Evaluating Sensitivity Of Parameters In Predictive Pavement Deterioration Modelling
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Evaluating Sensitivity Of Parameters In Predictive Pavement Deterioration Modelling
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Author : Nabin Pradhan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2001
Evaluating Sensitivity Of Parameters In Predictive Pavement Deterioration Modelling written by Nabin Pradhan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with Pavements categories.
The Applicability Of Published Pavement Deterioration Models For National Roads
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Author : Louw Kannemeyer
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
The Applicability Of Published Pavement Deterioration Models For National Roads written by Louw Kannemeyer and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
The growing interest in pavement management systems (PMSs), both in South Mrica and internationally, has been in response to a shift in importance from the construction of new roads to the maintenance of the existing paved network coupled with increasingly restrictive road funding. In order to develop a balanced expenditure programme for the national roads of South Africa there is a need to predict the rate of deterioration of a pavement and the nature of the changes in its condition so that the timing, type and cost of maintenance needs could be estimated. Internationally these expected changes in pavement condition are predicted by pavement deterioration models, which normally are algorithms developed mathematically or from a study of pavement deterioration. Since no usable pavement deterioration models existed locally, it was necessary to evaluate overseas literature on pavement deterioration prediction models with the aim of identifying models possibly applicable to the national roads of South Africa. Only deterioration models developed from the deterioration results of inservice pavements under a normal traffic spectrum were evaluated. Models developed from accelerated testing were avoided since these models virtually eliminated long?term effects (these are primarily environmental but also include effects of the rest periods between loads), and that the unrepresentative traffic loading regimes can distort the behaviour of the pavement materials, which is often stress dependent. Models developed from the following studies were evaluated: AASHO Road Test The Kenya study Brazil-UNDP study (HDM-ill models) Texas study Of all the above models studied that were developed from major studies it was concluded that the incremental models developed during the Brazil study, were the most appropriate for further evaluation under South African conditions. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the HDM-III models to evaluate their sensitivity to changes in the different parameters comprising each model. The results obtained from the sensitivity analysis indicate that the incremental roughness prediction model incorporated into the HDM-III model tends to be insensitive to changes in most parameters. Accuracy ranges for input data were, however, also identified for parameters which indicated an increase in sensitivity in certain ranges. The local applicability of the HDM-III deterioration models were finally evaluated by comparing HDM-III model predictions with the actually observed deterioration values of a selected number of national road pavement sections. To enable the above comparison, a validation procedure had to be developed according to which the format of existing data could be transformed to that required by the HDM-ill model, as well as additional information be calculated. From the comparison it was concluded that the HDM-III models are capable of accurately predicting the observed deterioration on South African national roads, but that for most models calibration is needed for local conditions. Guidelines regarding recommended calibration factor ranges for the different HDM-ill models are given. Finally it is recommended that the HDM-III models should be considered for incorporation into a balanced expenditure programme for the national roads of South Africa.
Developing Cost Effective Pavement Maintenance And Rehabilitation Schedules
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Author : Gulfam Jannat
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Developing Cost Effective Pavement Maintenance And Rehabilitation Schedules written by Gulfam Jannat and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with Pavements categories.
