Essays On The Prediction Process
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Essays On The Prediction Process
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Author : Frank B. Knight
language : en
Publisher: IMS
Release Date : 1981
Essays On The Prediction Process written by Frank B. Knight and has been published by IMS this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1981 with Mathematics categories.
Essays On The Prediction Process
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Author : Frank B. Knight
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008*
Essays On The Prediction Process written by Frank B. Knight and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008* with Prediction analysis categories.
This e-book is the product of Project Euclid and its mission to advance scholarly communication in the field of theoretical and applied mathematics and statistics. Project Euclid was developed and deployed by the Cornell University Library and is jointly managed by Cornell and the Duke University Press.
An Essay On The Theory Of Economic Prediction
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Author : Lawrence Robert Klein
language : en
Publisher: Chicago : Markham Publishing Company
Release Date : 1970
An Essay On The Theory Of Economic Prediction written by Lawrence Robert Klein and has been published by Chicago : Markham Publishing Company this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1970 with Business & Economics categories.
Understanding And Prediction
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Author : S. Nowak
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Understanding And Prediction written by S. Nowak and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Philosophy categories.
One of the more characteristic features of contemporary sociology is an increasing interest in theories. More and more theories are being developed in various areas of social investigation; we observe also an increasing number of verificational studies aimed primarily toward the verification of various theories. The essays presented in this volume deal with theories too, but they approach this problem from a methodological perspective. There fore it seems worthwhile in the preface to this volume to make a kind of general declaration about the author's aims and his approach to the subject of his interest, and about his view of the role of methodological reflection in the development of sciences. First let me say what methodology cannot do. It cannot be a substitute for the formulation of substantive theories, nor can it substitute for the empirical studies which confirm or reject such theories. Therefore its impact upon the development of any science, including the social sciences, is only indirect, by its undertaking the analysis of research tools and rules of scientific procedures. It can also propose certain standards for scientific procedures, but the application of these standards is the domain of substan tive researchers, and it is the substantive researchers who ultimately develop any science. Nevertheless the potential impact-of methodological reflection, even if only indirect, should not be underestimated.
Essays In Forecasting
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Author : Nii Ayi Christian Armah
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Essays In Forecasting written by Nii Ayi Christian Armah and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Economic forecasting categories.
This dissertation comprises three essays in macroeconomic forecasting. The first essay discusses model selection and predictive accuracy tests in the context of parameter and model uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. Particular emphasis is placed on the construction of valid bootstrap procedures for calculating the impact of parameter estimation error on the class of test statistics with limiting distributions that are functionals of Gaussian processes. Results of an empirical investigation of the marginal predictive content of money for income are also presented. The second essay outlines a number of approaches to the selection of factor proxies (observed variables that proxy unobserved estimated factors) using statistics based on large sample datasets. This approach to factor proxy selection is examined via a small Monte Carlo experiment and a set of prediction experiments, where evidence supporting our proposed methodology is presented. The third essay compares the predictive content of a set of macroeconomic indicators with that of various other observable variables that act as proxies to factors constructed using diffusion index methodology. The analysis suggests that certain spreads constructed as the difference between short or long term debt instruments and the federal funds rate are found to be useful indicators. Surprisingly, traditional spreads, such as the yield curve slope and the reverse yield gap are not found to provide additional predictive power.
Essays In Testing And Forecasting With Nested Predictive Regression Models Using Encompassing Principle
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Author : Yan Ge
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Essays In Testing And Forecasting With Nested Predictive Regression Models Using Encompassing Principle written by Yan Ge and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with Asymptotic distribution (Probability theory) categories.
Out-of-sample tests for equal predictive accuracy have been widely used in economics and finance and are regarded as the "ultimate test of a forecasting model". When two non-nested models are compared, Diebold and Mariano (DM 1995) point out that the t-statistic of the mean squared-error loss-differential is asymptotically standard normal. When two models are nested, however, Clark and McCracken (CM 2001, 2005, 2009) point out that due to the parameter prediction error (PEE), the statistics will result in non-standard distribution. Further more Clark and West (CW 2006, 2007) point out that the DM statistic for testing the equal predictive accuracy of two nested mean regression models gives a favor to a smaller (nested) model, because the DM statistic tends to be negative under the null hypothesis, penalizing the bigger (nesting) model for the finite sample parameter estimation sampling error. They point out that the negative bias can be corrected by adding a non-negative adjustment term. The adjusted DM statistics (DM plus the adjustment term) is equivalent to the "encompassing test". The thesis consists of three chapters: The first chapter is comparing predictive accuracy and model combination using encompassing test for Nested Quantile Models, we consider using the quantile model and check loss function. We show that the adjusted DM statistics is asymptotically standard normal when out-of-sample to in-sample ratio goes to infinity. The second chapter is comparing nested predictive regression models with persistent predictors, in which we introduce a persistent estimator in the second model. We show that the adjusted DM statistics will still be asymptotically standard normal due to the faster convergence rate of the second model. The third chapter is encompassing test for nested predictive regression models with near unit root and drift, the big model contains a persistent estimator with drift. We show regardless whether drift term (deterministic trend) or the coefficient of autoregressive process of the predictor (stochastic trend) dominates the model, due to the higher than root-n convergence rate of the coefficient in the second model, the adjusted DM statistics is asymptotically standard normal.
Predicting Species Occurrences
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Author : J. Michael Scott
language : en
Publisher: Island Press
Release Date : 2002-02
Predicting Species Occurrences written by J. Michael Scott and has been published by Island Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-02 with Science categories.
