Global Value Chain And Inflation Dynamics
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Global Value Chain And Inflation Dynamics
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Author : Vu Chau
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-22
Global Value Chain And Inflation Dynamics written by Vu Chau and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-22 with Business & Economics categories.
We study the inflationary impacts of pandemic lockdown shocks and fiscal and monetary stimulus during 2020-2022 using a novel harmonized dataset of sectoral producer price inflation and input-output linkages for more than 1000 sectors in 53 countries. The inflationary impact of shocks is identified via a Bartik shift-share design, where shares reflect the heterogeneous sectoral exposure to shocks and are derived from a macroeconomic model of international production network. We find that pandemic lockdowns, and subsequent reopening policies, were the most dominant driver of global inflation in this period, especially through their impact on aggregate demand. We provide a decomposition of lockdown shock by sources, and find that between 20-30 percent of the demand effect of lockdown/reopening is due to spillover from abroad. Finally, while fiscal and monetary policies played an important role in preventing deflation in 2020, their effects diminished in the recovery years.
An Investment Perspective On Global Value Chains
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Author : Christine Zhenwei Qiang
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-06-25
An Investment Perspective On Global Value Chains written by Christine Zhenwei Qiang and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-06-25 with Business & Economics categories.
This report investigates the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in helping developing countries participate in global value chains (GVCs). It combines the perspectives and strategies from three types of players: multinational corporations, domestic firms and governments. It aims to provide practical guidance for developing countries to develop strategies that use FDI to strengthen GVC participation and upgrading. The report has six main chapters: 1.FDI and GVCs. Assesses the trade-investment nexus and analyzes the effect of FDI in countries’ GVC participation and upgrading at the country level. 2.MNCs shape GVC development. Highlights MNCs' contribution to global economy and how their business strategies shape the evolution of GVCs. The chapter also compares MNCs' business strategies in terms of outsourcing and offshoring, risk mitigation and increasing market power across GVC archetypes. 3.Domestic firm perspectives on GVC participation. Looks at the various paths domestic firms can take to internationalize their production and trade. Investigates domestic firm characteristics that predict higher GVC participation, and the effect of GVC participation on firm performance. 4.Investment policy and promotion: what is in a government’s toolbox? Summarizes the various policy instruments governments have at their disposal to help attract MNCs to their country and facilitate GVC participation of domestic firms. 5.Integrating countries into GVCs. Draws on a range of case studies to illustrate how governments can develop coherent strategies and policy packages to integrate their countries into GVCs.6.FDI and GVCs in the wake of COVID-19. Reflects the impact of COVID-19 on FDI and GVCs, the response from multinationals and suppliers, and the implications for GVC reconfiguration. In addition, there are seven case studies that offer more nuanced analysis on the GVC participation in selected countries and sectors:•Five qualitative case studies: Five countries have been selected that managed to use FDI to stimulate GVC participation using a range of approaches. By design, these five countries also cover five different GVC archetypes. These countries are: (1) Kenya (horticulture); (2) Dominican Republic (textiles); (3) Mauritius (tourism); (4) Malaysia (electronics); (5) China (software).•Two quantitative case studies: Rwanda, West-Bengal (India). These use a combination of firm- and transaction level datasets to study firm-level dynamics that explain the role of multinational and domestic firms across GVCs.
Understanding Inflation Dynamics The Role Of Global Shocks In Cemac
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Author : Johanna Tiedemann
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-08
Understanding Inflation Dynamics The Role Of Global Shocks In Cemac written by Johanna Tiedemann and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.
As in the rest of the world, inflation in CEMAC surged more quickly and persistently than expected during the 2021–23 period. This paper examines the drivers of inflation dynamics and the contribution of global shocks to inflation persistence in CEMAC. We use a Phillips curve framework combined with the local projections method. Our results confirm the prominent role of global factors in driving inflation dynamics. Global commodity food and oil price fluctuations, and shipping costs are the main factors explaining the large variability in headline inflation. Further, we find that global price shocks have sizable and persistent effects on domestic headline inflation, with differences in the magnitude and speed of pass-through. The pass-through from commodity food price fluctuations to headline inflation is higher and more persistent than that of other global price shocks, reflecting the large share of food in the consumption baskets, which makes inflation more vulnerable to direct effects of international food shocks, but also larger second-round effects.
Reshaping Global Value Chains In Light Of Covid 19
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Author : Paul Brenton
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2022-04-18
Reshaping Global Value Chains In Light Of Covid 19 written by Paul Brenton and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-04-18 with Business & Economics categories.
Global value chains (GVCs) have driven dramatic expansions in trade, productivity, and economic growth in developing countries over the past three decades. Reshaping Global Value Chains in Light of COVID-19: Implications for Trade and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries examines the economic impact of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic on GVCs and explores whether they can continue to be a driver of trade and development. The book undertakes the following:•Assesses what the impact of previous crises, such as the global financial crisis of 2008–09, can say about of the resilience of GVC firms to shocks •Examines what high-frequency data on trade flows can show about the impact of COVID-19 during the sharp global recession of 2020•Uses discussions with GVC firms to gain a deeper understanding of the impacts of—and their responses to—the COVID-19 shock •Explores simulations from a global economic model to assess the potential longer-term impacts of COVID-19 on low- and middle-income countries and key factors shaping the global economy, including the evolving role of China, the rise of trade restrictions, and policy responses to global warming•Asks what steps countries and international institutions can take to enhance the resilience of GVCs in low-income countries to future shocks.The analysis shows that well-operating GVCs are a source of resilience more than a source of vulnerability. Moreover, steps to maintain and enhance trade contribute to managing a crisis and recovery, while measures to reshore production make all countries worse off. This economic crisis offers countries an opportunity to reshape the global economy into a greener, more resilient, and inclusive system that is better equipped for a changing world. Trade is a powerful tool for achieving this aim.