Pavement Maintenance and Rehabilitation (M&R) are the most critical and expensive components of infrastructure asset management. Increasing traffic load, climate change and resource limitations for road maintenance accelerate pavement deterioration and eventually increase the need for future maintenance treatments. Consequently, pavement management programs are increasingly complex. The complexities are attributed to the precise assessment process of the overall pavement condition, realistic distress prediction and identification of cost-effective M&R schedules. Cost-effective road M&R practices are only possible when the evaluation of pavement condition is precise, pavement deterioration models are accurate, and resources must also be available at the right time. In a Pavement Management System (PMS), feasible M&R treatments are identified at the end of each branch of the decision trees. The decision trees are based on empirical relationships of the pavement performance index. Moreover, the predicted improvements in pavement performance for any treatment are set based on engineering experiences. Furthermore, the remaining service life of the pavement is estimated from the predicted deterioration of the overall condition. The future deterioration of the overall condition is estimated based on the initial condition and by considering only the effect of age notwithstanding the effect of traffic or materials. In assessing the overall condition of the pavement, this research overcomes the limitations of engineering judgment by incorporating a Mechanistic-Empirical (M-E) approach and estimating the improvement in performance for specific treatment types. It also considers the effect of traffic and materials on pavement performance to precisely predict its future deterioration and subsequent remaining service life. The objective of this research is to develop cost-effective pavement M&R schedules by incorporating (a) the M-E approach into the overall condition index and (b) the estimate of performance indices by considering the factors affecting pavement performance. The research objective will be accomplished by (i) incorporating variability analysis of existing performance evaluation practices and maintenance decisions of pavement, (ii) investigating estimates of existing performance indices, (iii) incorporating the M-E approach: sensitivity analysis, prediction, comparison and verification, (iv) estimating the deterioration model based on traffic characteristics and material types, and (v) identifying cost-effective M&R treatment options through Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA). This study uses the pavement performance data of Ontario highways recorded in the Ministry of Transportation (MTO) pavement database. Precise assessment of pavement condition is a significant part in achieving the research goal. In a PMS, an accurate location reference system is necessary for managing pavement evaluations and maintenance. The length of the pavement section selected for evaluation may have a significant impact on the assessment irrespective of the type of performance indices. In Ontario, the highway section lengths range from 50m to 50,000m. For this reason, a variability in performance evaluation is investigated due to changes in section length. This study considers rut depth, Pavement Condition Index (PCI), and International Roughness Index (IRI) as performance indices. The distributions of these indices are compared by the following groupings of section lengths: 50m, 500m, 1,000m and 10,000m. The variations of performance assessments due to changing section lengths are investigated based on their impact on maintenance decisions. A Monte Carlo simulation is carried out by varying section lengths to estimate probabilities of maintenance work requirements. Results of such empirical investigations reveal that most of the longer sections are evaluated with low rut depth and the shorter sections are evaluated with high rut depth. This Monte Carlo simulation also reveals that 50m sections have a higher probability of maintenance requirements than 500m sections. The method of estimating performance indices is also investigated to identify the requirement of improvement in estimation of the prediction models. Generally, in a PMS, the prediction models of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are estimated by using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) approach. However, the OLS approach can be inefficient if unobserved factors influencing individual KPIs are correlated with each other. For this reason, regression models for KPI predictions are estimated by using an approach called the 'Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR)' method. The M-E approach is used in this study to predict the future distresses by employing mechanistic-empirical models to analyze the impact of traffic, climate, materials and pavement structure. The Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) software uses a three-level hierarchical input to predict performance in terms of IRI, permanent deformation (rut depth), total cracking (reflective and alligator), asphalt concrete (AC) thermal fracture, AC bottom-up fatigue cracking and AC top-down fatigue cracking. However, these inputs have different levels of accuracy, which may have a significant impact on performance prediction. It would be ineffective to put effort for obtaining accuracy at Level 1 for all inputs. For this reason, a sensitivity analysis is carried out based on an experimental design to identify the effect of the accuracy level of inputs on the distresses. Following this, a local sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the main effect of input variables. Interaction effects are also analyzed based on a random combination of the inputs. Since the deterioration of pavement is affected by site-specific traffic, local climate and properties of materials, these variables are carefully considered during the development of the pavement deterioration model to assess overall pavement conditions. The prediction model is developed by using a regression approach considering distresses of the M-E approach. In this study, the deterioration model is estimated for three groups of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) to recognize their individual impact along with properties of materials. The time required for maintenance is also estimated for these categories. The investigations reveal that the expected time to maintenance for overlay with Dense Friction Course (DFC) and Superpave mixes is higher than other Hot Laid (HL) asphalt layers. This will help pavement designers and managers to make informed decisions. The probability of failure is also investigated by a probabilistic approach. With the increasing trend towards M&R of existing pavements, it is essential to make cost-effective use of the M&R budget. As such, identification of associated cost-effective M&R treatments is not always simple in most PMS. For this reason, a LCCA is carried out for alternate pavement treatments using the deterioration model based on traffic levels and material types. Comparing the Net Present Worth (NPW) value of alternative treatment options reveals that the overlay of pavement with DFC is the most cost-effective choice in the case of higher AADT. On the other hand, overlay with Hot Laid-1 (HL-1) is a cost-effective treatment option for highway sections with lower AADT. Although the results are related to the Ontario highway system, this can also be applied elsewhere with similar conditions. The outcome of the empirical investigations will result in the adoption of efficient road M&R programs for highways based on realistic performance predictions, which have significant impact on infrastructure asset management.
Transearch
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2003
Transearch written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Roads categories.
Development Of A New Asphalt Pavement Performance Prediction Model
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1997
Development Of A New Asphalt Pavement Performance Prediction Model written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with categories.
