Global Economic Uncertainties And Exchange Rate Shocks
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Global Economic Uncertainties And Exchange Rate Shocks
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Author : Eliphas Ndou
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-01-08
Global Economic Uncertainties And Exchange Rate Shocks written by Eliphas Ndou and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-01-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This book examines the macroeconomic and regulatory impact of domestic and international shocks on the South African economy resulting from the 2009 financial crisis. It also assesses the impact of the US economy’s eventual recovery from the crisis and the prospect of higher US interest rates in future. Told in three parts, the book explores associations between economic growth, policy uncertainty and the key domestic and international transmission channels, and transmission effects, of global financial regulatory and domestic macro-economic uncertainties on subdued and volatile economic recovery, financial channels, lending rate margins, and credit growth. The book concludes by extending its focus to the role of US monetary policy, capital flows and rand/US dollar volatility on the South African economy.
Global Economic Uncertainties And Southeast Asian Economies
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Author : Suthiphand Chirathivat
language : en
Publisher: Flipside Digital Content Company Inc.
Release Date : 2016-05-13
Global Economic Uncertainties And Southeast Asian Economies written by Suthiphand Chirathivat and has been published by Flipside Digital Content Company Inc. this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-05-13 with Business & Economics categories.
The aftermath of the global economic breakdown in 2008-9 underscores the risks facing Southeast Asia's growth prospects. Although the region has demonstrated exceptional resilience to external shocks emanating from economic powerhouses around the globe, Southeast Asia is in dire need of an optimal policy mix of macroeconomic and trade policy measures that differ by country, underpin domestic demand, and revive domestic economies. This book offers in-depth, region-specific economic policy discourse that illuminates how a policy push is at work in the region, and sheds light on room for strengthening regional cooperation.This book aims to: (1) discuss the developments of macroeconomic and trade-policy mix against the backdrop of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and economic prospects for major countries in Southeast Asia (i.e., Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam); (2) assess the effectiveness of policy responses to the global economic unrest; (3) identify opportunities and challenges facing Southeast Asia in the midst of the global economic slump when developing Southeast Asia leverages on an ever-expanding role in the global business environment; (4) rethink the East Asian model of growth where enormous gains were driven principally by export demands from advanced economies; and (5) pioneer the key areas of regional cooperation and macroeconomic and trade policy reforms that may potentially strengthen regional economies.
Uncertainty And Cross Border Banking Flows
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Author : Sangyup Choi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-01-05
Uncertainty And Cross Border Banking Flows written by Sangyup Choi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-01-05 with Business & Economics categories.
While global uncertainty—measured by the VIX—has proven to be a robust global “push” factor of international capital flows, there has been no systematic study assessing the role of country-specific uncertainty as a key (pull and push) factor of international capital flows. This paper tries to fill this gap in the literature by examining the effects of country-specific uncertainty shocks on cross-border banking flows using the confidential Bank for International Settlements Locational Banking Statistics data. The dyadic structure of this data allows to disentangle supply and demand factors and to better identify the effect of uncertainty shocks on cross-border banking flows. The results of this analysis suggest that: (i) uncertainty is both a push and pull factor that robustly predicts a decrease in both outflows (retrenchment) and inflows (stops); (ii) global banks rebalance their lending towards safer foreign borrowers from local borrowers when facing higher uncertainty; (iii) this rebalancing occurs only towards advanced economies (flight to quality), but not emerging market economies.
Policy Uncertainty In Japan
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Author : Ms.Elif C Arbatli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-05-30
Policy Uncertainty In Japan written by Ms.Elif C Arbatli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-05-30 with Business & Economics categories.
We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
Revisiting The Concept Of Dollarization
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Author : MissNkunde Mwase
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-01-22
Revisiting The Concept Of Dollarization written by MissNkunde Mwase and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-22 with Business & Economics categories.
