Facing The Global Financial Cycle What Role For Policy
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Facing The Global Financial Cycle What Role For Policy
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Author : Nicoletta Batini
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-02-12
Facing The Global Financial Cycle What Role For Policy written by Nicoletta Batini and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-12 with Business & Economics categories.
Abstract In this paper we ask whether countries can influence their exposure to changes in global financial conditions. Specifically, we show that even though we can model cross-country capital flows via a global factor that closely tracks changes in global financial conditions, there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the sensitivity of each country to this same global factor. We then evaluate whether this cross-country heterogeneity can be attributed to different policy choices, including measures of capital flow management, such as capital controls and macroprudential policies. In our main results, we show that higher levels of capital controls and macroprudential policies both dampen the sensitivity to the global factor. Furthermore, we show that countries’ monetary and exchange rate policies can also be successfully deployed. Overall, our results have implications that extend beyond the surge that preceded the 2008 global financial crisis, and that closely resonate in light of the financial disruptions that followed the COVID-19 pandemic.
How Important Is The Global Financial Cycle Evidence From Capital Flows
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Author : Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-09-01
How Important Is The Global Financial Cycle Evidence From Capital Flows written by Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-09-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This study quantifies the importance of a Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) for capital flows. We use capital flow data dis-aggregated by direction and type between 1990Q1 and 2015Q5 for 85 countries, and conventional techniques, models and metrics. Since the GFCy is an unobservable concept, we use two methods to represent it: directly observable variables in center economies often linked to it, such as the VIX; and indirect manifestations, proxied by common dynamic factors extracted from actual capital flows. Our evidence seems mostly inconsistent with a significant and conspicuous GFCy; both methods combined rarely explain more than a quarter of the variation in capital flows. Succinctly, most variation in capital flows does not seem to be the result of common shocks nor stem from observables in a central country like the United States.
How Important Is The Global Financial Cycle
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Author : Eugenio Cerutti
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
How Important Is The Global Financial Cycle written by Eugenio Cerutti and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with Capital movements categories.
This study quantifies the importance of a Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) for capital flows. We use a panel of capital flow data dis-aggregated by direction and type between 1990Q1 and 2015Q5 for 85 countries, and conventional techniques, models and metrics. Since the GFCy is an unobservable concept, we use two methods to represent it: directly observable variables in center economies often linked to it such as the VIX; and indirect manifestations, proxied by common dynamic factors extracted from actual capital flows. Our evidence seems inconsistent with a significant and conspicuous GFCy; both methods combined rarely explain more than a quarter of the variation in capital flows. Succinctly, most variation in capital flows does not seem to be the result of common shocks or stem from observables in a central country like the United States.
The Regulatory Responses To The Global Financial Crisis
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Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-03-14
The Regulatory Responses To The Global Financial Crisis written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-03-14 with Business & Economics categories.
We identify current challenges for creating stable, yet efficient financial systems using lessons from recent and past crises. Reforms need to start from three tenets: adopting a system-wide perspective explicitly aimed at addressing market failures; understanding and incorporating into regulations agents’ incentives so as to align them better with societies’ goals; and acknowledging that risks of crises will always remain, in part due to (unknown) unknowns – be they tipping points, fault lines, or spillovers. Corresponding to these three tenets, specific areas for further reforms are identified. Policy makers need to resist, however, fine-tuning regulations: a “do not harm” approach is often preferable. And as risks will remain, crisis management needs to be made an integral part of system design, not relegated to improvisation after the fact.
Lessons And Policy Implications From The Global Financial Crisis
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Author : Mr.Luc Laeven
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-02-01
Lessons And Policy Implications From The Global Financial Crisis written by Mr.Luc Laeven and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-02-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The ongoing global financial crisis is rooted in a combination of factors common to previous financial crises and some new factors. The crisis has brought to light a number of deficiencies in financial regulation and architecture, particularly in the treatment of systemically important financial institutions, the assessments of systemic risks and vulnerabilities, and the resolution of financial institutions. The global nature of the financial crisis has made clear that financially integrated markets, while offering many benefits, can also pose significant risks, with large real economic consequences. Deep reforms are therefore needed to the international financial architecture to safeguard the stability of an increasingly financially integrated world.