The Ontario Pavement Analysis of Costs system has been in service for Ontario asphalt flexible pavement design and performance prediction since the early 1970s. It uses a deflection-based deterministic model for selecting the best pavement structural design alternative in terms of pavement functional and structural performance and the total life-cycle costs. However, because of the existence of uncertainties and variations in pavement design variables and parameters in the pavement deterioration models, it is not adequate to apply deterministic models to all situations of pavement management. It is therefore necessary to predict pavement performance by employing probabilistic-based models. In this paper, a new concept of system conversion between a deterministic model and a probabilistic model is discussed first. A method by which a deterministic pavement performance prediction model, such as the Ontario asphalt pavement deterioration model, can be converted into a probabilistic model is presented. A transformed probabilistic model is constructed by generating a set of time-related nonhomogeneous Markovian transition probability matrices, which is determined by Monte Carlo simulation. Each of the transition probability matrices characterizes the pavement deterioration rate for the given pavement age and traffic characteristics. A Bayesian technique is then employed to update the predicted pavement performance in terms of the pavement condition state vectors and expected pavement condition state values by integrating additional information such as the actually measured performance data of the pavement.
Evaluating Traffic Capacity And Improvements To Road Geometry
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Author : Christopher J. Hoban
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1987
Evaluating Traffic Capacity And Improvements To Road Geometry written by Christopher J. Hoban and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1987 with Highway capacity categories.
Pavement Management For Airports Roads And Parking Lots
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Author : M.Y. Shahin
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 1994-08-31
Pavement Management For Airports Roads And Parking Lots written by M.Y. Shahin and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994-08-31 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Emphasizing sound, cost-effective management rather than emergency repairs, this comprehensive volume offers practical guidelines on evaluating and managing pavements for airports, roads, and parking lots. The author focuses on the implementation and maintenance of successful management strategies for both network and project levels, with repair techniques also described . Detailed chapters: 1) outline step-by-step procedures for project and network level pavement management 2) illustrate effective cost analysis and budget planning for pavement maintenance 3) guide the reader in the selection and use of non-destructive deflection, roughness measurement, and friction measurement equipment 4) present state-of-the-art pavement rehabilitation and condition prediction techniques 5) demonstrates the Pavement Condition Index (PCI) procedure for airfields and surfaced and unsurfaced roads. Extensive appendices serve as a field manual for identifying all types of pavement distress and their causes, and hundred of photographs facilitate accurate pavement evaluation. Civil and pavement engineers will find complete information on pavement inspection, evaluation, and management in this indispensable reference.
Enhancements In Applied Geomechanics Mining And Excavation Simulation And Analysis
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Author : Adam Sevi
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-07-11
Enhancements In Applied Geomechanics Mining And Excavation Simulation And Analysis written by Adam Sevi and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-07-11 with Science categories.
The book presents a compilation of studies regarding applied geomechanics, mining, and excavation analysis and simulation. The material is suitable for presentation to senior undergraduate and post-graduate students in both mining and geological engineering. It should also be of interest to students of other aspects of Geomechanics and, notably, engineering geologists interested in mining and underground excavation design. Practising mining engineers and rock mechanics engineers involved in mine design may use the book profitably to obtain an appreciation of the current state of engineering knowledge in their area of specialisation. Papers were selected from the 5th GeoChina International Conference on Civil Infrastructures Confronting Severe Weathers and Climate Changes: From Failure to Sustainability, held in July 23-25, 2018 in Hang Zhou, China.
Functional Pavement Design
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Author : Sandra Erkens
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2016-10-14
Functional Pavement Design written by Sandra Erkens and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-10-14 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Functional Pavement Design is a collections of 186 papers from 27 different countries, which were presented at the 4th Chinese-European Workshops (CEW) on Functional Pavement Design (Delft, the Netherlands, 29 June-1 July 2016). The focus of the CEW series is on field tests, laboratory test methods and advanced analysis techniques, and cover analysis, material development and production, experimental characterization, design and construction of pavements. The main areas covered by the book include: - Flexible pavements - Pavement and bitumen - Pavement performance and LCCA - Pavement structures - Pavements and environment - Pavements and innovation - Rigid pavements - Safety - Traffic engineering Functional Pavement Design is for contributing to the establishment of a new generation of pavement design methodologies in which rational mechanics principles, advanced constitutive models and advanced material characterization techniques shall constitute the backbone of the design process. The book will be much of interest to professionals and academics in pavement engineering and related disciplines.
Transportation Research Record
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1998
Transportation Research Record written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with Air travel categories.