Forecasting With Exponential Smoothing
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Forecasting With Exponential Smoothing
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Author : Rob Hyndman
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-06-19
Forecasting With Exponential Smoothing written by Rob Hyndman and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-06-19 with Mathematics categories.
Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.
Forecasting Principles And Practice
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Author : Rob J Hyndman
language : en
Publisher: OTexts
Release Date : 2018-05-08
Forecasting Principles And Practice written by Rob J Hyndman and has been published by OTexts this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Forecasting With Exponential Smoothing
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Author : Rob Hyndman
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-06-19
Forecasting With Exponential Smoothing written by Rob Hyndman and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-06-19 with Mathematics categories.
Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.
Statistical Methods For Forecasting
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Author : Bovas Abraham
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2009-09-25
Statistical Methods For Forecasting written by Bovas Abraham and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-09-25 with Mathematics categories.
The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. "This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: 'Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.' It does just that!" -Journal of the Royal Statistical Society "A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series analysis by PhD students; or to support a concentration in quantitative methods for MBA students; or as a work in applied statistics for advanced undergraduates." -Choice Statistical Methods for Forecasting is a comprehensive, readable treatment of statistical methods and models used to produce short-term forecasts. The interconnections between the forecasting models and methods are thoroughly explained, and the gap between theory and practice is successfully bridged. Special topics are discussed, such as transfer function modeling; Kalman filtering; state space models; Bayesian forecasting; and methods for forecast evaluation, comparison, and control. The book provides time series, autocorrelation, and partial autocorrelation plots, as well as examples and exercises using real data. Statistical Methods for Forecasting serves as an outstanding textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate courses in statistics, business, engineering, and the social sciences, as well as a working reference for professionals in business, industry, and government.
Sas For Forecasting Time Series Third Edition
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Author : John C. Brocklebank, Ph.D.
language : en
Publisher: SAS Institute
Release Date : 2018-03-14
Sas For Forecasting Time Series Third Edition written by John C. Brocklebank, Ph.D. and has been published by SAS Institute this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-14 with Computers categories.
To use statistical methods and SAS applications to forecast the future values of data taken over time, you need only follow this thoroughly updated classic on the subject. With this third edition of SAS for Forecasting Time Series, intermediate-to-advanced SAS users—such as statisticians, economists, and data scientists—can now match the most sophisticated forecasting methods to the most current SAS applications. Starting with fundamentals, this new edition presents methods for modeling both univariate and multivariate data taken over time. From the well-known ARIMA models to unobserved components, methods that span the range from simple to complex are discussed and illustrated. Many of the newer methods are variations on the basic ARIMA structures. Completely updated, this new edition includes fresh, interesting business situations and data sets, and new sections on these up-to-date statistical methods: ARIMA models Vector autoregressive models Exponential smoothing models Unobserved component and state-space models Seasonal adjustment Spectral analysis Focusing on application, this guide teaches a wide range of forecasting techniques by example. The examples provide the statistical underpinnings necessary to put the methods into practice. The following up-to-date SAS applications are covered in this edition: The ARIMA procedure The AUTOREG procedure The VARMAX procedure The ESM procedure The UCM and SSM procedures The X13 procedure The SPECTRA procedure SAS Forecast Studio Each SAS application is presented with explanation of its strengths, weaknesses, and best uses. Even users of automated forecasting systems will benefit from this knowledge of what is done and why. Moreover, the accompanying examples can serve as templates that you easily adjust to fit your specific forecasting needs. This book is part of the SAS Press program.
Smoothing Forecasting And Prediction Of Discrete Time Series
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Author : Robert Goodell Brown
language : en
Publisher: Courier Corporation
Release Date : 2004-01-01
Smoothing Forecasting And Prediction Of Discrete Time Series written by Robert Goodell Brown and has been published by Courier Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-01-01 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Computer application techniques are applied to routine short-term forecasting and prediction in this classic of operations research. The text begins with a consideration of data sources and sampling intervals, progressing to discussions of time series models and probability models. An extensive overview of smoothing techniques surveys the mathematical techniques for periodically raising the estimates of coefficients in forecasting problems. Sections on forecasting and error measurement and analysis are followed by an exploration of alternatives and the applications of the forecast to specific problems, and a treatment of the handling of systems design problems ranges from observed data to decision rules. 1963 ed.