Gross Private Capital Flows To Emerging Markets
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Author : Erlend Nier
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-10-27
Gross Private Capital Flows To Emerging Markets written by Erlend Nier and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-27 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper assesses empirically the key drivers of private capital flows to a large sample of emerging market economies in the last decade. It analyzes the effect of the global financial cycle, measured by the VIX, on capital flows and investigates the role of fundamentals and country characteristics in mitigating or amplifying its effect. Using interaction models, we find the effect of the VIX to be non-linear. For low levels of the VIX, capital flows are driven by fundamental factors. During periods of stress, the VIX becomes the dominant driver of capital flows while other determinants, with the exception of interest rate differentials, lose statistical significance. Our results also suggest that the effect of global financial conditions on gross private capital flows increases with the host country’s level of financial sector development. Finally, our results imply that countries cannot fully insulate themselves from global financial shocks, unless creating a fragmented global financial system.
Global Financial Stability Report October 2019
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-10-16
Global Financial Stability Report October 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-10-16 with Business & Economics categories.
The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.
One Ring To Rule Them All New Evidence On World Cycles
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Author : Eric Monnet
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-09-20
One Ring To Rule Them All New Evidence On World Cycles written by Eric Monnet and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-20 with Business & Economics categories.
We estimate world cycles using a new quarterly dataset of output, credit and asset prices assembled using IMF archives and covering a large set of advanced and emerging economies since 1950. World cycles, both real and financial, exist and are generally driven by US shocks. But their impact is modest for most countries. The global financial cycle is also much weaker when looking at credit rather than asset prices. We also challenge the view that syncronization has increased over time. Although this is true for prices (goods and assets), this not true for quantities (output and credit). The world business and credit cycles were as strong during Bretton Woods (1950–1972) as during the Globalization period (1984-2006). For most countries, the way their output co-moves with the rest of the world has changed little over the last 70 years. We discuss the reasons behind these new findings and their policy implications for small open economies.
Global Financial Stability Report April 2021
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-04-06
Global Financial Stability Report April 2021 written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-04-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Extraordinary policy measures have eased financial conditions and supported the economy, helping to contain financial stability risks. Chapter 1 warns that there is a pressing need to act to avoid a legacy of vulnerabilities while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. Actions taken during the pandemic may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities. The recovery is also expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies. Given large external financing needs, several emerging markets face challenges, especially if a persistent rise in US rates brings about a repricing of risk and tighter financial conditions. The corporate sector in many countries is emerging from the pandemic overindebted, with notable differences depending on firm size and sector. Concerns about the credit quality of hard-hit borrowers and profitability are likely to weigh on the risk appetite of banks. Chapter 2 studies leverage in the nonfinancial private sector before and during the COVID-19 crisis, pointing out that policymakers face a trade-off between boosting growth in the short term by facilitating an easing of financial conditions and containing future downside risks. This trade-off may be amplified by the existing high and rapidly building leverage, increasing downside risks to future growth. The appropriate timing for deployment of macroprudential tools should be country-specific, depending on the pace of recovery, vulnerabilities, and policy tools available. Chapter 3 turns to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the commercial real estate sector. While there is little evidence of large price misalignments at the onset of the pandemic, signs of overvaluation have now emerged in some economies. Misalignments in commercial real estate prices, especially if they interact with other vulnerabilities, increase downside risks to future growth due to the possibility of sharp price corrections.
Managing Elevated Risk
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Author : Iwan J. Azis
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2014-12-11
Managing Elevated Risk written by Iwan J. Azis and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-12-11 with Business & Economics categories.
This book discusses the risks and opportunities that arise in Emerging Asia given the context of a new environment in global liquidity and capital flows. It elaborates on the need to ensure financial and overall economic stability in the region through improved financial regulation and other policy measures to minimize the emergent risks. "Managing Elevated Risk: Global Liquidity, Capital Flows, and Macroprudential Policy—An Asian Perspective" also explores the range of policy options that may be deployed to address the impact of global liquidity on domestic financial and socio-economic conditions including income inequality. The book is primarily aimed at policy makers, financial market regulators and supervisory agencies to help them improve national regulatory systems and to promote harmonization of national regulations and practices in line with global standards. Scholars and researchers will also gain important information and knowledge about the overall impacts of changing global liquidity from the book.