frequency-domain analysis, that often provides useful insights into the properties of a series. This book discusses as well a unified approach to the fitting of linear models to a given time series. The final chapter deals with the main advantage of having a Gaussian series wherein the optimal single series, least-squares forecast will be a linear forecast. This book is a valuable resource for economists.
Essays In Finance And Time Series Econometrics
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Author : Scott A. Spear
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1997
Essays In Finance And Time Series Econometrics written by Scott A. Spear and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Interest rates categories.