Forecast Evaluation Report October 2012
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Forecast Evaluation Report October 2012
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Author : Office for Budget Responsibility
language : en
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Release Date : 2012-10-16
Forecast Evaluation Report October 2012 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and has been published by The Stationery Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-10-16 with Business & Economics categories.
This report sets out how the economy and the public finances have evolved since the beginning of 2010 and examines how this evolution compares to the forecasts published by the OBR at the time of the Coalition's first budget in June 2010 and subsequently. In this year's report the key question to address is why the OBR over estimated the pace of economic growth so significantly since the autumn of 2010 whilst public sector borrowing has fallen no more slowly than expected? The underestimation of economic growth reflects several factors: the impact of stubborn inflation on real consumer spending; deteriorating export markets; impaired credit conditions; euro area anxiety and demand uncertainly for business investment. Public sector net borrowing, on the other hand, fell much as expected. The public finances have been buoyed by the resilience of cash spending and the labour market, while local and central government have spent less on public services and administration than budgeted. Individual chapters cover: the economy; the public finances; conclusions and lessons to be learned. Annexes contain the decomposition of fiscal forecast errors and comparison with past official forecasts.
Office For Budget Responsibiity Forecast Evaluation Report
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Author : Office for Budget Responsibility
language : en
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Release Date : 2013-10-09
Office For Budget Responsibiity Forecast Evaluation Report written by Office for Budget Responsibility and has been published by The Stationery Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-09 with Business & Economics categories.
The backdrop to this report is: a real economy that, until very recently, has been weaker than expected; a labour market that has been stronger than expected in terms of employment, but weaker in terms of earnings growth; and a fall in public sector borrowing as a share of national income of around a third from its peak in 2009-10, with the deficit falling significantly in 2010-11 and 2011-12 but by much less in 2012-13. The report explains the OBR's June 2010 and March 2012 forecast errors, and the weakness of the real economy. GDP remains 3.3 per cent below its pre-recession peak, the disappointing performance over the last three years reflecting the weakness of domestic and external demand. Private sector employment growth has far exceeded forecasts. The March 2013 forecast for public sector borrowing predicted a figure of £119.8 billion in 2013-14, a reduction of £1 billion over the previous year; but the new forecast is for an increase of £4.2 billion increase over 2012-13.
The Office For Budget Responsibility And The Politics Of Technocratic Economic Governance
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Author : Ben Clift
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2023-03-14
The Office For Budget Responsibility And The Politics Of Technocratic Economic Governance written by Ben Clift and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-14 with Political Science categories.
The Office for Budget Responsibility and the Politics of Technocratic Economic Governance is about the politics of economic ideas and technocratic economic governance. It is also a book about the changing political economy of British capitalism's relationship to the European and wider global economies. It focuses on the creation in 2010 and subsequent operation of the independent body created to oversee fiscal rectitude in Britain, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). More broadly, it analyses the politics of economic management of the UK's uncertain trajectory, and of British capitalism's restructuring in the 2010s and 2020s in the face of the upheavals of the global financial crisis (GFC), Brexit and COVID. A focus on the intersection between expert economic opinion of the OBR as UK's fiscal watchdog, and the political economy of British capitalism's evolution through and after Brexit, animates a framework for analysing the politics of technocratic economic governance. The technocratic vision of independent fiscal councils fails to grasp a core political economy insight: that economic knowledge and narratives are political and social constructs. The book unpacks the competing constructions of economic reason that underpin models of British capitalism, and through that inform expert economic assessment of the UK economy. It also underlines how contestable political economic assumptions undergird visions of Britain's international economic relations. These were all brought to the fore in economic policy debates about Britain's place in the world, which in the 2010s centred on Brexit. This book analyses OBR forecasting and fiscal oversight in that broader political context, rather than as a narrowly technical pursuit.
Budget 2013
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Author : Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee
language : en
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Release Date : 2013-04-22
Budget 2013 written by Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee and has been published by The Stationery Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-22 with Business & Economics categories.
