Factor Garch Ito Models For High Frequency Data With Application To Large Volatility Matrix Prediction
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Factor Garch Ito Models For High Frequency Data With Application To Large Volatility Matrix Prediction
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Author : Donggyu Kim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Factor Garch Ito Models For High Frequency Data With Application To Large Volatility Matrix Prediction written by Donggyu Kim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
Several novel large volatility matrix estimation methods have been developed based on the high-frequency financial data. They often employ the approximate factor model that leads to a low-rank plus sparse structure for the integrated volatility matrix and facilitates estimation of large volatility matrices. However, for predicting future volatility matrices, these nonparametric estimators do not have a dynamic structure to implement. In this paper, we introduce a novel Ito diffusion process based on the approximate factor models and call it a factor GARCH-Ito model. We then investigate its properties and propose a quasi-maximum likelihood estimation method for the parameter of the factor GARCH-Ito model. We also apply it to estimating conditional expected large volatility matrices and establish their asymptotic properties. Simulation studies are conducted to validate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimation methods. The proposed method is also illustrated by using data from the constituents of the S&P 500 index and an application to constructing the minimum variance portfolio with gross exposure constraints.
Large Volatility Matrix Inference Based On High Frequency Financial Data
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Large Volatility Matrix Inference Based On High Frequency Financial Data written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
Financial practices often need to estimate an integrated volatility matrix of a large number of assets using noisy high-frequency financial data. This estimation problem is a challenging one for four reasons: (1) high-frequency financial data are discrete observations of the underlying assets' price processes; (2) due to market micro-structure noise, high-frequency data are observed with measurement errors; (3) different assets are traded at different time points, which is the so-called non-synchronization phenomenon in high-frequency financial data; (4) the number of assets may be comparable to or even exceed the observations, and hence many existing estimators of small size volatility matrices become inconsistent when the size of the matrix is close to or larger than the sample size. In this dissertation, we focus on large volatility matrix inference for high-frequency financial data, which can be summarized in three aspects. On the methodological aspect, we propose a new threshold MSRVM estimator of large volatility matrix. This estimator can deal with all the four challenges, and is consistent when both sample size and matrix size go to infinity. On the theoretical aspect, we study the optimal convergence rate for the volatility matrix estimation, by building the asymptotic theory for the proposed estimator and deriving a minimax lower bound for this estimation problem. The proposed threshold MSRVM estimator has a risk matching with the lower bound up to a constant factor, and hence it achieves an optimal convergence rate. As for the applications, we develop a novel approach to predict the volatility matrix. The approach extends the applicability of classical low-frequency models such as matrix factor models and vector autoregressive models to the high-frequency data. With this approach, we pool together the strengths of both classical low-frequency models and new high-frequency estimation methodologies. Furthermore, numerical studies are conducted to test the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators, to support the established asymptotic theories.
Factor Overnight Garch It Models
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Author : Donggyu Kim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2023
Factor Overnight Garch It Models written by Donggyu Kim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023 with categories.
This paper introduces a unified factor overnight GARCH-Itô Models model for large volatility matrix estimation and prediction. To account for whole-day market dynamics, the proposed model has two different instantaneous factor volatility processes for the open-to-close and close-to-open periods, while each embeds the discrete-time multivariate GARCH model structure. To estimate latent factor volatility, we assume the low rank plus sparse structure and employ non-parametric estimation procedures.Then, based on the connection between the discrete-time model structure and the continuous-time diffusion process, we propose a weighted least squares estimation procedure with the non-parametric factor volatility estimator and establish its asymptotic theorems.
Robust High Dimensional Volatility Matrix Estimation For High Frequency Factor Model
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Author : Jianqing Fan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Robust High Dimensional Volatility Matrix Estimation For High Frequency Factor Model written by Jianqing Fan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
High-frequency financial data allow us to estimate large volatility matrices with relatively short time horizon. Many novel statistical methods have been introduced to address large volatility matrix estimation problems from a high-dimensional Ito process with microstructural noise contamination. Their asymptotic theories require sub-Gaussian or some finite high-order moments assumptions for observed log-returns. These assumptions are at odd with the heavy tail phenomenon that is pandemic in financial stock returns and new procedures are needed to mitigate the influence of heavy tails. In this paper, we introduce the Huber loss function with a diverging threshold to develop a robust realized volatility estimation. We show that it has the sub-Gaussian concentration around the volatility with only finite fourth moments of observed log-returns. With the proposed robust estimator as input, we further regularize it by using the principal orthogonal component thresholding (POET) procedure to estimate the large volatility matrix that admits an approximate factor structure. We establish the asymptotic theories for such low-rank plus sparse matrices. The simulation study is conducted to check the finite sample performance of the proposed estimation methods.
