The Slowdown In Global Trade A Symptom Of A Weak Recovery
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The Slowdown In Global Trade A Symptom Of A Weak Recovery
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Author : Aqib Aslam
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-15
The Slowdown In Global Trade A Symptom Of A Weak Recovery written by Aqib Aslam and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 percent of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012–16 and 2003–07. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach.
The Global Trade Slowdown And Its Implications For Emerging Asia
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Author : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv
language : en
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Release Date : 2016-11-18
The Global Trade Slowdown And Its Implications For Emerging Asia written by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv and has been published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-18 with categories.
The global economy is at a critical juncture today. According to the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, global gross domestic product (GDP) is set to grow at only 3.1 percent this year, the lowest rate of growth since the Global Financial Crisis. Investment and productivity remain subdued, despite extremely low and even negative interest rates in many economies. One key aspect of global weakness that is of particular relevance to emerging Asian economies is the sharp slowdown in global trade. This slowdown represents a notable departure from the "normal" times of the past few decades, and is the subject of my remarks today.
The Global Trade Slowdown
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Author : Cristina Constantinescu
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-01-21
The Global Trade Slowdown written by Cristina Constantinescu and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-21 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.
China And Asia In Global Trade Slowdown
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Author : Gee Hee Hong
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-05-26
China And Asia In Global Trade Slowdown written by Gee Hee Hong and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-05-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others.
The Slowdown In Global Trade A Symptom Of A Weak Recovery
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Author : Aqib Aslam
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-15
The Slowdown In Global Trade A Symptom Of A Weak Recovery written by Aqib Aslam and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 percent of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012–16 and 2003–07. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach.
Understanding The Weakness In Global Trade
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Understanding The Weakness In Global Trade written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
Global trade has been exceptionally weak over the past four years. While global trade grew at approximately twice the rate of GDP prior to the Great Recession, the ratio of global trade to GDP growth has declined to about unity since 2012. This paper assesses to what extent the change in the relationship between global trade and global economic activity is a temporary phenomenon or constitutes a lasting change. It finds that global trade growth has been primarily dampened by two factors. First, compositional factors, including geographical shifts in economic activity and changes in the composition of aggregate demand, have weighed on the sensitivity of trade to economic activity. Second, structural developments, such as waning growth in global value chains, a rise in non-tariff protectionist measures and a declining marginal impact of financial deepening, are dampening the support from factors that boosted global trade in the past. Notwithstanding the particularly pronounced weakness in 2015 that is assessed to be mostly a temporary phenomenon owing to a number of country-specific adverse shocks, the upside potential for trade over the medium term appears to be limited. The "new normal" for global trade can therefore be expected to look broadly similar to the weakness observed over recent years on average. In this sense, buoyant trade dynamics in the 1990s and early 2000s may have been what was exceptional, rather than the slowdown over recent years.
The Great Trade Collapse Causes Consequences And Prospects
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Author : Richard E. Baldwin
language : en
Publisher: CEPR
Release Date : 2009
The Great Trade Collapse Causes Consequences And Prospects written by Richard E. Baldwin and has been published by CEPR this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Commercial policy categories.
The Collapse Of Global Trade Murky Protectionism And The Crisis
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Author : Richard E. Baldwin
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011-03
The Collapse Of Global Trade Murky Protectionism And The Crisis written by Richard E. Baldwin and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The global financial crisis of 2008/9 is the Great Depression of the 21st century. For many though, the similarities stop at the Wall Street Crash as the current generation of policymakers have acted quickly to avoid the mistakes of the past. Yet the global crisis has made room for mistakes all of its own. While governments have apparently kept to their word on refraining from protectionist measures in the style of 1930s tariffs, there has been a disturbing rise in "murky protectionism." Seemingly benign, these crisis-linked policies are twisted to favour domestic firms, workers and investors. This book, first published as an eBook on VoxEU.org in March 2009, brings together leading trade policy practitioners and experts - including Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean and former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo. Initially its aim was to advise policymakers heading in to the G20 meeting in London, but since the threat of murky protectionism persists, so too do their warnings.
Global Productivity
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Author : Alistair Dieppe
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-06-09
Global Productivity written by Alistair Dieppe and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-06-09 with Business & Economics categories.
The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
The Great Recession And Developing Countries
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Author : Mustapha K. Nabli
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2010-12-03
The Great Recession And Developing Countries written by Mustapha K. Nabli and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-12-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The book provides one of the most detailed and comprehensive reviews of the growth experience of a group of low and middle income countries before and during the global crisis. It then explores their growth prospects after the recovery and how they may be shaped by the new global economic environment.