Expressing Scientific Uncertainty
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Expressing Scientific Uncertainty
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Author : Charles Weiss
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Expressing Scientific Uncertainty written by Charles Weiss and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.
This paper proposes a subjective scale of scientific uncertainty that allows a source of scientific information to express to a lay audience the subjective level of certainty or uncertainty that it associates with a particular assertion of scientific fact, or to represent the range of expert opinion regarding that certainty or uncertainty. The scale is intended as a tool to help increase the precision and rationality of discourse in controversies in which generalists untrained in natural science must judge the merits of opposing arguments in disputes among scientific experts. It complements the quantitative scale of uncertainty, based on Bayesian statistics, used in the recent report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change. Both of these scales are designed for use in situations where the risk probabilities are not precisely known. The scale takes advantage of the fact that there are many more standards of proof recognized in the US legal system beyond the familiar 'criminal' and 'civil' standards of 'beyond a reasonable doubt' and 'preponderance of the evidence', respectively, and that these standards correspond to levels of certainty or uncertainty that constitute acceptable bases for legal decisions in a variety of practical contexts. The levels of certainty or uncertainty corresponding to these standards of proof correspond rather well to the informal scale of certainty used by research scientists in the course of their everyday work, and indeed by ordinary people as they estimate the likelihood of one or another proposition.
Scientific Uncertainty And Information
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Author : Léon Brillouin
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1964
Scientific Uncertainty And Information written by Léon Brillouin and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1964 with Science categories.
An Introduction To Uncertainty In Measurement
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Author : L. Kirkup
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2006-06-01
An Introduction To Uncertainty In Measurement written by L. Kirkup and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-06-01 with Science categories.
Measurement shapes scientific theories, characterises improvements in manufacturing processes and promotes efficient commerce. In concert with measurement is uncertainty, and students in science and engineering need to identify and quantify uncertainties in the measurements they make. This book introduces measurement and uncertainty to second and third year students of science and engineering. Its approach relies on the internationally recognised and recommended guidelines for calculating and expressing uncertainty (known by the acronym GUM). The statistics underpinning the methods are considered and worked examples and exercises are spread throughout the text. Detailed case studies based on typical undergraduate experiments are included to reinforce the principles described in the book. This guide is also useful to professionals in industry who are expected to know the contemporary methods in this increasingly important area. Additional online resources are available to support the book at www.cambridge.org/9780521605793.
An Interpretation Of The Guide To The Expression Of Uncertainty In Measurement
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Author : Raghu Kacker
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2000
An Interpretation Of The Guide To The Expression Of Uncertainty In Measurement written by Raghu Kacker and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Bayesian statistical decision theory categories.
The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) is intended for all scientific and technological measurements in science, engineering, commerce, industry, and regulation. So the GUM must have a clear interpretation. But it mixes up concepts from frequentist and Bayesian statistics in ambiguous ways. Therefore, as presented, the GUM is not clear and is liable to be applied in more than one way, leading to more than one way of expressing uncertainty in measurement. This paper attempts to present a clear and coherent interpretation of the GUM and proposes a simple and widely applicable approach to construct expanded uncertainty intervals. Our hope is that the clarifications and the viewpoints presented here will promote a more consistent use of the GUM and facilitate its application to situations not explicitly covered in the original document.
Uncertainty
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Author : Kostas Kampourakis
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date :
Uncertainty written by Kostas Kampourakis and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with Electronic books categories.
Anti-evolutionists, climate denialists, and anti-vaxxers, among others, question some of the best-established scientific findings by referring to the uncertainties in these areas of research. 'Uncertainty' shows that uncertainty is an inherent feature of science that makes it advance by motivating further research.
Error And Uncertainty In Scientific Practice
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Author : Marcel Boumans
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2015-10-06
Error And Uncertainty In Scientific Practice written by Marcel Boumans and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-10-06 with History categories.
Assessment of error and uncertainty is a vital component of both natural and social science. This edited volume presents case studies of research practices across a wide spectrum of scientific fields. It compares methodologies and presents the ingredients needed for an overarching framework applicable to all.