The Treasury Committee's report on Budget 2013 focuses on: macroeconomy; the public finances; monetary policy; taxation; departmental spending; housing; energy policy; premature disclosure of budget information; Parliamentary timing. The report contains 46 conclusions and recommendations. Particular attention is paid to the Help to Buy housing policy, which is considered a work in progress which may have unintended consequences and may not help first-time buyers. The Committee poses a number of questions for the Chancellor on the policy. Overall, if the Government's priority was housing supply, its housing measures should have concentrated there. On energy it is unclear which Government Department is in the lead for energy policy and this lack of clarity must be addressed. The changes to the monetary policy remit announced by the Chancellor at the time of Budget 2013 create uncertainty. Tax complexity and instability remain of considerable concern. The Committee will monitor whether the Government anti-avoidance measures succeed in generating the revenue predicted of them. In addition, the Committee invited comments from three accounting bodies on how Budget 2013 meets the Committee's tax policy principles: basic fairness; supporting growth and encouraging competition; certainty, including simplicity; stability; practicality; and coherence.
Autumn Statement 2012
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Author : Great Britain: H.M. Treasury
language : en
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Release Date : 2012-12-05
Autumn Statement 2012 written by Great Britain: H.M. Treasury and has been published by The Stationery Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-05 with Business & Economics categories.
The OBR's forecast for GDP growth in 2012 is -0.1 percent and is projected to pick up in every year of the forecast. Public Sector Net Borrowing is forecast to fall by 1.0 percent of GDP in 2012-13 and in subsequent years of the forecast. Public Sector Net Debt is expected to be 79.9 per cent of GDP in 2015-16 before falling to 77.3 per cent by 2017-18. This Statement sets out a further £6.6 billion package of savings in the spending review period, made up from welfare, Official Development Assistance (ODA) and departmental current spending. A £5.5 billion of additional infrastructure will be funded, including in new roads, science and free schools and academies. There will be a further 1 per cent cut in the main rate of corporation tax from April 2014, to 21 per cent and a significant temporary increase in the Annual Investment Allowance from £25,000 to £250, 000 for two years. A greater proportion of growth-related spending will be devolved to local areas and a Business Bank will be created to deploy £1 billion of additional capital and enable UK Export Finance to provide up to £1.5 billion in loans with a package of reforms to promote export. The Government will: increase the basic State Pension by 2.5 percent; create an HM Revenue & Customs unit dedicated to tackling offshore tax evasion; introduce of the UK's first General Anti-abuse Rule; develop significant new information disclosure and penalty powers; and close off tax loopholes. Lifetime allowances for pension contributions will be reduced.
Autumn Statement 2012
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Author : Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee
language : en
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Release Date : 2013-01-29
Autumn Statement 2012 written by Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee and has been published by The Stationery Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-29 with Business & Economics categories.
The Treasury should re-establish the annual Budget as the main focus of fiscal and economic policy making. The Autumn Statement is not, nor should it be, a second Budget. An additional budget can create uncertainty and carries an economic cost. Treasury and business managers also need to ensure that there is adequate Parliamentary time to allow proper scrutiny of the Finance Bill. About half of general government expenditure is to be protected from the new spending cuts but the complete protection of ring-fenced departmental budgets will be difficult to sustain while other departments are substantially affected. The Committee also intends to question the future Governor of the Bank of England, Dr Mark Carney, on possible alternatives to the inflation targeting that currently underpins the work of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank. The Treasury and to some extent the Bank were at fault for failing to coordinate the announcement of the Asset Purchase Facility transfer with that of the November MPC press release. It is vital that the MPC fulfils its duty to demonstrate its independence. There is concern at reports that the Funding for Lending Scheme may be biased in favouring lending for mortgages rather than lending to SMEs. The sums expected from the sale of the 4G spectrum and Swiss tax repatriation represent the majority of the additional receipts the Treasury intends to offset against the tax reductions and investment but both are uncertain. The Chancellor must also use the 2013 Budget to set out a clearer strategy for fuel duty over at least the medium term
Budget 2013
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Author : Great Britain: H.M. Treasury
language : en
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Release Date : 2013-03-20
Budget 2013 written by Great Britain: H.M. Treasury and has been published by The Stationery Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-20 with Business & Economics categories.
