Growth At Risk Concept And Application In Imf Country Surveillance
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Growth At Risk Concept And Application In Imf Country Surveillance
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Author : Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-02-21
Growth At Risk Concept And Application In Imf Country Surveillance written by Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-21 with Business & Economics categories.
The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.
Growth At Risk
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Growth At Risk written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.
Growth At Risk Concept And Application In Imf Country Surveillance
DOWNLOAD
FREE 30 Days
Author : Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-02-21
Growth At Risk Concept And Application In Imf Country Surveillance written by Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-21 with Business & Economics categories.
The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review Background Paper On The Surveillance Priority Confronting Risks And Uncertainties
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-05-18
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review Background Paper On The Surveillance Priority Confronting Risks And Uncertainties written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-05-18 with Business & Economics categories.
The coverage of risks has become more systematic since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC): staff reports now regularly identify major risks and provide an assessment of their likelihood and economic impact, summarized in Risk Assessment Matrices (RAM). But still limited attention is paid to the range of possible outcomes. Also, risk identification is useful only so much as to inform policy design to preemptively respond to relevant risks and/or better prepare for them. In this regard, policy recommendations in surveillance could be richer in considering various risk management approaches. To this end, progress is needed on two dimensions: • Increasing emphasis on the range of potential outcomes to improve policy design. • Encouraging more proactive policy advice on how to manage risks. Efforts should continue to leverage internal and external resources to support risk analysis and advice in surveillance.
Financial Conditions And Growth At Risk In The Eccu
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Author : Mr.Takuji Komatsuzaki
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-11-15
Financial Conditions And Growth At Risk In The Eccu written by Mr.Takuji Komatsuzaki and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-11-15 with Business & Economics categories.
We study the growth determinants in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU), using the Growth at Risk (GaR) framework with a focus on financial variables. We find that excessive bank credit growth is associated with lower future real GDP growth in the medium term especially on the low quantiles of growth distribution. Moreover, worsening of both global financial conditions and external conditions are associated with lower future growth in the short term, especially at the high quantiles of growth distribution. Country-specific results are broadly in line with ECCU-wide results, with some variation potentially due to the strong Citizenship-By-Investment program inflows and lack of credit union data. The establishment of a macroprudential framework in the ECCU would need to pay close attention to credit growth not only of banks but also credit unions and continue to monitor global and external conditions.
Macrofinancial Linkages And Growth At Risk In The Dominican Republic
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Author : Olga Bespalova
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-11-13
Macrofinancial Linkages And Growth At Risk In The Dominican Republic written by Olga Bespalova and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-11-13 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) methodology to examine how macrofinancial conditions affect the growth outlook and its probability distribution. Using this approach, we evaluate risks to GDP growth in the Dominican Republic using quarterly data for 1996-2018. We group macrofinancial conditions in five principal determinants, based on 32 indicators. The Dominican Republic’s growth distribution appears most vulnerable to negative shocks to domestic financial conditions, domestic leverage, domestic demand, and external demand, with additional repercussions from the external cost of borrowing in the longer run. Our findings show that domestic monetary policy plays a particularly important role in reducing growth vulnerabilities when the economy is weak.
Mis Managing Macroprudential Expectations
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Author : John H. Morris
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2023-07-01
Mis Managing Macroprudential Expectations written by John H. Morris and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-07-01 with Political Science categories.
Using a range of calculative devices, (Mis)managing Macroprudential Expectations explores the methods used by central banks to predict and govern the tail risks that could impact financial stability. Through an in-depth case study, the book utilises empirically-informed theoretical analysis to capture these low-probability and high-impact events, and offers a novel conceptualisation of the role of risk modelling within the macroprudential policy agenda.
Dominican Republic
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-07-08
Dominican Republic written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-07-08 with Business & Economics categories.
As in the past, the Dominican Republic’s dynamic economy continued to show remarkable resilience to shocks, rebounding strongly from the impact of the pandemic. Sound policies, a nimble vaccination campaign and a well-attuned reopening—including international travel—allowed the economy to make the most of the global rebound. The recovery has been broad based; GDP was about 5 percent above pre-pandemic levels as of end-2021. The country maintained sound market access and benefitted from Fund support through the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI).
Powering The Digital Economy Opportunities And Risks Of Artificial Intelligence In Finance
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Author : El Bachir Boukherouaa
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-10-22
Powering The Digital Economy Opportunities And Risks Of Artificial Intelligence In Finance written by El Bachir Boukherouaa and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-10-22 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
Singapore
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-07-15
Singapore written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-15 with Business & Economics categories.
The 2019 Article IV Consultation with Singapore analyses that Singapore’s growth is expected to continue to moderate as export momentum slows and growth drivers shift back to domestic demand. Risks to the near-term outlook are tilted to the downside and arise mainly from external sources. Over the medium term, modern services are expected to become increasingly important in driving growth. The report highlights that policies should be geared toward addressing the challenges to growth and inequality posed by shifts in the global economy, aging, and technological change, which could also promote external rebalancing. Policies have been aimed at boosting growth while promoting greater equity. The authorities are implementing measures to turn Singapore into a global innovation hub, redoubling efforts to boost labor productivity through investment in human, physical and organizational capital, and digitalization. Singapore is also emerging as a regional leader in fintech, supported by Monetary Authority of Singapore. Meanwhile, social policies are being updated, with the aim of raising wages and standards of living for lower-skilled Singaporeans.