Expectations Anchoring And Inflation Persistence
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Expectations Anchoring And Inflation Persistence
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Author : Mr.Rudolfs Bems
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-12-11
Expectations Anchoring And Inflation Persistence written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-12-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.
Gains From Anchoring Inflation Expectations Evidence From The Taper Tantrum Shock
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Author : Mr.Rudolfs Bems
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-03-27
Gains From Anchoring Inflation Expectations Evidence From The Taper Tantrum Shock written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-27 with Business & Economics categories.
Many argue that improvements in monetary policy frameworks in emerging market economies over the past few decades, have made them more resilient to external shocks. This paper exploits the May 2013 taper tantrum in the United States to study the reaction of 18 large emerging markets to an external shock, conditioning on their degree of inflation expectations' anchoring. We find that while the tapering announcement negatively affected growth prospects regardless of the level of anchoring, countries with weakly anchored inflation expectations experienced larger exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices, hence comparatively higher inflation. We conclude that efforts to improve the extent of anchoring of inflation expectations in emerging markets pay off, as they ease the trade-off that central banks face when external shocks weaken growth prospects and trigger currency depreciations.
Wage Growth And Inflation In Europe A Puzzle
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Author : Vizhdan Boranova
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-12-20
Wage Growth And Inflation In Europe A Puzzle written by Vizhdan Boranova and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-12-20 with Business & Economics categories.
Wages have been rising faster than productivity in many European countries for the past few years, yet signs of underlying consumer price pressures remain limited. To shed light on this puzzle, this paper examines the historical link between wage growth and inflation in Europe and factors that influence the strength of the passthrough from labor costs to prices. Historically, wage growth has led to higher inflation, but the impact has weakened since 2009. Empirical analysis suggests that the passthrough from wage growth to inflation is significantly lower in periods of subdued inflation and inflation expectations, greater competitive pressures, and robust corporate profitability. Thus the recent pickup in wage growth is likely to have a more muted impact on inflation than in the past.
Brazil
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-11-15
Brazil written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-15 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper assesses the importance of financial market developments for the business cycle in Brazil. The results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages and highlight risks to the recovery going forward. Although some of the rise in credit growth in Brazil can be attributed to financial deepening and rising income levels, it may have implications for economic activity going forward. Cross-country evidence suggests that periods of easy financial conditions can amplify economic fluctuations and possibly lead to adverse economic outcomes. To explore the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle, cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semi-structural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. Financial sector developments are found to be an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations. Financial accelerator models highlight the role of credit and asset prices in shaping the business cycle.
Guatemala
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-05-24
Guatemala written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-05-24 with Business & Economics categories.
Selected Issues
Kingdom Of The Netherlands The Netherlands
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-03-09
Kingdom Of The Netherlands The Netherlands written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Kingdom of the Netherlands–the Netherlands: Selected Issues
Determinants Of Inflation In The Euro Area
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Author : Ms.Florence Jaumotte
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-01-01
Determinants Of Inflation In The Euro Area written by Ms.Florence Jaumotte and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
While inflation differentials in a monetary union can be benign, reflecting a catch-up process, or an adjustment mechanism to asymmetric shocks or different business cycles, they may also indicate distortions related to inefficiencies in domestic product and labor markets that amplify or make more persistent the impact of shocks on inflation. The paper examines the determinants of inflation differentials in the euro area, with emphasis on the role of country specific labor and product market institutions. The analysis uses a traditional backward-looking Phillips curve equation and augments it to explore the role of collective bargaining systems, union density, employment protection, and product market regulation. The model is estimated over a panel dataset of 10 euro area countries over the period 1983-2007. Results show that high employment protection, intermediate coordination of collective bargaining, and high union density increase the persistence of inflation. Oil and raw materials price shocks are also more likely to be accommodated by wage increases when the degree of coordination in collective bargaining is intermediate. These results are robust to different estimation methods, model specifications, and outliers. The paper suggests that reforming labor market institutions may improve the functioning of the euro area by reducing the risk of persistent inflation differentials.
State Dependent Exchange Rate Pass Through
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Author : Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-04-28
State Dependent Exchange Rate Pass Through written by Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-04-28 with Business & Economics categories.
We estimate how the rate of pass-through from the exchange rate to domestic prices varies across states of the economy and depending on the shocks that drive fluctuations in the exchange rate. We confirm several results from the literature and uncover new facts. Drawing on the experience of a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies over the past 30 years, we document that exchange rate pass-through significantly larger during periods of high inflation and elevated uncertainty. Using a novel identification strategy, we also show that pass-through is higher when exchange rate fluctuations are driven by U.S. monetary policy.
World Economic Outlook October 2018
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-10-09
World Economic Outlook October 2018 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-10-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.
Macroeconomics
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Author : Wendy Carlin
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2024
Macroeconomics written by Wendy Carlin and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024 with Business & Economics categories.
At the cutting edge of the subject area, the authors bring the macroeconomics that researchers and policymakers use today into focus. By developing a coherent set of tractable models, the book enables students to explore and make sense of the pressing questions facing global economies. Carlin and Soskice connect students with contemporary research and policy in macroeconomics. The authors' 3-equation model--extended to include the financial system and with an integrated treatment of inequality--equips students with a method they can apply to the enduring challenges stirred by the financial crisis and the Great Recession. Digital formats and resources This title is available for students and institutions to purchase in a variety of formats and is supported by online resources. The e-Book offers a mobile experience and convenient access along with self-assessment activities, multimedia content, and links that offer extra learning support. For more information visit: www.oxfordtextbooks.co.uk/ebooks/ This title is supported by a range of online resource for students including multiple-choice-questions with instant feedback, interactive Animated Analytical Diagrams, access to The Macroeconomic Simulator, web appendices which develop chapters 1, 4, 7, and 18, In addition, lecturers can access PowerPoint slides to accompany each chapter and answers to the problems and questions set in the book.