Fiscal Spillovers In The Euro Area Letting The Data Speak
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Fiscal Spillovers In The Euro Area Letting The Data Speak
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Author : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-15
Fiscal Spillovers In The Euro Area Letting The Data Speak written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-15 with Business & Economics categories.
We estimate a panel VAR model that captures cross-country, dynamic interlinkages for 10 euro area countries using quarterly data for the period 1999-2016. Our analysis suggests that fiscal spillovers are significant and tend to be larger for countries with close trade and financial links as well, as for fiscal shocks originating from larger countries. The current account appears to be the main channel of transmission, although strong trade integration among countries in the euro area and spillback effects tend to zero-out the net trade impact in some cases. A subsample analysis shows that the effects of fiscal policy have changed over time, with larger estimated domestic multipliers and spillovers between 2011 and 2014.
Cross Country Spillovers Of Fiscal Consolidations In The Euro Area
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Author : Mr.Tigran Poghosyan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-06-28
Cross Country Spillovers Of Fiscal Consolidations In The Euro Area written by Mr.Tigran Poghosyan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-06-28 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper revisits the issue of cross-country spillovers from fiscal consolidations using an innovative empirical methodology. We find evidence in support of fiscal spillovers in 10 euro area countries. Fiscal consolidation in one country not only reduces domestic output (direct effect), but also the output of other member countries (indirect/spillover effect). Fiscal spillovers are larger for: (i) more closely located and economically integrated countries, and (ii) fiscal shocks originating from relatively larger countries. On average, 1 percent of GDP fiscal consolidation in 10 euro area countries reduces the combined output by 0.6 percent on impact, out of which half is driven by indirect effects from fiscal spillovers. The impact peters out and becomes insignificant over the medium-term. It is largely driven by tax measures, which have a relatively stronger effect on output compared to expenditure measures. The results are robust to alternative measures of bilateral links across countries.
Fiscal Spillovers In The Euro Area Letting The Data Speak
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Author : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-15
Fiscal Spillovers In The Euro Area Letting The Data Speak written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-15 with Business & Economics categories.
We estimate a panel VAR model that captures cross-country, dynamic interlinkages for 10 euro area countries using quarterly data for the period 1999-2016. Our analysis suggests that fiscal spillovers are significant and tend to be larger for countries with close trade and financial links as well, as for fiscal shocks originating from larger countries. The current account appears to be the main channel of transmission, although strong trade integration among countries in the euro area and spillback effects tend to zero-out the net trade impact in some cases. A subsample analysis shows that the effects of fiscal policy have changed over time, with larger estimated domestic multipliers and spillovers between 2011 and 2014.
Fiscal Expenditure Spillovers In The Euro Area
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Author : Mario Alloza
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Fiscal Expenditure Spillovers In The Euro Area written by Mario Alloza and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
The paper describes the main transmission channels of the spillovers of national fiscal policies to other countries within the euro area and investigates their magnitude using different models. In the context of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), fiscal spillovers are relevant for the accurate assessment of the cyclical outlook in euro area countries, as well as in the debates on a coordinated change in the euro area fiscal stance and on a euro area fiscal capacity. The paper focuses on spillovers from expenditure-based expansions by presenting two complementary exercises. The first is an empirical investigation of spillovers based on a new, long quarterly dataset for the largest euro area countries and on new estimates based on annual data for a panel of 11 euro area countries. The second uses a multi-country general equilibrium model with a rich fiscal specification and the capacity to analyse trade spillovers. Fiscal spillovers are found to be heterogeneous but generally positive among euro area countries. The reaction of interest rates to fiscal expansions is an important determinant of the magnitude of spillovers.
Fiscal Policies In High Debt Euro Area Countries
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Author : Antonella Cavallo
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-11-15
Fiscal Policies In High Debt Euro Area Countries written by Antonella Cavallo and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-15 with Business & Economics categories.
This book explores the role of national fiscal policies in a selected group of Euro-area countries under the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). In particular, the authors characterize the response of output to fiscal consolidations and expansions in the small Euro-area open economies affected by high public and private debt. It is shown that the macroeconomic outcome of fiscal shocks is strongly related to debt levels. The Euro-area countries included in the investigation are Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Portugal, over the sample period 1999–2016, i.e., the EMU period. The main econometric tools used in this research are structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models, including panel VAR models. The available literature relating to the subject is also fully reviewed. A further closely investigated topic is the potential spillover effects of German fiscal policies on the selected small Euro-area economies. Moreover, in the perspective of the evolution of the Euro Area towards a full Monetary and Fiscal Union, the authors study the effects of area-wide government spending shocks on aggregate output and other macroeconomic variables during the EMU period. The closing chapter of the book considers evidence on the consequences of austerity policies for European labour markets during recent years.
International Fiscal Financial Spillovers The Effect Of Fiscal Shocks On Cross Border Bank Lending
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Author : Sangyup Choi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-07-12
International Fiscal Financial Spillovers The Effect Of Fiscal Shocks On Cross Border Bank Lending written by Sangyup Choi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper sheds new light on the degree of international fiscal-financial spillovers by investigating the effect of domestic fiscal policies on cross-border bank lending. By estimating the dynamic response of U.S. cross-border bank lending towards the 45 recipient countries to exogenous domestic fiscal shocks (both measured by spending and revenue) between 1990Q1 and 2012Q4, we find that expansionary domestic fiscal shocks lead to a statistically significant increase in cross-border bank lending. The magnitude of the effect is also economically significant: the effect of 1 percent of GDP increase (decrease) in spending (revenue) is comparable to an exogenous decline in the federal funds rate. We also find that fiscal shocks tend to have larger effects during periods of recessions than expansions in the source country, and that the adverse effect of a fiscal consolidation is larger than the positive effect of the same size of a fiscal expansion. In contrast, we do not find systematic and statistically significant differences in the spillover effects across recipient countries depending on their exchange rate regime, although capital controls seem to play some moderating role. The extension of the analysis to a panel of 16 small open economies confirms the finding from the U.S. economy.
Regional Economic Outlook October 2017 Sub Saharan Africa
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Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-27
Regional Economic Outlook October 2017 Sub Saharan Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-27 with Business & Economics categories.
Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has recovered relative to 2016, but the momentum is weak and per capita incomes are expected to barely increase. Further, vulnerabilities have risen in many countries, adding to the urgency of implementing the fiscal consolidations planned in most countries and with stepped up efforts to strengthen growth.
Economic Convergence In The Euro Area Coming Together Or Drifting Apart
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Author : Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-01-23
Economic Convergence In The Euro Area Coming Together Or Drifting Apart written by Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-01-23 with Business & Economics categories.
We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.
Report On Financial Structures
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Author : European Central Bank
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2002
Report On Financial Structures written by European Central Bank and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with Aktiemarkeder categories.
World Economic Outlook October 2013
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-10-08
World Economic Outlook October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.