Everything Is Predictable
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Everything Is Predictable
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Author : Tom Chivers
language : en
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Release Date : 2024-05-07
Everything Is Predictable written by Tom Chivers and has been published by Simon and Schuster this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-05-07 with Mathematics categories.
A “fascinating, witty, and perspective-shifting” (Oliver Burkeman, New York Times bestselling author) tour of Bayes’s theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author of The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy. At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything. But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence? “Witty, lively, and best of all, extremely nerdy” (Tim Harford, author of The Undercover Economist), Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining and accessible illustration of how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences.
Everything Is Predictable
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Author : Tom Chivers
language : en
Publisher: Hachette UK
Release Date : 2024-04-25
Everything Is Predictable written by Tom Chivers and has been published by Hachette UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-04-25 with Mathematics categories.
SHORTLISTED FOR THE ROYAL SOCIETY TRIVEDI SCIENCE BOOK PRIZE 2024 'Fascinating, witty and perspective-shifting' Oliver Burkeman 'A remarkable book about a remarkable theorem' Will Storr 'Witty, lively and best of all, extremely nerdy. I learned a lot and so will you' Tim Harford Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his theorem was mainly seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice and cards. But its implications soon became clear. Bayes' theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone of rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and forecasting. 'Superforecasters', a group of expert predictors who outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of rationality, and of the human brain. Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.
The Theory That Would Not Die
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Author : Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
language : en
Publisher: Yale University Press
Release Date : 2011-05-17
The Theory That Would Not Die written by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne and has been published by Yale University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-05-17 with Mathematics categories.
"This account of how a once reviled theory, Baye’s rule, came to underpin modern life is both approachable and engrossing" (Sunday Times). A New York Times Book Review Editors’ Choice Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the generations-long human drama surrounding it. McGrayne traces the rule’s discovery by an 18th century amateur mathematician through its development by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years—while practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, such as Alan Turing's work breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II. McGrayne also explains how the advent of computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.
How To Read Numbers
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Author : Tom Chivers
language : en
Publisher: Weidenfeld & Nicolson
Release Date : 2021-03-18
How To Read Numbers written by Tom Chivers and has been published by Weidenfeld & Nicolson this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-18 with Mass media categories.
Statistics rule our world. Every day, most of us will read or watch something in the news that is based on a statistic in some way. Sometimes it'll be obvious - 'X people develop cancer every year' - and sometimes less obvious - 'red wine protects against cancer'. But still, it happens all the time. The trouble is, statistics, when used carelessly, are dangerous, and can bring forth demons. They are an immensely powerful tool for understanding the world; the best tool we have. But in the hands of unscrupulous, careless, or simply clueless people, they can easily be used to tell stories that are misleading or even flat-out false. This book is a guide to how and when to trust them - and perhaps more importantly, when not to.
Bayesian Statistics The Fun Way
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Author : Will Kurt
language : en
Publisher: No Starch Press
Release Date : 2019-07-09
Bayesian Statistics The Fun Way written by Will Kurt and has been published by No Starch Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-09 with Mathematics categories.
Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples. Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples. By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to: - How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief - Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for - Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions - Calculate distributions to see the range of your data - Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.
Predictable Success
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Author : Les McKeown
language : en
Publisher: Greenleaf Book Group
Release Date : 2010
Predictable Success written by Les McKeown and has been published by Greenleaf Book Group this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Business & Economics categories.
Presents advice on ways to inspire confidence in management and achieve lasting success in an organization.
The Future Of Everything
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Author : David Orell
language : en
Publisher: Basic Books
Release Date : 2008-02-26
The Future Of Everything written by David Orell and has been published by Basic Books this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-02-26 with Science categories.
Hurricane Katrina, the internet stock bubble, disease outbreaks -- are these predictable, preventable events, or are we merely the playthings of chaos? A compelling, irreverent, elegantly written history of our future that addresses the most important issues of our time, Apollo's Arrow examines such questions as: How well can we predict the future? Can past discoveries help us understand tomorrow's weather patterns, or tell us what our financial future will look like? Will scientists ever be able to forecast catastrophes, or will we always be at the mercy of Mother Nature, waiting for the next storm, epidemic, or economic crash to thunder through our lives? David Orrell looks back to show us how past scientists (and some charlatans) predicted the future, and where we are on the path to truly understanding what comes next. He asks how today's scientists can claim to predict future climate events when even three-day forecasts prove a serious challenge. Can we predict and control epidemics? Can we accurately foresee our financial future? Or will we only find out about tomorrow when tomorrow arrives?
Bayesian Statistics For Beginners
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Author : Therese M. Donovan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Bayesian Statistics For Beginners written by Therese M. Donovan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with Mathematics categories.
Bayesian statistics is currently undergoing something of a renaissance. At its heart is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. It is an approach that is ideally suited to making initial assessments based on incomplete or imperfect information; as that information is gathered and disseminated, the Bayesian approach corrects or replaces the assumptions and alters its decision-making accordingly to generate a new set of probabilities. As new data/evidence becomes available the probability for a particular hypothesis can therefore be steadily refined and revised. It is very well-suited to the scientific method in general and is widely used across the social, biological, medical, and physical sciences. Key to this book's novel and informal perspective is its unique pedagogy, a question and answer approach that utilizes accessible language, humor, plentiful illustrations, and frequent reference to on-line resources. Bayesian Statistics for Beginners is an introductory textbook suitable for senior undergraduate and graduate students, professional researchers, and practitioners seeking to improve their understanding of the Bayesian statistical techniques they routinely use for data analysis in the life and medical sciences, psychology, public health, business, and other fields.
The Last Invention
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Author : Tom Chivers
language : en
Publisher: Weidenfeld & Nicolson
Release Date : 2019-06-11
The Last Invention written by Tom Chivers and has been published by Weidenfeld & Nicolson this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-11 with categories.
'The AI does not hate you, nor does it love you, but you are made of atoms which it can use for something else' This is a book about AI and AI risk. But it's also more importantly about a community of people who are trying to think rationally about intelligence, and the places that these thoughts are taking them, and what insight they can and can't give us about the future of the human race over the next few years. It explains why these people are worried, why they might be right, and why they might be wrong. It is a book about the cutting edge of our thinking on intelligence and rationality right now by the people who stay up all night worrying about it. Along the way, we discover why we probably don't need to worry about a future AI resurrecting a perfect copy of our minds and torturing us for not inventing it sooner, but we perhaps should be concerned about paperclips destroying life as we know it; how Mickey Mouse can teach us an important lesson about how to programme AI; and why Spock is not as logical as we think he is.
Shackled To Creation
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: Dorrance Publishing
Release Date :
Shackled To Creation written by and has been published by Dorrance Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with categories.