Exchange Rates In South America S Emerging Markets
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Exchange Rates In South America S Emerging Markets
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Author : Luis Molinas Sosa
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2020-07-16
Exchange Rates In South America S Emerging Markets written by Luis Molinas Sosa and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-07-16 with Business & Economics categories.
Since Meese and Rogoff (1983) results showed that no model could outperform a random walk in predicting exchange rates. Many papers have tried to find a forecasting methodology that could beat the random walk, at least for certain forecasting periods. This Element compares the Purchasing Power Parity, the Uncovered Interest Rate, the Sticky Price, the Bayesian Model Averaging, and the Bayesian Vector Autoregression models to the random walk benchmark in forecasting exchange rates between most South American currencies and the US Dollar, and between the Paraguayan Guarani and the Brazilian Real and the Argentinian Peso. Forecasts are evaluated under the criteria of Root Mean Square Error, Direction of Change, and the Diebold-Mariano statistic. The results indicate that the two Bayesian models have greater forecasting power and that there is little evidence in favor of using the other three fundamentals models, except Purchasing Power Parity at longer forecasting horizons.
Exchange Rate Arrangements For Emerging Market Economies
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Author : Felipe Larraín B.
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1999
Exchange Rate Arrangements For Emerging Market Economies written by Felipe Larraín B. and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Foreign exchange categories.
Reviews some empirical evidence on the recent performance of alternative exchange rate arrangements in emerging markets. Examines the concrete circumstances under which either polar regime should be adopted. Studies how to make flexibility work in practice, with special attention to inflation targets and alternativie monetary policy rules. Focuses on the possible role of capital controls as a complementary policy.
Real Exchange Rate Appreciation In Emerging Markets
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Author : Marialuz Moreno Badia
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-01-10
Real Exchange Rate Appreciation In Emerging Markets written by Marialuz Moreno Badia and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-10 with Business & Economics categories.
A number of emerging markets have experienced substantial real exchange rate appreciation in recent years, generating concerns about competitiveness and prompting policymakers to respond with a combination of mitigating policies. This paper shows that fiscal policy can play a role in alleviating these pressures. Using a sample of 28 emerging market economies over 1983-2011, we estimate a dynamic model of the real exchange rate and find that a permanent fiscal adjustment may reduce appreciation pressures over the long term. Furthermore, the composition of public spending matters, with reductions in current spending playing a key role. To illustrate the importance of these findings, the paper focuses on the case of Brazil. Our results suggest that maintaining fiscal discipline while increasing public investment in Brazil is likely to ease real appreciation pressures, highlighting the importance of tackling long-standing budget rigidities.
Collateral Damage
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Author : Mr. Pablo Druck
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-07-29
Collateral Damage written by Mr. Pablo Druck and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-07-29 with Business & Economics categories.
We document that, historically, although stronger growth in the U.S. increases growth in emerging markets, U.S. dollar appreciation (depreciation) cycles—which are highly persistent—mitigate (amplify) the impact on real GDP growth in emerging markets. We argue that the main transmission channel of the latter is through an income effect: as the dollar appreciates, commodity prices fall; weaker commodity prices depress domestic demand via lower real income; real GDP in emerging markets decelerates; and vice versa. These effects hold despite any potential expenditure-switching effect resulting from the relative (to the U.S. dollar) currency depreciation of emerging market economies. We also show the negative effect on emerging markets’ growth of U.S. interest rates beyond the effects of the U.S. real exchange rate and real GDP growth. Therefore, at the time of writing, emerging markets’ growth is expected to remain subdued reflecting, intera alia, the expected persistence of the strong dollar and the anticipated increased in the U.S. interest rates.
Foreign Exchange Intervention In Inflation Targeters In Latin America
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Author : Mr.Marcos d Chamon
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-02-28
Foreign Exchange Intervention In Inflation Targeters In Latin America written by Mr.Marcos d Chamon and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Foreign exchange intervention is widely used as a policy tool, particularly in emerging markets, but many facets of this tool remain limited, especially in the context of flexible exchange rate regimes. The Latin American experience can be informative because some of its largest countries adopted floating exchange rate regimes and inflation targeting while continuing to intervene in foreign exchange markets. This edited volume reviews detailed accounts from several Latin American countries’ central banks, and it provides insight into how and with what aim many interventions were decided and implemented. This book documents the effectiveness of intervention and pays special attention to the role of foreign exchange intervention policy within inflation-targeting monetary frameworks. The main lesson from Latin America’s foreign exchange interventions, in the context of inflation targeting, is that the region has had a considerable degree of success. Transparency and a clear communication policy have been key. For economies that are not highly dollarized, rules-based intervention helped contain financial instability and build international reserves while preserving inflation targets. The Latin American experience can help other countries in the design and implementation of their policies.
