Evaluating Policy Rules Under Imperfect Credibility

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Evaluating Policy Rules Under Imperfect Credibility

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Author : Mr.Paul R. Masson
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1991-12-01

Evaluating Policy Rules Under Imperfect Credibility written by Mr.Paul R. Masson and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.

Evaluation of policy rules using empirical macroeconomic models is usually done on the assumption that the rules are perfectly credible. However, there are usually circumstances that cause the authorities to abandon any given rule. The public's expectations reflect this possibility. In the paper, credibility is assumed to depend on the probability that the authorities will abandon a rule because the resulting utility exceeds that from maintaining the rule. Simulations of a disinflation policy leading to price stability are presented. Its credibility varies over time, depending on the paths for output and inflation.

Evaluating Policy Rules Under Imperfect Credibility

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Author : Paul R. Masson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1991

Evaluating Policy Rules Under Imperfect Credibility written by Paul R. Masson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991 with Deflation (Finance) categories.

Evaluating Policy Regimes

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Author : Ralph Bryant
language : en
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Release Date : 2010-12-01

Evaluating Policy Regimes written by Ralph Bryant and has been published by Brookings Institution Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.

Economists have long debated the theoretical merits—for an individual nation and for a multi-nation world economy—of alternative approaches to the conduct of economic policy. Yet theory alone cannot resolve the important issues at stake. Only after the robustness of policy regimes has been carefully examined with empirical evidence will policymakers and economists be able to reach more of a consensus. This pathbreaking volume takes major steps forward in meeting the need for a combination of theoretical and empirical evaluations of alternative policy regimes. Bringing together individuals and groups doing pioneering research on macroeconomic interaction, it explores what approach to monetary policy would lead to superior performance by individual national economies and the world economy as a whole. Many parts of the book use the analytical techniques of stochastic simulation, an evaluation procedure increasingly employed at the frontier of empirical economic analysis. The book provides a summary of the hey issues involved in evaluating policy regimes and clarifies the relationships among those issues. The authors examine the stabilization properties of alternative monetary-policy regimes and analyze how well various regime types perform in the face of unexpected shocks to national economies. Among their conclusions, they find that some simplified regimes for monetary policy are markedly less promising than others for achieving the stabilization objectives commonly sought by policymakers. Evaluating Policy Regimes is another major installment in a continuing world wide research project, sponsored by the Brookings Institution, to improve empirical knowledge about the interdependence of national economies.

Evaluating Policy Rules Under Imperfect Credibility

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Author : Paul R. Masson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006

Evaluating Policy Rules Under Imperfect Credibility written by Paul R. Masson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.

Evaluation of policy rules using empirical macroeconomic models is usually done on the assumption that the rules are perfectly credible. However, there are usually circumstances that cause the authorities to abandon any given rule. The public`s expectations reflect this possibility. In the paper, credibility is assumed to depend on the probability that the authorities will abandon a rule because the resulting utility exceeds that from maintaining the rule. Simulations of a disinflation policy leading to price stability are presented. Its credibility varies over time, depending on the paths for output and inflation.

Imf Staff Papers Volume 39 No 1

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1992-01-01

Imf Staff Papers Volume 39 No 1 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper focuses on exchange rate economics. Two main views of exchange rate determination have evolved since the early 1970s: the monetary approach to the exchange rate (in flexible-price, sticky-price, and real interest differential formulations); and the portfolio balance approach. In this paper, the literature on these views is surveyed, followed by a discussion of the empirical evidence and likely future developments in the area of exchange rate determination. The literature on foreign exchange market efficiency, exchange rates and “news,” and international parity conditions is also reviewed.

Testing For Credibility Effects

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Author : Mr.Mark P. Taylor
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1991-11-01

Testing For Credibility Effects written by Mr.Mark P. Taylor and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper examines some recent techniques designed to draw inferences about the credibility of changes in macroeconomic policy regimes. An alternative two-step approach, based on the decomposition between permanent and transitory components of a "credibility variable" is proposed. The methodology is then used to test for the existence of a credibility effect in the Cruzado stabilization plan implemented in Brazil in 1986.

Research Activities Of The Imf January 1991 December 1998

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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1999-09-24

Research Activities Of The Imf January 1991 December 1998 written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-09-24 with Business & Economics categories.

A selective index of major research papers prepared by IMF staff in 1991-98.

Imf Staff Papers

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1992-01-01

Imf Staff Papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper examines market liberalization policies in a reforming socialist economy. The aim of this paper is to develop a model of such a reforming socialist economy and to explore the consequences of market-oriented policies in the context of such an economy. A model of a socialist economy is presented, incorporating bargaining over wages and employment in the socialized sector and shortages that are reflected in the black market. The model is used to analyze the implications of liberalization policies, including trade liberalization, an administered price increase, and provisions allowing for increased direct foreign investment. The nonsocialized sector is perfectly competitive and produces an output that is different from that of the socialized sector. It has a neoclassical production function using a sector-specific input (say, capital) and labor. The results suggest that reforms may have different effects under different trade regimes and that small price reforms may have perverse effects.

Research Activities Of The Imf January 1991 December 1999

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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2000-01-01

Research Activities Of The Imf January 1991 December 1999 written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.

Research activity in the IMF emphasizes the links between the organization's policy and operational concerns. The main objectives of research is IMF staff understanding of policy and operational issues relevant to the institution, and to improve the analytical quality of the work prepared for management and the Executive Board and the advice provided to member countries. The scope of research in the IMF is defined by the purposes and functions of the institution. In order to foster innovation and ensure quality control, the IMF makes much of its research available outside the institution and encourages staff to interact with academia and other research organizations through conferences, seminars, and occasional joint research projects. The visiting scholar’s program has also enhanced the quality of research done in the IMF. This program brings in leading members of the economics profession from around the world to assist in the preparation of papers for the Executive Board and to conduct research on IMF-related issues.

Discretionary Monetary Policy Versus Rules

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Author : Mr.Guy Meredith
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1992-08-01

Discretionary Monetary Policy Versus Rules written by Mr.Guy Meredith and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992-08-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper compares the hypothetical performance of various monetary policy rules with that of the discretionary policies actually pursued in Japan over the 1986-91 period. The results suggest that simple rules based on targeting growth in either the money supply, nominal income, or prices would have failed to stabilize economic variables more successfully than discretionary policies. At the same time, it appears that an indicator of monetary conditions incorporating movements in the real exchange rate and the real interest rate would have been useful in assessing the effect of current policies on future activity.