Gauging The Uncertainty Of The Economic Outlook From Historical Forecasting Errors
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Gauging The Uncertainty Of The Economic Outlook From Historical Forecasting Errors
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Author : David Reifschneider
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Gauging The Uncertainty Of The Economic Outlook From Historical Forecasting Errors written by David Reifschneider and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Economic forecasting categories.
Gauging The Uncertainty Of The Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors
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Author : David Reifschneider
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Gauging The Uncertainty Of The Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors written by David Reifschneider and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
Gaging The Uncertainty Of The Economic Outlook From Historical Forecasting Errors
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Author : David Reifschneider
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Gaging The Uncertainty Of The Economic Outlook From Historical Forecasting Errors written by David Reifschneider and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with categories.
Participants in meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regularly produce individual projections of real activity and inflation that are published in summary form. These summaries indicate participants' views about the most likely course for the macro-economy but, by themselves, are not enough to gauge the full range of possible outcomes - that is, the uncertainty surrounding the outlook. To this end, FOMC participants will now provide qualitative assessments of how they view the degree of current uncertainty relative to that which prevailed on average in the past. This paper discusses a method for gaging the average magnitude of historical uncertainty using information on the predictive accuracy of a number of private and government forecasters. The results suggest that, if past performance is a reasonable guide to the accuracy of future forecasts, considerable uncertainty surrounds all macroeconomic projections, including those of FOMC participants.
Forecast Errors And Uncertainty Shocks
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Author : Sylwia Nowak
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-11-17
Forecast Errors And Uncertainty Shocks written by Sylwia Nowak and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-17 with Business & Economics categories.
Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism has dampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequent forecasts.
The Making Of National Economic Forecasts
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Author : Lawrence Robert Klein
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2009-01-01
The Making Of National Economic Forecasts written by Lawrence Robert Klein and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
In this valuable volume, Nobel Prize-winner Klein gathers together a group of authors who focus on forecasting models for a number of economies. The variety of the models and the structural differences among them are especially interesting. . . Readers interested in forecasting methodologies will find much of value in this volume. Highly recommended. I. Walter, Choice This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.
Cbo S Economic Forecasting Record
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Author : Holly Battelle
language : en
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Release Date : 2010-11
Cbo S Economic Forecasting Record written by Holly Battelle and has been published by DIANE Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-11 with Business & Economics categories.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) regularly evaluates the accuracy of its economic forecasts by comparing them with the economy¿s actual performance and with others¿ forecasts. Such evaluations help guide CBO¿s efforts to improve the quality of its forecasts and are also intended to assist Members of Congress in their use of the agency¿s estimates. Contents of this report: (1) Choice of Forecasts for the Evaluation; (2) Measuring the Quality of Forecasts: Statistical Bias; Accuracy; Alternative Measures of Forecast Quality; (3) Limitations of Forecast Evaluations: (4) The Effects of Bus. Cycles, Changes in the Trend Rate of Productivity Growth, and Oil Price Shocks; (5) Forecasting Record: 2-Year Forecasts; 5-Year Projections; (6) Historical and Forecast Data.
The Oxford Handbook Of Economic Forecasting
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Author : Michael P. Clements
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2011-06-29
The Oxford Handbook Of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06-29 with Business & Economics categories.
This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.
Designing Fan Charts For Gdp Growth Forecasts To Better Reflect Downturn Risks
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Author : David Turner
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Designing Fan Charts For Gdp Growth Forecasts To Better Reflect Downturn Risks written by David Turner and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with Economics categories.
Abstract: Forecasts of GDP growth are typically over-optimistic for horizons beyond the current year, particularly because they fail to predict the occurrence or severity of future downturns. Macroeconomic forecasters have also long been under pressure to convey the uncertainty surrounding their forecasts, particularly since the financial crisis. The current paper proposes a method to address both these issues simultaneously by constructing fan charts which are parameterised on the basis of the historical forecasting track record, but distinguish between a "safe" regime and a "downturn-risk" regime. To identify the two regimes, use is made of recent OECD work on early warning indicators of a prospective downturn, relating to housing market or credit developments. Thus, when an early warning indicator is "flashing", the associated fan chart is not only wider to reflect increased uncertainty, but is also skewed to reflect greater downside risks using a two-piece normal distribution of the form used by central banks to provide fan charts around inflation forecasts. Conversely, in a safe regime, when the early warning indicators are not flashing, as well as being symmetric, the fan chart is narrower both relative to the downturn-risk regime and relative to what the fan chart would be if the dispersion was calculated with respect to the entire forecast track record with no distinction between regimes. The method is illustrated by reference to OECD GDP forecasts for the major seven economies made just prior to the global financial crisis, with fan charts calibrated using the track record of forecasts published in the OECD Economic Outlook. Fan charts which take account of early warning indicators in this way are much better at encapsulating the outturns associated with a downturn than a symmetrical fan chart calibrated indiscriminately on all forecast errors
Inflation Expectations
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Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2009-12-16
Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-12-16 with Business & Economics categories.
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Monetary Policy Report To The Congress
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Author : Ben S. Bernanke
language : en
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Release Date : 2011
Monetary Policy Report To The Congress written by Ben S. Bernanke and has been published by DIANE Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Business & Economics categories.