Financial And Business Cycles In Brazil
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Financial And Business Cycles In Brazil
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Author : Mr.Ivo Krznar
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-01-24
Financial And Business Cycles In Brazil written by Mr.Ivo Krznar and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-24 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper explores the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle in Brazil. Cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semistructural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. The results show that Brazil is now in the downturn phase of the financial cycle. Moreover, the results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages and highlight risks to the recovery going forward.
Brazil
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-11-15
Brazil written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-15 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper assesses the importance of financial market developments for the business cycle in Brazil. The results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages and highlight risks to the recovery going forward. Although some of the rise in credit growth in Brazil can be attributed to financial deepening and rising income levels, it may have implications for economic activity going forward. Cross-country evidence suggests that periods of easy financial conditions can amplify economic fluctuations and possibly lead to adverse economic outcomes. To explore the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle, cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semi-structural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. Financial sector developments are found to be an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations. Financial accelerator models highlight the role of credit and asset prices in shaping the business cycle.
Brazil
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-11-15
Brazil written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Brazil: Selected Issues
The Sources Of Macroeconomic Fluctuations In Developing Countries
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Author : Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1996-02-01
The Sources Of Macroeconomic Fluctuations In Developing Countries written by Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996-02-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper studies the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries using a structural VAR approach. Identification of the sources is achieved using long-run restrictions derived from a theoretical model of a small open economy encompassing a large number of macroeconomic paradigms; the short-run dynamics are unrestricted. This framework is applied to Brazil and Korea. The results confirm that supply shocks are the main source of GDP fluctuations, even in the short run. Aggregate demand shocks are shown to be important in the short run in Brazil, but not in Korea. External shocks explain a small fraction of the variance of output, whereas the real exchange rate is driven mainly by fiscal shocks. Nominal shocks appear to have little impact on output and the real exchange rate.
Common Factors In Latin America S Business Cycles
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Author : Luis Catão
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Common Factors In Latin America S Business Cycles written by Luis Catão and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.
This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cycle chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that all four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cycle and persistence relative to benchmark countries, and that such volatility has been time-varying, with important differences across policy regimes. We also uncover a sizeable common factor across the four economies which has greatly limited scope for regional risk sharing.
A Closer Look At Sectoral Financial Linkages In Brazil I
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Author : Ms.Izabela Karpowicz
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-03-02
A Closer Look At Sectoral Financial Linkages In Brazil I written by Ms.Izabela Karpowicz and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Understanding the interplay between firms’ balance sheets and the macro-economic environment is important for understanding of the Brazilian economy. A close examination of developments in the nonfinancial corporate sector up to the early 2015 reveals weak equity growth, declining profitability, and rising leverage. The empirical work suggests that adverse shocks to financial variables lead to weaker real GDP growth in Brazil through their effect on corporate leverage, borrowing costs, and default frequencies. An estimation based on a DSGE model with financial frictions indicates that the recent economic downturn in Brazil is largely driven by a decrease in total factor productivity and by negative financial shocks.
Emerging Economy Business Cycles
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Author : Rudrani Bhattacharya
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-05-22
Emerging Economy Business Cycles written by Rudrani Bhattacharya and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-05-22 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper analyses the extent to which financial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affect business cycles in emerging economies. Using a s mall open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy that faces trade shocks, business cycle volatility reduces. For an economy with limited financial openness, and a relatively open trade account, a model with exogenous terms of trade shocks is able to replicate the features of the business cycle.
Business Cycles In Brics
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Author : Sergey Smirnov
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-08-15
Business Cycles In Brics written by Sergey Smirnov and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-08-15 with Business & Economics categories.
This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three and four present national business tendency surveys and composite cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other emerging countries.
Common Factors In Latin America S Business Cycles
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Author : Marco Aiolfi
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2006-02-01
Common Factors In Latin America S Business Cycles written by Marco Aiolfi and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-02-01 with categories.
This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cycle chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that all four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cycle and persistence relative to benchmark countries, and that such volatility has been time-varying, with important differences across policy regimes. We also uncover a sizeable common factor across the four economies which has greatly limited scope for regional risk sharing.
Brazil
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Author : Mr.Antonio Spilimbergo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-03-14
Brazil written by Mr.Antonio Spilimbergo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-14 with Business & Economics categories.
Brazil is at crossroads, emerging slowly from a historic recession that was preceded by a huge economic boom. Reasons for the historic bust following a boom are manifold. Policy mistakes were an important contributory factor, and included the pursuit of countercyclical policies, introduced to deal with the effects of the global financial crisis, beyond the point where they were helpful. More fundamentally, it reflects longstanding structural weaknesses plaguing the economy, that also help explain Brazil’s uninspiring growth performance over the past four decades.