A Comparative Study On Large Multivariate Volatility Matrix Modeling For High Frequency Financial Data
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Author : Dongchen Jiang
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
A Comparative Study On Large Multivariate Volatility Matrix Modeling For High Frequency Financial Data written by Dongchen Jiang and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.
Abstract: Modeling and forecasting the volatilities of high-frequency data observed on the prices of financial assets are vibrant research areas in econometrics and statistics. However, most of the available methods are not directly applicable when the number of assets involved is large, due to the lack of accuracy in estimating high-dimensional matrices. This paper compared two methodologies of vast volatility matrix estimation for high-frequency data. One is to estimate the Average Realized Volatility Matrix and to regularize it by banding and thresholding. In this method, first we select grids as pre-sampling frequencies, construct a realized volatility matrix using previous tick method according to each pre-sampling frequency and then take the average of the constructed realized volatility matrices as the stage one estimator, which we call the ARVM estimator. Then we regularize the ARVM estimator to yield good consistent estimators of the large integrated volatility matrix. We consider two regularizations: thresholding and banding. The other is Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) which can be estimated for two stage, where in the rst stage univariate GARCH models are estimated for each residual series, and in the second stage, the residuals are used to estimate the parameters of the dynamic correlation. Asymptotic theory for the two proposed methodologies shows that the estimator are consistent. In numerical studies, the proposed two methodologies are applied to simulated data set and real high-frequency prices from top 100 S & P 500 stocks according to the trading volume over a period of 3 months, 64 trading days in 2013. From the perfomances of estimators, the conclusion is that TARVM estimator performs better than DCC volatility matrix. And its largest eigenvalues are more stable than those of DCC model so that it is more approriable in eigen-based anaylsis.
Handbook Of Hydroinformatics
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Author : Saeid Eslamian
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2022-11-30
Handbook Of Hydroinformatics written by Saeid Eslamian and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-11-30 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Classic Soft-Computing Techniques is the first volume of the three, in the Handbook of HydroInformatics series.? Through this comprehensive, 34-chapters work, the contributors explore the difference between traditional computing, also known as hard computing, and soft computing, which is based on the importance given to issues like precision, certainty and rigor. The chapters go on to define fundamentally classic soft-computing techniques such as Artificial Neural Network, Fuzzy Logic, Genetic Algorithm, Supporting Vector Machine, Ant-Colony Based Simulation, Bat Algorithm, Decision Tree Algorithm, Firefly Algorithm, Fish Habitat Analysis, Game Theory, Hybrid Cuckoo–Harmony Search Algorithm, Honey-Bee Mating Optimization, Imperialist Competitive Algorithm, Relevance Vector Machine, etc.?It is a fully comprehensive handbook providing all the information needed around classic soft-computing techniques. This volume is a true interdisciplinary work, and the audience includes postgraduates and early career researchers interested in Computer Science, Mathematical Science, Applied Science, Earth and Geoscience, Geography, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Water Science, Atmospheric Science, Social Science, Environment Science, Natural Resources, and Chemical Engineering. Key insights from global contributors in the fields of data management research, climate change and resilience, insufficient data problem, etc. Offers applied examples and case studies in each chapter, providing the reader with real world scenarios for comparison. Introduces classic soft-computing techniques, necessary for a range of disciplines.
