First Strike Stability
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Deterrence And First Strike Stability In Space
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Author : Forrest E. Morgan
language : en
Publisher: RAND Corporation
Release Date : 2010
Deterrence And First Strike Stability In Space written by Forrest E. Morgan and has been published by RAND Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Space stability appears to be eroding as a growing number of states acquire the ability to degrade or destroy U.S. space assets. The United States needs a coordinated national space deterrence strategy designed to operate on both sides of a potential adversary's cost-benefit decision calculus. Future research will determine the most effective and affordable mix of strategies, policies, and systems for strengthening space deterrence.
First Strike Stability And Strategic Defenses
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Author : Glenn A. Kent
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1990
First Strike Stability And Strategic Defenses written by Glenn A. Kent and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with First strike (Nuclear strategy) categories.
A pressing issue facing the United States in the early 1990s centers on whether, and for what strategic purposes, the United States should deploy nationwide ballistic missile defenses (BMD). One argument is that such defenses could enhance stability. This report extends the methodology developed in R-3765 to assess the effect of BMD deployments on first-strike stability. The authors conclude that (1) first-strike stability is currently robust; (2) deployment of strategic nationwide BMD by either superpower in competition with the other's strategic offenses generally erodes first-strike stability; (3) there might be a level at which U.S. and Soviet BMD could effectively defend against third-country ballistic missile attacks, unauthorized attacks, and accidental launches, without being so robust that it would undermine first-strike stability; (4) the buildup of U.S. defenses during Phase I deployment seems to exceed this level; and (5) maintaining effective bomber forces on both sides would be critical to any attempt to move from offense dominance to defense dominance.
Strategic Defenses And First Strike Stability
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Author : Dean Wilkening
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 1986
Strategic Defenses And First Strike Stability written by Dean Wilkening and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1986 with Ballistic missile defenses categories.
The impact of strategic defenses on stability is a central theme in the Strategic Defense Initiative debate. This report examines the effects of defenses on first-strike stability. It is principally concerned with assessing first-strike stability during the transition from an offense-dominated strategic balance to a defense-dominated balance. It also examines the implications of various offensive and defensive force structures. The findings suggest that (1) first-strike instability during the defense transition can be minimized by careful force planning; (2) the most stable defense transition occurs when the ballistic missile defense transition is completed before significant levels of air defense are deployed; (3) arms control efforts will not necessarily reduce potential first-strike instabilities unless each side's counterforce capability is reduced; (4) asymmetries in each side's ability to suppress the opponent's defenses can lead to instabilities during, and after, the defense transition; and (5) biased perceptions make the defense transition either more or less stable, depending on the nature of the bias.
First Strike Stability
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Author : Stephen J. Cimbala
language : en
Publisher: Praeger
Release Date : 1990-08-24
First Strike Stability written by Stephen J. Cimbala and has been published by Praeger this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990-08-24 with History categories.
The lifting of the Iron Curtain in response to pressures for democratic reform in the Eastern Bloc nations and the refusal of General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev to use the Red Army to police countries of the Warsaw Pact have led to a radically changed international environment. Preceded by over 40 years of peace and stability, unprecedented in the history of modern Europe, the Cold War ended in a climate of upheaval and uncertainty. This volume addresses issues associated with the political and military vacuum created by recent events and explores in depth a problem of military uncertainty: first strike stability. Stephen J. Cimbala argues that war in a system undergoing rapid change, including reductions in forces and political realignment, remains disturbingly possible due to the unforeseeable, inadvertent, and uncontrollable uncertainties that plague decision making and military planning in Washington, Moscow, and other international power centers, hence, first strike instability. This timely volume clarifies the kind of bargain superpowers and their allies have made in regard to nuclear weapons and command systems. Cimbala provides enhanced understandings of the concept and practice of nuclear deterrence and of first strike stability in a post-Cold War world that can help direct arms control efforts toward those areas that are most important to actual security. Broad aspects of the problem of first strike stability are set forth in the first chapter which also anticipates some of the connections between political and military levels of analysis discussed in the conclusion. Chapter two introduces the concepts of the state of nature and the state of war, explains how they apply to the problem of first strike stability, and why the possibility of war, including nuclear war, cannot be excluded. Chapter three focuses on the New Soviet Thinking and why the probability of accidental and inadvertent war and escalation is not affected by reducing the levels of armaments alone. Chapter four emphasizes the problems facing the United States and NATO, and the approaches to escalation control which NATO assumes will be implemented, should deterrence fail. The results of the theoretical and administrative confusion over approaches to escalation control, outlined in chapter four, reappear in chapter five in the form of problems for war termination. The controversial issue of eliminating nuclear deterrence, with emphasis on the proposal for elimination by preclusive antinuclear strategic defenses is the focus of chapter six. The final chapter reviews the implications of the preceding chapters and arrives at some startling conclusions. Scholars and students of military affairs, political scientists, government officials, and members of the military establishment will find the up-to-the-minute information and judgements contained in First Strike Stability invaluable aids to their own decision making on this profoundly important world issue.
