Fragmentation In Global Trade Accounting For Commodities
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Fragmentation In Global Trade Accounting For Commodities
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Author : Marijn A. Bolhuis
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-03-24
Fragmentation In Global Trade Accounting For Commodities written by Marijn A. Bolhuis and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-24 with Business & Economics categories.
We construct a new database which covers production and trade in 136 primary commodities and 24 manufacturing and service sectors for 145 countries. Using this new more granular data, we estimate spillover effects from plausible trade fragmentation scenarios in a new multi-country, multi-sector, general-equilibrium model that accounts for unique demand and supply characteristics of commodities. The results show fragmentation-induced output losses can be sizable, especially for Low-Income-Countries, although the magnitudes vary according to the particular scenarios and modelling assumptions. Our work demonstrates that not accounting for granular commodity production and trade linkages leads to underestimation of the output losses associated with trade fragmentation.
Commodity Terms Of Trade
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Author : Bertrand Gruss
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-01-24
Commodity Terms Of Trade written by Bertrand Gruss and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-24 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individual commodities is weighted using commodity-level trade data. The database includes a commodity terms-of-trade index—which proxies the windfall gains and losses of income associated with changes in world prices—as well as additional country-specific series, including commodity export and import price indices. We provide indices that are constructed using, alternatively, fixed weights (based on average trade flows over several decades) and time-varying weights (which can account for time variation in the mix of commodities traded and the overall importance of commodities in economic activity). The paper also discusses the dynamics of commodity terms of trade across country groups and their influence on key macroeconomic aggregates.
Geoeconomic Fragmentation And Commodity Markets
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Author : Mr. Jorge A Alvarez
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-10-03
Geoeconomic Fragmentation And Commodity Markets written by Mr. Jorge A Alvarez and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-10-03 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper studies the economic impact of fragmentation of commodity trade. We assemble a novel dataset of production and bilateral trade flows of the 48 most important energy, mineral and agricultural commodities. We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess which commodity markets are most vulnerable in the event of trade disruptions and the economic risks that they pose. We find that commodity trade fragmentation – which has accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – could cause large price changes and price volatility for many commodities. Mineral markets critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodity markets appear among the most vulnerable in the hypothetical segmentation of the world into two geopolitical blocs examined in the paper. Trade disruptions result in heterogeneous impacts on economic surplus across countries. However, due to offsetting effects across commodity producing and consuming countries, surplus losses appear modest at the global level.
Geo Economic Fragmentation And The Future Of Multilateralism
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Author : Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-01-15
Geo Economic Fragmentation And The Future Of Multilateralism written by Mr. Shekhar Aiyar and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-01-15 with Business & Economics categories.
After several decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). This note explores the ramifications. It identifies multiple channels through which the benefits of globalization were earlier transmitted, and along which, conversely, the costs of GEF are likely to fall, including trade, migration, capital flows, technology diffusion and the provision of global public goods. It explores the consequences of GEF for the international monetary system and the global financial safety net. Finally, it suggests a pragmatic path forward for preserving the benefits of global integration and multilateralism
Geoeconomic Fragmentation What S At Stake For The Eu
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Author : Chikako Baba
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-11-30
Geoeconomic Fragmentation What S At Stake For The Eu written by Chikako Baba and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-11-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) is becoming entrenched worldwide, and the European Union (EU) is not immune to its effects. This paper takes stock of GEF policies impinging on—and adopted by—the EU and considers how exposed the EU is through trade, financial and technological channels. Motivated by current policies adopted by other countries, the paper then simulates how various measures—raising costs of trade and technology transfer and fossil fuel prices, and imposition of sectoral subsidies—would affect the EU economy. Due to its high-degree of openness, the EU is found to be exposed to GEF through multiple channels, with simulated losses that differ significantly across scenarios. From a welfare perspective, this suggests the need for a cautious approach to GEF policies. The EU’s best defence against GEF is to strengthen the Single Market while advocating for a multilateral rules-based trading system.
Uncovering Value Added In Trade New Approaches To Analyzing Global Value Chains
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Author : Yuqing Xing
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2015-07-13
Uncovering Value Added In Trade New Approaches To Analyzing Global Value Chains written by Yuqing Xing and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-07-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Value chain trade has challenged economic implications of conventional trade statistics and transformed bilateral trade relationships into multilaterals. Conventional trade statistics exaggerate trade volumes and bilateral trade imbalances. It is imperative to measure trade in value-added and examine trade relations in the context of global value chains. This book is a collection of research papers on new approaches to measure trade in value added and the role of global value chains in modern international trade. It introduces the input output method for measuring trade and a direct approach for measuring the domestic value added of the People's Republic of China — the center of global assembly. In addition, it shows how to analyze trade relations in the context of global value chains.
The Global Trade Slowdown
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Author : Cristina Constantinescu
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-01-21
The Global Trade Slowdown written by Cristina Constantinescu and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-21 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.
The Slowdown In Global Trade A Symptom Of A Weak Recovery
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Author : Aqib Aslam
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-15
The Slowdown In Global Trade A Symptom Of A Weak Recovery written by Aqib Aslam and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 percent of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012–16 and 2003–07. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach.
Trade Patterns And Global Value Chains In East Asia
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Author : World Trade Organization
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Trade Patterns And Global Value Chains In East Asia written by World Trade Organization and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.
Commodities In Crisis
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Author : Alfred Maizels
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Release Date : 1992
Commodities In Crisis written by Alfred Maizels and has been published by Oxford University Press, USA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992 with Business & Economics categories.
With the dramatic changes in the global political scene, many developing countries are re-evaluating their economic and political priorities. This reappraisal scrutinizes their dependence on specific commodities and the crisis into which this market has been thrown in the last decade. This work relates the main theoretical and empirical issues in the collapse in commodity prices since 1980--a major cause of the Third World economic crises--to perceived conflicts of interest between developed and developing countries. Maizels continues his study by discussing the elements of a new approach to an effective commodity policy for the future. He includes coverage of such major problems as the impact of commodity instability on the global economy, market structure, as well as synthetics and diversification. This study will be of interest to academics and students of development economics and international trade as well as to policymakers in developing countries.