Essays On International Business Cycles
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Essays On International Business Cycles
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Author : Keita Oikawa
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Essays On International Business Cycles written by Keita Oikawa and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.
In this dissertation, I present three essays on international business cycles. In the first essay, I document the empirical regularities of international business cycles using the OECD Quarterly Data, and review the existing literatures in this field. By checking the data, I point out 1) net exports-output ratios both in nominal and real terms are countercyclical before 1990 for most of the OECD countries, 2) but the ratios changes their signs from negative to positive after 1990 for some of the countries, and 3) the main reason for the sign changes is that there are changes in the relationship between exports and output: exports were weakly correlated with output or were lagged with output before 1990, but exports become strongly correlated with output and also coincident. In the literature review part, I suggest that many of the properties of international real business cycles can be accounted for by benchmark international real business cycle models, such as Backus, Kehoe and Kydland (1992) and subsequent literatures, but those models cannot account for the coexistence of procyclical and countercyclical net exports. Further, incorporating Bansal and Yaron (2004)-style multi-factor productivity with short-run (trend-stationary transitory) shocks and long-run (difference-stationary growth) shocks are promising in order to account for the new observation about the trade variables. In the second essay, I document that the correlation between net exports and output has not always been negative after 1960. For the G6 countries, most of the countries experienced countercyclical net exports before 1990. However, some of these countries, including Germany and Japan, experienced procyclical net exports after 1990 even though they experienced countercyclical net exports before that. I also show that a simple one-good two-country business cycle model with a multi-factor productivity process can explain the phenomena. A positive transitory shocks to productivity leads to a positive response in net exports because its consumption risk-sharing effect, which causes a international resource flow from Home to Foreign country, is larger than its efficiency effect, which causes an increase in investments in Home country by importing goods form Foreign country. On the other hand, a positive growth shocks to productivity lead to a negative response in net exports because its consumption risk-sharing effect is smaller than its efficiency effect. I estimate the stochastic productivity processes for the G6 countries by using the simulated method of moments, and the simulation results of the model based on the estimated parameters are able to account for the changes in net export dynamics from pre-1990 to post-1990 for Germany and Japan. In the third essay, I document that there are changes in the correlations about trade variables and capital flows for the G7 countries: 1) the magnitude of the contemporaneous correlation of exports with output is a half of that of imports with output for pre-1990, but the former is almost the same value as the latter for post-1990, 2) the magnitude of the contemporaneous correlation of real net exports-output ratio with output is significantly negative for pre-1990, but it becomes almost zero or weakly positive for post-1990. I present two types of two-country two-good real business cycle models, one of which is with complete financial markets and the other one is with incomplete financial markets model in a sense that only risk-free one-period bonds are traded. I also add two types of shocks, transitory and growth shocks, to these two models in the spirit of Aguiar and Gopinath (2007). Firstly, the standard complete financial markets model has a strong correlation of exports with output and a weak correlation of imports with output. Secondly, the standard incomplete financial markets model has a weak correlation of exports with output and a strong correlation of imports with output. Finally, with reasonable changes in model parameter values, both the complete and incomplete market models can account for the two empirical regularities above, but only the incomplete market model can account for the empirical regularities for pre-1990. I evaluate these models in light of cross-country correlation properties based on actual data, especially the cross-country consumption correlation anomaly. I show that the incomplete financial markets model is still better than the complete market model because the cross-country consumption correlation in the incomplete financial markets model is still larger than but closer to the cross-country output correlation compared with the case of the complete financial markets model.
Essays On International Trade And Business Cycles
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Author : Daisoon Kim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Essays On International Trade And Business Cycles written by Daisoon Kim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
This research investigates how international trade and business cycles vary with characteristics of industries. The first chapter documents cost side industry heterogeneity across narrowly defined industries. The second and third chapters study the short run (international business cycle) and long run (home market effect) phenomenon, respectively. The research contributes to a better understanding of how the supply side industry heterogeneity plays a vital role in international trade and macroeconomics. The first chapter provides a method to estimate the cost structure. The approach relies on cost minimization and free entry condition with frictions, which allows decomposing sources of economies of scale into a sloping marginal cost curve and fixed cost. The US manufacturing industry data show that industry-level economies of scale are more strongly associated with marginal costs than fixed costs. The second chapter shows that the industry's international business cycle patterns vary systemically by the slopes. In industries with decreasing marginal costs, output, imports, and exports are all more correlated with aggregate GDP than in industries with increasing marginal costs. To rationalize the observed patterns, this chapter introduces sloping marginal cost curves and their variations across industries in an open economy macroeconomic model. It delivers endogenous export gains/losses and within-firm links between domestic and export markets which generate two attractive features of the model: (i) it raises model-implied cross-country aggregate GDP comovements which are close to the data, and (ii) it reproduces observed industrial international business cycle patterns. The results suggest that sloping marginal cost curves and their heterogeneity are informative to understand the international business cycle. The third chapter studies how industry characteristics determine the home market effect: the impact of country size on trade surplus and the location of industries. This chapter constructs a two-country multi-industry new trade model that allows for various supply- and demand-side industry characteristics. A novel feature of the model is that economies of scale arise not just from fixed costs, but also from sloping marginal cost curves. The model predicts that large countries have a higher concentration of industries in which (i) marginal costs are an important source of economies of scale, and (ii) products are more differentiated. This chapter tests these theoretical predictions using a gravity-based specification and introduces instrumental variables to fix measurement error and proxy problems. The empirical results are consistent with the main predictions of the model. The results show that the primary building blocks of new trade theory, economies of scale and product differentiation, are central to understanding international trade patterns in narrowly defined industries. The research supposes that a non-linear cost function and variations in cost structure across industries improve our understanding of international trade and business cycles.
Essays On International Business Cycles
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Author : Jan-Philipp Dueber
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Essays On International Business Cycles written by Jan-Philipp Dueber and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
Essays On International Business Cycles
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Author : Robert Miguel Walter Kurt Kollmann
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1991
Essays On International Business Cycles written by Robert Miguel Walter Kurt Kollmann and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991 with Business cycles categories.
Essays On International Business Cycles
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Author : Sinchan Mitra
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Essays On International Business Cycles written by Sinchan Mitra and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.
1The first two essays are joint work with Tara Sinclair of George Washington University.
Essays In International Business Cycles
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Author : Andrea Raffo
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
Essays In International Business Cycles written by Andrea Raffo and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Business cycles categories.
Three Essays In International Business Cycles
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Author : Kevin Hoyt McIntyre
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1998
Three Essays In International Business Cycles written by Kevin Hoyt McIntyre and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with categories.
Analysing Modern Business Cycles
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Author : Philip A. Klein
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2019-07-25
Analysing Modern Business Cycles written by Philip A. Klein and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-25 with Business & Economics categories.
This "Festschrift" honours Geoffrey H. Moore's life-long contribution to the study of business cycles. After some analysts had concluded that business cycles were dead, renewed economic turbulence in the 1970s and 1980s brought new life to the subject. The study of business cycles now encompasses the global economic system, and this work aims to push back the frontiers of knowledge.
Two Essays On International Business Cycles
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Author : Sunghyun Henry Kim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1997
Two Essays On International Business Cycles written by Sunghyun Henry Kim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with categories.
Essays On Economic Development And International Business Cycles
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Essays On Economic Development And International Business Cycles written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Business cycles categories.
