Financial Shocks And Inflation Dynamics
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Financial Shocks And Inflation Dynamics
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Author : Angela Abbate
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Financial Shocks And Inflation Dynamics written by Angela Abbate and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
Inflation Dynamics During The Financial Crisis
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Author : Federal Reserve Board
language : en
Publisher: CreateSpace
Release Date : 2015-04-10
Inflation Dynamics During The Financial Crisis written by Federal Reserve Board and has been published by CreateSpace this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-04-10 with categories.
Firms with limited internal liquidity significantly increased prices in 2008, while their liquidity unconstrained counterparts slashed prices. Differences in the firms' price-setting behavior were concentrated in sectors likely characterized by customer markets. We develop a model, in which firms face financial frictions, while setting prices in a customer-markets setting. Financial distortions create an incentive for firms to raise prices in response to adverse demand or financial shocks. These results reflect the firms' reaction to preserve internal liquidity and avoid accessing external finance, factors that strengthen the countercyclical behavior of markups and attenuate the response of inflation to fluctuations in output.
Inflation And Deflation In East Asia
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Author : Frank Rövekamp
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2023-05-13
Inflation And Deflation In East Asia written by Frank Rövekamp and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-05-13 with Business & Economics categories.
In light of the deflationary trends following the 2008/2009 financial crisis, as well as the return of inflation triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, this book offers insights into price stability issues in various East Asian countries. Leading scholars from the fields of economics and law as well as central bank practitioners present case studies on Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. The contributors address topics such as quantitative monetary easing, the role of global and domestic shocks on inflation dynamics, and other monetary policy issues. In doing so, the book goes into detail about the individual forces and effects of deflation and inflation and compares the Asian experience with that of the Eurozone.
Communication Of Central Bank Thinking And Inflation Dynamics
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Author : Man-Keung Tang
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-08-01
Communication Of Central Bank Thinking And Inflation Dynamics written by Man-Keung Tang and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-08-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper studies the role of central bank communication of its economic assessment in shaping inflation dynamics. Imperfect information about the central bank's assessment - or the basis for monetary policy decisions - could complicate the private sector's learning about its policy response function. We show how clear central bank communication, which facilitates agents' understanding of policy reasoning, could bring about less volatile inflation and interest rate dynamics, and afford the authorities with greater policy flexibility. We then estimate a simple monetary model to fit the Mexican economy, and use the suggested paramters to illustrate the model's quantitative implications in scenarios where the timing, nature and persistence of shocks are uncertain.
Understanding Inflation Dynamics The Role Of Global Shocks In Cemac
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Author : Johanna Tiedemann
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-08
Understanding Inflation Dynamics The Role Of Global Shocks In Cemac written by Johanna Tiedemann and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.
As in the rest of the world, inflation in CEMAC surged more quickly and persistently than expected during the 2021–23 period. This paper examines the drivers of inflation dynamics and the contribution of global shocks to inflation persistence in CEMAC. We use a Phillips curve framework combined with the local projections method. Our results confirm the prominent role of global factors in driving inflation dynamics. Global commodity food and oil price fluctuations, and shipping costs are the main factors explaining the large variability in headline inflation. Further, we find that global price shocks have sizable and persistent effects on domestic headline inflation, with differences in the magnitude and speed of pass-through. The pass-through from commodity food price fluctuations to headline inflation is higher and more persistent than that of other global price shocks, reflecting the large share of food in the consumption baskets, which makes inflation more vulnerable to direct effects of international food shocks, but also larger second-round effects.
Did The Global Financial Crisis Break The U S Phillips Curve
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Author : Stefan Laseen
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-07-05
Did The Global Financial Crisis Break The U S Phillips Curve written by Stefan Laseen and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-07-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In this empirical paper, we use multivariate, possibly time-varying, time-series models and show that changes in shocks are a more salient feature of the data than changes in coefficients. Hence, the GFC did not break the Phillips curve. By estimating variations of a regime-switching model, we show that allowing for regime switching solely in coefficients of the policy rule would maximize the fit. Additionally, using a data-rich reduced-form model we compute conditional forecast scenarios. We show that financial and external variables have the highest forecasting power for inflation and unemployment, post-GFC.
Monetary Policy And Inflation Dynamics In Asean Economies
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Author : Geraldine Dany-Knedlik
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-06-21
Monetary Policy And Inflation Dynamics In Asean Economies written by Geraldine Dany-Knedlik and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-21 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.
Inflation Dynamics And The Great Recession
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Author : Laurence M. Ball
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-06-01
Inflation Dynamics And The Great Recession written by Laurence M. Ball and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.
European Inflation Dynamics
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Author : Jordi Galí
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2001
European Inflation Dynamics written by Jordi Galí and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with Economics categories.
We provide evidence on the fit of the New Phillips Curve (NPQ for the Euro area over the period 1970-1998, and use it as a tool to compare the characteristics of European inflation dynamics with those observed in the U.S. We also analyze the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs, as well as that of its two main components, namely, labor productivity and real wages. Some of the findings can be summarized as follows: (a) the NPC fits Euro area data very well, possibly better than U.S. data, (b) the degree of price stickiness implied by the estimates is substantial, but in line with survey evidence and U.S. estimates, (c) inflation dynamics in the Euro area appear to have a stronger forward- looking component (i.e., less inertia) than in the U.S., (d) labor market frictions, as manifested in the behavior of the wage markup, appear to have played a key role in shaping the behavior of marginal costs and, consequently, inflation in Europe.
On The Drivers Of Inflation In Sub Saharan Africa
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Author : Anh D. M. Nguyen
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-08-05
On The Drivers Of Inflation In Sub Saharan Africa written by Anh D. M. Nguyen and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-08-05 with Business & Economics categories.
The perception that inflation dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by supply shocks implies a limited role for monetary policy in influencing inflation in the short run. SSA’s rapid growth, its integration with the global economy, changes in the policy frameworks, among others, in the last decade suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed. We quantitatively analyze inflation dynamics in SSA using a Global VAR model, which incorporates trade and financial linkages among economies, as well as the role of regional and global demand and inflationary spillovers. We find that in the past 25 years, the main drivers of inflation have been domestic supply shocks and shocks to exchange rate and monetary variables; but that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks to inflation has fallen. Domestic demand pressures as well as global shocks, and particularly shocks to output, however, have played a larger role in driving inflation over the last decade. We also show that country characteristics matter—the extent of oil and food imports, vulnerability to weather shocks, economic importance of agriculture, trade openness and policy regime, among others, help in explaining the role of shocks.