The Cunning Of Uncertainty
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Author : Helga Nowotny
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2015-11-19
The Cunning Of Uncertainty written by Helga Nowotny and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-19 with Education categories.
Uncertainty is interwoven into human existence. It is a powerful incentive in the search for knowledge and an inherent component of scientific research. We have developed many ways of coping with uncertainty. We make promises, manage risks and make predictions to try to clear the mists and predict ahead. But the future is inherently uncertain - and the mist that shrouds our path an inherent part of our journey. The burning question is whether our societies can face up to uncertainty, learn to embrace it and whether we can open up to a constantly evolving future. In this new book, Helga Nowotny shows how research can thrive at the cusp of uncertainty. Science, she argues, can eventually transform uncertainty into certainty, but into certainty which remains always provisional. Uncertainty is never completely static. It is constantly evolving. It encompasses geological time scales and, at the level of human experience, split-second changes as cells divide. Life and death decisions are taken in the blink of the eye, while human interactions with the natural environment may reveal their impact over millennia. Uncertainty is cunning. It appears at unexpected moments, it shuns the straight line, takes the oblique route and sometimes the unexpected short-cut. As we acknowledge the cunning of uncertainty, its threats retreat. We accept that any scientific inquiry must produce results that are provisional and uncertain. This message is vital for politicians and policy-makers: do not be tempted by small, short-term, controllable gains to the exclusion of uncertain, high-gain opportunities. Wide-ranging in its use of examples and enriched by the author’s experience as President of the European Research Council, one of the world’s leading funding organisations for fundamental research. The Cunning of Uncertainty is a must-read for students and scholars of all disciplines, politicians, policy-makers and anyone concerned with the fundamental role of knowledge and science in our societies today.
Probability And Statistics
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Author : John Tabak
language : en
Publisher: Infobase Publishing
Release Date : 2014-05-14
Probability And Statistics written by John Tabak and has been published by Infobase Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-05-14 with Electronic books categories.
Presents a survey of the history and evolution of the branch of mathematics that focuses on probability and statistics, including useful applications and notable mathematicians in this area.
Measuring Uncertainty Within The Theory Of Evidence
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Author : Simona Salicone
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-04-23
Measuring Uncertainty Within The Theory Of Evidence written by Simona Salicone and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-04-23 with Mathematics categories.
This monograph considers the evaluation and expression of measurement uncertainty within the mathematical framework of the Theory of Evidence. With a new perspective on the metrology science, the text paves the way for innovative applications in a wide range of areas. Building on Simona Salicone’s Measurement Uncertainty: An Approach via the Mathematical Theory of Evidence, the material covers further developments of the Random Fuzzy Variable (RFV) approach to uncertainty and provides a more robust mathematical and metrological background to the combination of measurement results that leads to a more effective RFV combination method. While the first part of the book introduces measurement uncertainty, the Theory of Evidence, and fuzzy sets, the following parts bring together these concepts and derive an effective methodology for the evaluation and expression of measurement uncertainty. A supplementary downloadable program allows the readers to interact with the proposed approach by generating and combining RFVs through custom measurement functions. With numerous examples of applications, this book provides a comprehensive treatment of the RFV approach to uncertainty that is suitable for any graduate student or researcher with interests in the measurement field.
Uncertain Science Uncertain World
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Author : Henry N. Pollack
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2005-06-23
Uncertain Science Uncertain World written by Henry N. Pollack and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-06-23 with Science categories.
Is the world warming due to the Greenhouse Effect? Can nuclear weapon arsenals be relied upon without periodic testing? Is the world running out of oil? What action should be taken against an outbreak of foot-and-mouth or BSE? Why can't scientists provide certain answers to these and many other questions? The uncertainty of science is puzzling. It arises when scientists have more than one answer to a problem or disagree amongst themselves. In this engaging book, Henry Pollack guides the reader through the maze of contradiction and uncertainty, acquainting them with the ways that uncertainty arises in science, how scientists accommodate and make use of uncertainty, and how in the face of uncertainty they reach their conclusions. Taking examples from recent science headlines and every day life, Uncertain Science ... Uncertain World enables the reader to evaluate uncertainty from their own perspectives, and find out more about how science actually works.