Handbook On Decision Making
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Author : Chee Peng Lim
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2010-09-07
Handbook On Decision Making written by Chee Peng Lim and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-09-07 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Decision making arises when we wish to select the best possible course of action from a set of alternatives. With advancements of the digital technologies, it is easy, and almost instantaneous, to gather a large volume of information and/or data pertaining to a problem that we want to solve. For instance, the world-wi- web is perhaps the primary source of information and/or data that we often turn to when we face a decision making problem. However, the information and/or data that we obtain from the real world often are complex, and comprise various kinds of noise. Besides, real-world information and/or data often are incomplete and ambiguous, owing to uncertainties of the environments. All these make decision making a challenging task. To cope with the challenges of decision making, - searchers have designed and developed a variety of decision support systems to provide assistance in human decision making processes. The main aim of this book is to provide a small collection of techniques stemmed from artificial intelligence, as well as other complementary methodo- gies, that are useful for the design and development of intelligent decision support systems. Application examples of how these intelligent decision support systems can be utilized to help tackle a variety of real-world problems in different - mains, e. g. business, management, manufacturing, transportation and food ind- tries, and biomedicine, are also presented. A total of twenty chapters, which can be broadly divided into two parts, i. e.
Predictive Analytics And Data Mining
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Author : Vijay Kotu
language : en
Publisher: Morgan Kaufmann
Release Date : 2014-11-27
Predictive Analytics And Data Mining written by Vijay Kotu and has been published by Morgan Kaufmann this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-11-27 with Computers categories.
Put Predictive Analytics into ActionLearn the basics of Predictive Analysis and Data Mining through an easy to understand conceptual framework and immediately practice the concepts learned using the open source RapidMiner tool. Whether you are brand new to Data Mining or working on your tenth project, this book will show you how to analyze data, uncover hidden patterns and relationships to aid important decisions and predictions. Data Mining has become an essential tool for any enterprise that collects, stores and processes data as part of its operations. This book is ideal for business users, data analysts, business analysts, business intelligence and data warehousing professionals and for anyone who wants to learn Data Mining.You’ll be able to:1. Gain the necessary knowledge of different data mining techniques, so that you can select the right technique for a given data problem and create a general purpose analytics process.2. Get up and running fast with more than two dozen commonly used powerful algorithms for predictive analytics using practical use cases.3. Implement a simple step-by-step process for predicting an outcome or discovering hidden relationships from the data using RapidMiner, an open source GUI based data mining tool Predictive analytics and Data Mining techniques covered: Exploratory Data Analysis, Visualization, Decision trees, Rule induction, k-Nearest Neighbors, Naïve Bayesian, Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector machines, Ensemble models, Bagging, Boosting, Random Forests, Linear regression, Logistic regression, Association analysis using Apriori and FP Growth, K-Means clustering, Density based clustering, Self Organizing Maps, Text Mining, Time series forecasting, Anomaly detection and Feature selection. Implementation files can be downloaded from the book companion site at www.LearnPredictiveAnalytics.com Demystifies data mining concepts with easy to understand language Shows how to get up and running fast with 20 commonly used powerful techniques for predictive analysis Explains the process of using open source RapidMiner tools Discusses a simple 5 step process for implementing algorithms that can be used for performing predictive analytics Includes practical use cases and examples
Proceedings Of The Future Technologies Conference Ftc 2020 Volume 2
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Author : Kohei Arai
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-10-31
Proceedings Of The Future Technologies Conference Ftc 2020 Volume 2 written by Kohei Arai and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-31 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book provides the state-of-the-art intelligent methods and techniques for solving real-world problems along with a vision of the future research. The fifth 2020 Future Technologies Conference was organized virtually and received a total of 590 submissions from academic pioneering researchers, scientists, industrial engineers, and students from all over the world. The submitted papers covered a wide range of important topics including but not limited to computing, electronics, artificial intelligence, robotics, security and communications and their applications to the real world. After a double-blind peer review process, 210 submissions (including 6 poster papers) have been selected to be included in these proceedings. One of the meaningful and valuable dimensions of this conference is the way it brings together a large group of technology geniuses in one venue to not only present breakthrough research in future technologies, but also to promote discussions and debate of relevant issues, challenges, opportunities and research findings. The authors hope that readers find the book interesting, exciting and inspiring.
Data Analysis With R Second Edition
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Author : Tony Fischetti
language : en
Publisher: Packt Publishing
Release Date : 2018-03-28
Data Analysis With R Second Edition written by Tony Fischetti and has been published by Packt Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-28 with Computers categories.
Frequently the tool of choice for academics, R has spread deep into the private sector and can be found in the production pipelines at some of the most advanced and successful enterprises. The power and domain-specificity of R allows the user to express complex analytics easily, quickly, and succinctly. Starting with the basics of R and statistical reasoning, this book dives into advanced predictive analytics, showing how to apply those techniques to real-world data though with real-world examples. Packed with engaging problems and exercises, this book begins with a review of R and its syntax with packages like Rcpp, ggplot2, and dplyr. From there, get to grips with the fundamentals of applied statistics and build on this knowledge to perform sophisticated and powerful analytics. Solve the difficulties relating to performing data analysis in practice and find solutions to working with messy data, large data, communicating results, and facilitating reproducibility. This book is engineered to be an invaluable resource through many stages of anyone's career as a data analyst.