Budget 2013 announces further detail on the Government's deficit reduction plans, new steps to ensure monetary policy continues to support the economy (including a new remit for the Monetary Policy Committee), and further measures to ease the long-term pressure on the public finances. Central government departmental expenditure limits will be reduced by £1.1 billion in 2013-14 and £1.2 billion in 2014-15, with the funds used to support housing. Schools and health budgets remain unchanged. Public sector pay awards will be limited to an average of 1 per cent. Budget 2013 is fiscally neutral. Action to promote growth includes: a reduction in corporation tax by 1 per cent in April 2015; from April 2014 giving businesses and charities an entitlement to a £2000 employment allowance per year towards their employer National Insurance contributions, designed particularly to help small businesses; capital spending increase by £3 billion a year; providing £1.6 funding to support strategies in 11 key sectors; creation of a Single Local Growth Fund; introduce a new housing scheme, Help to Buy comprising an extension of the First Buy scheme and mortgage guarantee for lenders who offer mortgages to people with a deposit of between 5 and 20 per cent on homes with a value up to £600,000; reducing the qualifying period for Right to Buy; doubling the existing affordable homes guarantee programme, to support a further 15,000 affordable homes in England by 2015. Other measures include: first £10,000 of income to be tax free in 2014-15; cancellation of planned fuel duty increases; a new tax-free Childcare Scheme and increased child support in Universal Credit; implement the £72,000 cap on reasonable social care costs; reduce beer duty by 2 per cent; crackdown on tax avoidance, with the Isle of Man, Guernsey and Jersey entering into tax information exchange agreements.
The Double Crisis Of The Welfare State And What We Can Do About It
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Author : P. Taylor-Gooby
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2013-04-10
The Double Crisis Of The Welfare State And What We Can Do About It written by P. Taylor-Gooby and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-10 with Political Science categories.
This book analyses the immediate challenges from headlong cuts, root-and-branch restructuring and the longer-term pressures from population ageing. It demonstrates that a more humane and generous welfare state that will build social inclusiveness is possible and shows how it can be achieved.
What Is The Truth About The Great Recession And Increasing Inequality
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Author : Mario Morroni
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-09-15
What Is The Truth About The Great Recession And Increasing Inequality written by Mario Morroni and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Have you ever puzzled over the causes of the 2007–8 financial crisis and wondered how it will affect all our futures? If so, this book is for you. Using imagined dialogue between three economists with contrasting theoretical perspectives and a student who knows little about economics, different interpretations are compared in straightforward, jargon-free language. The book explores both the consequences of neoliberal economic policies based on the belief in efficient, self-regulating markets and the implications of alternative economic visions formulated in response to the Great Recession. In all, nine dialogues are presented, each of which focuses on a key theme: increasing inequality, the failure of economists to predict the crash, the reasons for fiscal austerity, the rolling back of the welfare state, the roles of the state and the market, the repercussions of the German trade surplus and the Eurozone crisis, policies to confront the crisis, environmental degradation, and the need for an industrial policy appropriate to the present day. The book will be ideal for both general readers and those embarking on the study of economics.
House Of Commons Treasury Committee Autumn Statement 2013 Hc 826
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Author : Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee
language : en
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Release Date : 2014-03-08
House Of Commons Treasury Committee Autumn Statement 2013 Hc 826 written by Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee and has been published by The Stationery Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Around 43% of departmental expenditure limits are ring-fenced. As a consequence, public expenditure control - on the scale required to address the deficit - will be increasingly difficult. While ring-fencing reflects public priorities, those preferences are not equally strongly held for all ring-fenced areas. Support for the 33.5% cumulative real increase in aid over the course of this Parliament, for example, appears to be lower than for health and schools. The Committee also remains concerned about the impact of the Government's Help to Buy: Mortgage guarantee scheme. An abrupt end to the scheme could distort the market, as could announcements which radically alter people's expectations. Forecasts of additional revenue from many anti-avoidance measures are inherently extremely uncertain. The Committee warned in its report on the Autumn Statement 2012 that the forecast revenues from the UK-Swiss agreement - at £5.3 billion - were subject to uncertainty and that the proceeds may not meet expectations. These concerns appear to have been justified. Even after the event it is often very difficult to establish how much a particular measure has raised. The OBR should look again at how the Government accounts for projected revenues, based on previous experience. Even after the event it is often very difficult to establish how much a particular measure has raised. The more transparency about the yield, and therefore each proposal's effectiveness, the better