Economic And Financial Developments In Latin America
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Author : S. Motamen-Samadian
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2006-06-06
Economic And Financial Developments In Latin America written by S. Motamen-Samadian and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-06-06 with Business & Economics categories.
This book evaluates the economic effect of monetary policies and exchange rate arrangements within Latin America. Using theoretical and empirical studies, the text examines pertinent issues in Argentina, Mexico and Brazil, including the role of currency board, inflation targeting and international prudential regulation in banking crisis reduction.
Exchange Rate Volatility In Emerging Economies
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Author : Abdulkader M. ALJANDALI
language : en
Publisher: Transnational Press London
Release Date : 2018-04-13
Exchange Rate Volatility In Emerging Economies written by Abdulkader M. ALJANDALI and has been published by Transnational Press London this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-04-13 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is a contribution to the knowledge concerning the volatility and forecasting of exchange rates in the emerging markets. It focuses on the exchange rates of the leading trading blocs in that part of the world and examines exchange rates of selected emerging countries across continents in order to explain local and regional variations in exchange rates and the determinants of fluctuations in selected countries in Africa, Asia, Central and Latin America. Exchange rates of countries from the four different regions are investigated separately, followed by analysis within and across regions to identify common patterns of exchange rates fluctuations. Monthly forecasts are generated for a period of 24 months to test the performance of the times series, cointegration and combination techniques used in this book. The results show that exchange rates of countries in the same region behave similarly following a shock to the system. Additionally, exchange rates of countries at the same stage of development albeit in different geographical location (Central America, Southern Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia) share some similarities. In this book, I argue that all exchange rates examined have been volatile. Contents PrefaceChapter I. IntroductionChapter II. Foreign Exchange Forecasting using Macroeconomic VariablesChapter III. Empirical Methods and ApplicationsChapter IV. Times Series ForecastingChapter V. ARDL Cointegration ForecastingChapter VI Combination Forecasting of Exchange RatesChapter VII Conclusions, Summary and Recommendations for Policy MakersAppendix 1 Exchange rate plots over time
Exchange Rate Politics In Latin America
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Author : Carol Wise
language : en
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Release Date : 2011-03-01
Exchange Rate Politics In Latin America written by Carol Wise and has been published by Rowman & Littlefield this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Most of the analysis of Latin American exchange rate problems and policies has concentrated on the economic side of things. This volume instead examines the politics of exchange rate management in four nations that had very different approaches and results. Although the Mexican peso crash, Brazil's currency crisis, Argentina's maintenance of a currency board, and Venezuelan policy responses to the shocks of 1997-98 have had major international financial ramifications, the origins and outcomes of these dramatic events have yet to be analyzed in a single volume. The contributors tie these policy episodes together using solid comparative analysis, in order to better inform the policy debate on these issues.
Exchange Rates In Emerging Markets
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Author : Andrés Velasco
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2000
Exchange Rates In Emerging Markets written by Andrés Velasco and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Foreign exchange rates categories.
Emerging Capital Markets And Globalization
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Author : Augusto de la Torre
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2006-10-20
Emerging Capital Markets And Globalization written by Augusto de la Torre and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-10-20 with Business & Economics categories.
Back in the early 1990s, economists and policy makers had high expectations about the prospects for domestic capital market development in emerging economies, particularly in Latin America. Unfortunately, they are now faced with disheartening results. Stock and bond markets remain illiquid and segmented. Debt is concentrated at the short end of the maturity spectrum and denominated in foreign currency, exposing countries to maturity and currency risk. Capital markets in Latin America look particularly underdeveloped when considering the many efforts undertaken to improve the macroeconomic environment and to reform the institutions believed to foster capital market development. The disappointing performance has made conventional policy recommendations questionable, at best. 'Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization' analyzes where we stand and where we are heading on capital market development. First, it takes stock of the state and evolution of Latin American capital markets and related reforms over time and relative to other countries. Second, it analyzes the factors related to the development of capital markets, with particular interest on measuring the impact of reforms. And third, in light of this analysis, it discusses the prospects for capital market development in Latin America and emerging economies and the implications for the reform agenda.