Predictions about where different species are, where they are not, and how they move across a landscape or respond to human activities -- if timber is harvested, for instance, or stream flow altered -- are important aspects of the work of wildlife biologists, land managers, and the agencies and policymakers that govern natural resources. Despite the increased use and importance of model predictions, these predictions are seldom tested and have unknown levels of accuracy.Predicting Species Occurrences addresses those concerns, highlighting for managers and researchers the strengths and weaknesses of current approaches, as well as the magnitude of the research required to improve or test predictions of currently used models. The book is an outgrowth of an international symposium held in October 1999 that brought together scientists and researchers at the forefront of efforts to process information about species at different spatial and temporal scales. It is a comprehensive reference that offers an exhaustive treatment of the subject, with 65 chapters by leading experts from around the world that: review the history of the theory and practice of modeling and present a standard terminology examine temporal and spatial scales in terms of their influence on patterns and processes of species distribution offer detailed discussions of state-of-the-art modeling tools and descriptions of methods for assessing model accuracy discuss how to predict species presence and abundance present examples of how spatially explicit data on demographics can provide important information for managers An introductory chapter by Michael A. Huston examines the ecological context in which predictions of species occurrences are made, and a concluding chapter by John A. Wiens offers an insightful review and synthesis of the topics examined along with guidance for future directions and cautions regarding misuse of models. Other contributors include Michael P. Austin, Barry R. Noon, Alan H. Fielding, Michael Goodchild, Brian A. Maurer, John T. Rotenberry, Paul Angermeier, Pierre R. Vernier, and more than a hundred others.Predicting Species Occurrences offers important new information about many of the topics raised in the seminal volume Wildlife 2000 (University of Wisconsin Press, 1986) and will be the standard reference on this subject for years to come. Its state-of-the-art assessment will play a key role in guiding the continued development and application of tools for making accurate predictions and is an indispensable volume for anyone engaged in species management or conservation.
Seminar On Stochastic Processes 1983
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Author : Cinlar
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Seminar On Stochastic Processes 1983 written by Cinlar and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Mathematics categories.
This volume consists of about half of the papers presented during a three-day seminar on stochastic processes. The seminar was the third of such yearly seminars aimed at bringing together a small group of researchers to discuss their current work in an informal atmosphere. The previous two seminars were held at Northwesterr. University, Evanston. This one was held at the University of Florida, Gainesville. The invited participants in the seminar were B. ATKINSON, K.L. CHUNG, C. DELLACHERIE, J.L. DOOB, E.B. DYNKIN, N. FALKNER, R.K. GETOOR, J. GLOVER, T. JEULIN, H. KASPI, T. McCONNELL, J. MITRO, E. PERKINS, Z. POP-STOJANOVIC, M. RAO, L.C.G. ROGERS, P. SALMINEN, M.J. SHARPE, S.R.S. VARADHAN, and J. WALSH. We thank them and the other participants for the lively atmosphere they have created. The seminar was made possible through the generous supports of the University of Florida, Department of Mathematics, and the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Grant No. 82-0189, to Northwestern University. We are grateful for their support. Finally, we thank Professors Zoran POP-STOJANOVIC and Murali RAO for their time, effort, and kind hospitality in the organization of the seminar and during our stay in Gainesville.
Foundations Of The Prediction Process
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Author : Frank B. Knight
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1992
Foundations Of The Prediction Process written by Frank B. Knight and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992 with Mathematics categories.
This book presents a unified treatment of the prediction process approach to continuous time stochastic processes. The underling idea is that there are two kinds of time: stationary physical time and the moving observer's time. By developing this theme, the author develops a theory of stochastic processes whereby two processes are considered which coexist on the same probability space. In this way, the observer' process is strongly Markovian. Consequently, any measurable stochastic process of a real parameter may be regarded as a homogeneous strong Markov process in an appropriate setting. This leads to a unifying principle for the representation of general processes in terms of martingales which facilitates the prediction of their properties. While the ideas are advanced, the methods are reasonable elementary and should be accessible to readers with basic knowledge of measure theory, functional analysis, stochastic integration, and probability on the level of the convergence theorem for positive super-martingales.
Essays In Corporate Prediction Markets
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Author : Majid Karimi
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Essays In Corporate Prediction Markets written by Majid Karimi and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with Business forecasting categories.
Personal subjective opinions are one of the most important assets in management. Prediction markets are mechanisms that can be deployed to elicit and aggregate a group of people's opinions regarding the outcome of future events at any point in time. Prediction markets are exchange-traded markets where security values are tied to the outcome of future events. Prediction markets are systematically designed in a way that their market prices capture the crowd's consensus about the probability of a future event. Corporations harness internal prediction markets for managerial decision making and business forecasting. Prediction markets are traditionally designed for large and diverse populations, two properties that are not often displayed in corporate settings. Therefore special considerations must be given to prediction markets used in corporations. Our first contribution in this thesis is in addressing the issue of diversity, in the sense of risk preferences, in corporate prediction markets. We study prediction markets in the presence of risk averse or risk seeking agents that have unknown risk preferences. We show that such agents' behavior is not desirable for the purpose of information aggregation. We then characterize the agents' behavior with respect to prediction market parameters and offer a systematic method to market organizers that fine tunes market parameters so at to best mitigate the impact of a pool agents' risk-preferences. Our Second contribution in this thesis is in recommending prediction market mechanisms in different settings. There are many prediction market mechanisms with various advantages and weaknesses. The choice of a market mechanism can heavily affect the market accuracy and in turn, the success of a managerial decision, or a forecast based on prediction markets' prices. Using trade data from two real-world prediction markets, we study the two main types of prediction markets mechanism and provide the much-needed insight as to what market mechanism to choose in various situations.