Inflation Dynamics And Global Value Chains
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Author : François de Soyres
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Inflation Dynamics And Global Value Chains written by François de Soyres and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with Inflation (Finance) categories.
"The global economy has witnessed a decline in inflation and an increase in inflation synchronization since the early 1980s. This paper investigates the relationship between inflation synchronization and trade integration, and documents the strong link between inflation co-movement and Global Value Chain (GVC) participation. Using 35 years and both gross and value-added trade flows, evidence shows that an increase in production linkages, as proxied by trade in intermediate inputs, is strongly associated with higher inflation correlation. Moreover, backward GVC participation is associated with an increase in bilateral inflation co-movement while forward participation is linked with a higher correlation between domestic and worldwide inflation. The paper also finds evidence of the effect of trade integration in decreasing inflation levels."--Abstract.
Australia
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-01-18
Australia written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-01-18 with Business & Economics categories.
Australia’s post-pandemic recovery remained strong. However, growth is weakening on the heels of tighter macroeconomic policies and financial conditions. While inflation has peaked, it remains persistently high. Labor market shows signs of easing, and the positive output gap is narrowing. Increased cost of living started to weigh on household consumption. The economy remains resilient in the near term but confronts a secular productivity slowdown. Financial stability risks remain contained although pockets of vulnerability exist and risks of spillovers from global financial conditions have increased since the last Article IV.
Measuring And Analyzing The Impact Of Gvcs On Economic Development
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Author : World Trade Organization
language : en
Publisher: World Trade Organization
Release Date : 2017
Measuring And Analyzing The Impact Of Gvcs On Economic Development written by World Trade Organization and has been published by World Trade Organization this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with Political Science categories.
This report is about a huge contribution to our deepening understanding of what the global economy really means and how it is changing. The report helpfully distinguishes elements of an economy that are tradable and the large set that are non-tradable. Clearly the tradables set is expanding with the support of enabling technology. The report argues that connectivity in the networks that define the evolving architecture of GVCs is important. This Global Value Chain Development Report is the result of intensive and detailed work in assembling and analyzing data on the structure of economies and on how they are linked. It creates a much clearer picture of evolving patterns of independence. It also presents a much clearer picture of comparative advantage. --Publisher description.
This Is Going To Hurt Weather Anomalies Supply Chain Pressures And Inflation
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Author : Mr. Serhan Cevik
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-04-05
This Is Going To Hurt Weather Anomalies Supply Chain Pressures And Inflation written by Mr. Serhan Cevik and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-04-05 with Business & Economics categories.
As climate change accelerates, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events are expected to worsen and have greater adverse consequences for ecosystems, physical infrastructure, and economic activity across the world. This paper investigates how weather anomalies affect global supply chains and inflation dynamics. Using monthly data for six large and well-diversified economies (China, the Euro area, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States) over the period 1997-2021, we implement a structural vector autoregressive model and document that weather anomalies could disrupt supply chains and subsequently lead to inflationary pressures. Our results—based on high-frequency data and robust to alternative estimation methodologies—show that these effects vary across countries, depending on the severity of weather shocks and vulnerability to supply chain disruptions. The impact of weather shocks on supply chains and inflation dynamics is likely to become more pronounced with accelerating climate change that can have non-linear effects. These findings have important policy implications. Central bankers should consider the impact of weather anomalies on supply chains and inflation dynamics to prevent entrenching second-round effects and de-anchoring of inflation expectations. More directly, however, governments can invest more for climate change adaptation to strengthen critical infrastructure and thereby minimize supply chain disruptions.
Here Comes The Change The Role Of Global And Domestic Factors In Post Pandemic Inflation In Europe
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Author : Mahir Binici
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-12-09
Here Comes The Change The Role Of Global And Domestic Factors In Post Pandemic Inflation In Europe written by Mahir Binici and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-12-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Global inflation has surged to 7.5 percent in August 2022, from an average of 2.1 percent in the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, threatening to become an entrenched phenomenon. This paper disentangles the confluence of contributing factors to the post-pandemic rise in consumer price inflation, using monthly data and a battery of econometric methodologies covering a panel of 30 European countries over the period 2002-2022. We find that while global factors continue to shape inflation dynamics throughout Europe, country-specific factors, including monetary and fiscal policy responses to the crisis, have also gained greater prominence in determining consumer price inflation during the pandemic period. Coupled with increasing persistence in inflation, these structural shifts call for significant and an extended period of monetary tightening and fiscal realignment.
Inflation Dynamics In The Western Balkans
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Author : Gohar Minasyan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-03-03
Inflation Dynamics In The Western Balkans written by Gohar Minasyan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-03 with Business & Economics categories.
After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.