Statistical Inferences On High Frequency Financial Data And Quantum State Tomography
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Statistical Inferences On High Frequency Financial Data And Quantum State Tomography written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
In this dissertation, we study two topics, the volatility analysis based on the high-frequency financial data and quantum state tomography. In Part I, we study the volatility analysis based on the high-frequency financial data. We first investigate how to estimate large volatility matrices effectively and efficiently. For example, we introduce threshold rules to regularize kernel realized volatility, pre-averaging realized volatility, and multi-scale realized volatility. Their convergence rates are derived under sparsity on the large integrated volatility matrix. To account for the sparse structure well, we employ the factor-based Itô processes and under the proposed factor-based model, we develop an estimation scheme called “blocking and regularizing". Also, we establish a minimax lower bound for the eigenspace estimation problem and propose sparse principal subspace estimation methods by using the multi-scale realized volatility matrix estimator or the pre-averaging realized volatility matrix estimator. Finally, we introduce a unified model, which can accommodate both continuous-time Itô processes used to model high-frequency stock prices and GARCH processes employed to model low-frequency stock prices, by embedding a discrete-time GARCH volatility in its continuous-time instantaneous volatility. We adopt realized volatility estimators based on high-frequency financial data and the quasi-likelihood function for the low-frequency GARCH structure to develop parameter estimation methods for the combined high-frequency and low-frequency data. In Part II, we study the quantum state tomography with Pauli measurements. In the quantum science, the dimension of the quantum density matrix usually grows exponentially with the size of the quantum system, and thus it is important to develop effective and efficient estimation methods for the large quantum density matrices. We study large density matrix estimation methods and obtain the minimax lower bound under some sparse structures, for example, (i) the coefficients of the density matrix with respect to the Pauli basis are sparse; (ii) the rank is low; (iii) the eigenvectors are sparse. Their performances may depend on the sparse structure, and so it is essential to choose appropriate estimation methods according to the sparse structure. In light of this, we study how to conduct hypothesis tests for the sparse structure. Specifically, we propose hypothesis test procedures and develop central limit theorems for each test statistics. A simulation study is conducted to check the finite sample performances of proposed estimation methods and hypothesis tests.
Structured Volatility Matrix Estimation For Non Synchronized High Frequency Financial Data
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Author : Jianqing Fan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Structured Volatility Matrix Estimation For Non Synchronized High Frequency Financial Data written by Jianqing Fan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
Recently several large volatility matrix estimation procedures have been developed for factor-based Ito processes whose integrated volatility matrix consists of low-rank and sparse matrices. Their performance depends on the accuracy of input volatility matrix estimators. When estimating co-volatilities based on high-frequency data, one of the crucial challenges is non-synchronization for illiquid assets, which makes their co-volatility estimators inaccurate. In this paper, we study how to estimate the large integrated volatility matrix without using co-volatilities of illiquid assets. Specifically, we pretend that the co-volatilities for illiquid assets are missing, and estimate the low-rank matrix using a matrix completion scheme with a structured missing pattern. To further regularize the sparse volatility matrix, we employ the principal orthogonal complement thresholding method (POET). We also investigate the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimation procedure and demonstrate its advantages over using co-volatilities of illiquid assets. The advantages of our methods are also verified by an extensive simulation study and illustrated by high-frequency financial data for constituents of the S&P 500 index.
Volatility Estimation With Financial Data
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Volatility Estimation With Financial Data written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.
Modeling and estimating volatility plays a crucial role in financial practice. Devoted efforts are made to investigate this topic using both low-frequency and high-frequency financial data. Traditionally, volatility modeling and analysis are based on either historical price data or option data. Finance theory shows that option prices heavily depend on the underlying stocks' prices, and thus the two kinds of data are related. This thesis explores the approach that combines both stock price data and option data to perform the statistical analysis of volatility. We investigate the Black-Scholes model and an exponential GARCH model and derive the relationship among the Fisher information for volatility estimation based on stock price data alone or option data alone as well as joint volatility estimation for combining stock price data and option data. Under the Block-Scholes model, asymptotic theory for the joint estimation is established, and a simulation study was conducted to check finite sample performances of the proposed joint estimator. Being more accessible than ever, high-frequency data have provided researchers and practitioners with incredible tools to investigate assets pricing and market dynamics. Non-synchronous observations, microstructure noise, and complex pricing models are challenges coming along with high-frequency data. Moreover, large volatility matrix estimation is involved in many finance practices and encounters "curse of dimensionality". Although it is widely used in large covariance estimation, imposing sparsity assumption on the entire volatility matrix is not reasonable in financial practice. In fact, due to the existence of common factors, assets are widely correlated with each other and their volatility matrix is not sparse. In this thesis, we focus on incorporating the factor influence in asset price modeling and volatility matrix estimation. We propose to model asset price using a factor-based diffusion process. The idea is that assets' prices are governed by a common factor, and that assets with similar characteristics share the same association with the factor. Under the proposed factor-based model, we developed an estimation scheme called "Blocking and Regularizing", which deals with all of the four changeless. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator are studied, while its finite sample performance is tested via extensive numerical studies to support theoretical results
The Elements Of Financial Econometrics
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Author : Jianqing Fan
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2017-03-23
The Elements Of Financial Econometrics written by Jianqing Fan and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-03-23 with Business & Economics categories.
A compact, master's-level textbook on financial econometrics, focusing on methodology and including real financial data illustrations throughout. The mathematical level is purposely kept moderate, allowing the power of the quantitative methods to be understood without too much technical detail.