Studying First Strike Stability With Knowledge Based Models Of Human Decision Making
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Author : Paul K. Davis
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 1989-01-01
Studying First Strike Stability With Knowledge Based Models Of Human Decision Making written by Paul K. Davis and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989-01-01 with Political Science categories.
First-strike stability depends on the improbability of crises and the improbability that crises would result in first strikes. This study focuses on the latter criterion, which in turn depends on crisis decisionmaking by human beings. The report argues that efforts to understand and improve first-strike stability should be guided by a formal theory of human decisionmaking that accounts for behavioral factors such as mindset, desperation, fatalism, perceptions, and fears. The author identifies three principal mechanisms for improving first-strike stability: (1) improve force-posture stability; (2) review and adjust nuclear policies and doctrine, and the way they are discussed; and (3) improve the likely quality of crisis decisionmaking through efforts involving education, exercises, and staffing.
Studying First Strike Stability With Knowledge Based Models Of Human Decisionmaking
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1989
Studying First Strike Stability With Knowledge Based Models Of Human Decisionmaking written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989 with categories.
The RAND Corporation and the RAND/UCLA Center for the Study of Soviet International Behavior (CSSIB) have a joint project for the Carnegie Corporation entitled Avoiding Nuclear War: Managing Conflict in the Nuclear Age. This project has two broad objectives: to understand better the process of escalation from peace through general nuclear war; and to identify and assess, while protecting vital national interests, unilateral and cooperative measures that might inhibit unintended escalation or improve prospects for reversing or controlling escalation once it has begun. This report contributes to the larger project by describing efforts of the author and colleagues in the RAND Strategy Assessment center to develop and use knowledge based analytic models of national-command-level decisionmaking for better understanding and communicating issues of deterrence, escalation, and war termination. The intended audience includes researchers and government figures interested in crisis decision making, related command and control problems, and a framework for thinking about first strike stability that integrates both force-posture factors and behavioral factors.
First Strike
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Author : Robert C. Aldridge
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1983
First Strike written by Robert C. Aldridge and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1983 with History categories.
A former design engineer for Lockheed presents a comprehensive survey of U.S. and Soviet nuclear forces and strategic doctrines that exposes the U.S. military's dangerous bid for first strike capability and describes corporate imperatives for perpetuating the arms race and circumventing arms control.
Strategic Stability In The Post Cold War World And The Future Of Nuclear Disarmament
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Author : Melvin L. Best, Jr.
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-04-17
Strategic Stability In The Post Cold War World And The Future Of Nuclear Disarmament written by Melvin L. Best, Jr. and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-17 with Social Science categories.
This Report contains a Consensus Report and the papers submitted to the April 6 -10, 1995 NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Strategic Stability In The Post-Cold War World And The Future Of Nuclear Disarmament, held in Washington D. C. , United States Of America of at The Airlie Conference Center. The workshop was sponsored by the NATO Division Scientific and Environmental Affairs as part of its ongoing outreach programme to widen and deepen scientific contacts between NATO member countries and the Cooperation Partner countries of the former Warsaw Treaty Organization. The participants recognize that the collapse of the former Soviet Union has left a conceptual vacuum in the definition of a new world order. Never before have the components of world order all changed so rapidly, so deeply, or so globally. As Henry Kissinger points out, the emergence of the new world order will have answered three fundamental questions:" What are the basic units of the international order? What are their means of interacting? and What are the goals on behalf of which they interact? " The main question is whether the establishment and maintenance of an international system will turn out to be a conscious design, or the outgrowth of a test of strength. The concept of a planning framework that could shape or govern these interactions is emerging and may now be at hand. Capturing this emerging framework is the thrust of this NATO-sponsored Advanced Research Workshop.
Stability And Strategic Defenses
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Author : Jack N. Barkenbus
language : en
Publisher: Paragon House Publishers
Release Date : 1989
Stability And Strategic Defenses written by Jack N. Barkenbus and has been published by Paragon House Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989 with Ballistic missile defenses categories.
The End Of Strategic Stability
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Author : Lawrence Rubin
language : en
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
Release Date : 2018-09-03
The End Of Strategic Stability written by Lawrence Rubin and has been published by Georgetown University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-03 with Political Science categories.
During the Cold War, many believed that the superpowers shared a conception of strategic stability, a coexistence where both sides would compete for global influence but would be deterred from using nuclear weapons. In actuality, both sides understood strategic stability and deterrence quite differently. Today’s international system is further complicated by more nuclear powers, regional rivalries, and nonstate actors who punch above their weight, but the United States and other nuclear powers still cling to old conceptions of strategic stability. The purpose of this book is to unpack and examine how different states in different regions view strategic stability, the use or non-use of nuclear weapons, and whether or not strategic stability is still a prevailing concept. The contributors to this volume explore policies of current and potential nuclear powers including the United States, Russia, China, India, Iran, Israel, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia. This volume makes an important contribution toward understanding how nuclear weapons will impact the international system in the twenty-first century and will be useful to students, scholars, and practitioners of nuclear weapons policy.