The economic literature has examined deposit dollarization in nominal terms, typically focusing on the ratio of foreign currency deposits to broad money. However, while private agent demand for foreign currency may remain unchanged in foreign currency terms, there could be large fluctuations in the dollarization ratio simply due to exchange rate movements. This paper proposes a new approach to measuring dollarization that removes these exchange rate effects, and demonstrates that beyond the variance of inflation and depreciation, the level of inflation and size of depreciation also matter for dollarization. While dollarization in nominal terms surged during the recent global financial crisis, there was a downward trend in real terms. Employing a set of econometric estimators, this paper investigates whether “real” dollarization during 2006–09 was associated with the crisis, and the role of initial macroeconomic conditions, quality of institutions, risk aversion, and prudential measures. We find that exchange rate appreciation and reductions in sovereign risk do moderate dollarization; but the results for global volatility have low statistical significance, perhaps because global shocks tend to preserve, to a large extent, relative attractiveness of foreign assets. Nonetheless, estimated impulse-response functions point to a large but short-lived positive impact of global volatility on dollarization, which could reflect economic agents heightened concerns about spillover effects of global uncertainty on the domestic economy.
External Shocks Policies And Tail Shifts In Real Exchange Rates
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Author : Mr. Nicolas E Magud
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-06-23
External Shocks Policies And Tail Shifts In Real Exchange Rates written by Mr. Nicolas E Magud and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-06-23 with Business & Economics categories.
We use panel quantile regressions to study extreme (rather than average) movements in the distribution of the real effective exchange rate (REER) of small open economies. We document that global uncertainty (VIX) and global financial conditions (U.S. monetary policy) shocks have a strong impact on the distribution of the REER changes, with larger impacts in the tails of the distribution, and especially in economies with shallower FX markets, lower central bank credibility, and higher credit risk (i.e., weaker macro fundamentals). Foreign exchange intervention (FXI) partially offsets the impact of these shocks, especially in the left tail (large depreciations) and particularly in economies with weaker fundamentals but, more importantly, when FXI is used sporadically. Thus, our results highlight the importance of deepening FX markets, improving central bank credibility, and strengthening macro fundamentals against the potential dynamic trade-offs of overreliance on a policy that would exacerbate the previously mentioned frictions. While our results point to low effectiveness of capital flow management in preventing large REER movements, they seem to enable more impactful foreign exchange intervention in the immediate aftermath of shocks.
Measuring Global And Country Specific Uncertainty
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Author : Ezgi O. Ozturk
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-10-30
Measuring Global And Country Specific Uncertainty written by Ezgi O. Ozturk and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-10-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.
Foreign Exchange Intervention Under Policy Uncertainty
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Author : Gustavo Adler
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-03-17
Foreign Exchange Intervention Under Policy Uncertainty written by Gustavo Adler and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-17 with Business & Economics categories.
We study the use of foreign exchange (FX) intervention as an additional policy instrument in an environment with learning, where agents infer the central bank policy rules from its policy actions. Under full information, a central bank focused on stabilizing output and inflation can achieve better outcomes by using FX intervention as an additional policy tool. Under policy uncertainty, where agents perceive that monetary policy may also have exchange rate stabilization goals, the use of FX intervention entails a trade-off, reducing output volatility while increasing inflation volatility. While having an additional policy tool is always beneficial, we find that the optimal magnitude of intervention is higher in monetary policy regimes with lower uncertainty. These results indicate that the benefits of using FX intervention as an additional stabilization tool are greater in regimes where monetary policy is credibly focused on output and inflation stabilization.
International Macroeconomics In The Wake Of The Global Financial Crisis
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Author : Laurent Ferrara
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-06-13
International Macroeconomics In The Wake Of The Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-13 with Business & Economics categories.
This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty
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Author : Jagdeep S. Bhandari
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 1987
Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty written by Jagdeep S. Bhandari and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1987 with Business & Economics categories.
These twelve essays take up economic management under flexible exchange rates in the presence of uncertainty. Nearly all of the contributions adopt a rational expectations framework, focusing on the stochastic aspects of the assumption and exploring the variability of, for example, output and prices in relation to the variability of various external disturbances.Jagdeep Bhandari is Associate Professor of International Economics at West Virginia University.