Forecasting Exchange Rates Employing Technical And Fundamental Data Before And During The Financial Crisis
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Forecasting Exchange Rates Employing Technical And Fundamental Data Before And During The Financial Crisis
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Author : Gion Donat Piras
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Forecasting Exchange Rates Employing Technical And Fundamental Data Before And During The Financial Crisis written by Gion Donat Piras and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
It is a well known fact that a naive random walk generates better exchange rate forecasts than economic models. The exchange rate is episodically unstable and the switching nature is inconsistent with a linear representation. However, empirical evidence in favour of non-linear models such as regime switching models, neural networks or non-parametric ones is weak. The present paper adopts an econometric method, which incorporates dynamic model averaging (DMA) and selection (DMS). The DMA / DMS framework adds additionally layers of flexibility by allowing parameters as well as the entire forecasting model to evolve over time. In addition this paper takes a different approach by forecasting exchange rates at a daily frequency. Thereby financial data is used as a proxy for macro-economic fundamentals and technical indicators are included in the set of potential predictor variables. The paper shows strong empirical evidence in favour of the employed model in the period before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. During the financial crisis predictability in terms of the mean squared forecast error breaks down. The time-varying evolution of fundamental and technical forecasts allows investigating the evolution of the influence of two types of agents (fundamentalists and chartists) believed to operate in the foreign exchange market.
Handbook Of Exchange Rates
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Author : Jessica James
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-05-29
Handbook Of Exchange Rates written by Jessica James and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Currency Forecasting
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Author : Michael Roy Rosenberg
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1996
Currency Forecasting written by Michael Roy Rosenberg and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996 with Business & Economics categories.
This text explains the methods and aspects of exchange rate forecasting, including purchasing power, parity, interest rate differentials and technical analysis. Guidelines for reducing risk with forecasting strategies are included, as are techniques for co
Exchange Rate Forecasting
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Author : Jon Faust
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2003
Exchange Rate Forecasting written by Jon Faust and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with categories.
We examine the forecasting performance of standard macro models of exchange rates in real time, using dozens of different vintages of the OECDs Main Economic Indicators database. We calculate out-of-sample forecasts as they would have been made at the time, and compare them to a random walk alternative. The resulting "time series" of forecast performance indicates that both data revisions and changes in the sample period typically have large effects on exchange rate predictability. We show that the favorable evidence of long-horizon exchange rate predictability for the DM and Yen in Mark (1995) is present in only a narrow two-year window of data vintages around that used by Mark. In addition, approximately one-third of the improved forecasting performance of Mark's monetary model over a random walk is eventually undone by data revisions. Related to this, we find the models consistently perform better using original release data than using fully revised data. Finally, we find that model-based exchange rate forecasts are sometimes better when using Federal Reserve Staff forecasts of future fundamentals instead of actual future values of fundamentals. This contradicts a cherished presumption in the literature that dates all the way back to Meese and Rogoff (1983).
Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets
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Author : John J. Murphy
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 1999-01-01
Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets written by John J. Murphy and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
John J. Murphy has now updated his landmark bestseller Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets, to include all of the financial markets. This outstanding reference has already taught thousands of traders the concepts of technical analysis and their application in the futures and stock markets. Covering the latest developments in computer technology, technical tools, and indicators, the second edition features new material on candlestick charting, intermarket relationships, stocks and stock rotation, plus state-of-the-art examples and figures. From how to read charts to understanding indicators and the crucial role technical analysis plays in investing, readers gain a thorough and accessible overview of the field of technical analysis, with a special emphasis on futures markets. Revised and expanded for the demands of today's financial world, this book is essential reading for anyone interested in tracking and analyzing market behavior.
Financial Crises Explanations Types And Implications
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Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-01-30
Financial Crises Explanations Types And Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-30 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
A Tea Reader
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Author : Katrina Avila Munichiello
language : en
Publisher: Tuttle Publishing
Release Date : 2017-03-21
A Tea Reader written by Katrina Avila Munichiello and has been published by Tuttle Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-03-21 with Literary Collections categories.
A Tea Reader contains a selection of stories that cover the spectrum of life. This anthology shares the ways that tea has changed lives through personal, intimate stories. Read of deep family moments, conquered heartbreak, and peace found in the face of loss. A Tea Reader includes stories from all types of tea people: people brought up in the tea tradition, those newly discovering it, classic writings from long-ago tea lovers and those making tea a career. Together these tales create a new image of a tea drinker. They show that tea is not simply something you drink, but it also provides quiet moments for making important decisions, a catalyst for conversation, and the energy we sometimes need to operate in our lives. The stories found in A Tea Reader cover the spectrum of life, such as the development of new friendships, beginning new careers, taking dream journeys, and essentially sharing the deep moments of life with friends and families. Whether you are a tea lover or not, here you will discover stories that speak to you and inspire you. Sit down, grab a cup, and read on.
Market Volatility And Foreign Exchange Intervention In Emes
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Author : Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico
language : es
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Market Volatility And Foreign Exchange Intervention In Emes written by Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Banks and banking, Central categories.
Handbook Of Financial Econometrics Mathematics Statistics And Machine Learning In 4 Volumes
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Author : Cheng Few Lee
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2020-07-30
Handbook Of Financial Econometrics Mathematics Statistics And Machine Learning In 4 Volumes written by Cheng Few Lee and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-07-30 with Business & Economics categories.
This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.
International Financial Management
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Author : Geert Bekaert
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2017-11-30
International Financial Management written by Geert Bekaert and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Combining academic theory with practical case studies, this book helps students understand global financial markets and business management.